2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
	County results; Daines: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%; Gillan: 50–60% 60–70%
U.S. Representative before election; Denny Rehberg; Republican	Elected U.S. Representative ; Steve Daines; Republican

Montana's at-large congressional district

The 2012 congressional election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, to determine who would represent the state of Montana in the United States House of Representatives. At the time, Montana had one seat in the House. Incumbent Denny Rehberg did not run for reelection, choosing instead to run unsuccessfully for the seat in the U.S. Senate.^[1] A primary election was held on June 5, 2012.^[2] Republican businessman Steve Daines won the open seat.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Steve Daines, businessman and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2008^[3]

Eliminated in primary

Eric Brosten, author and engineer^[4]
Vincent Melkus, student at Colorado Mesa University and former Marine^[5]

Withdrawn

John Abarr, white supremacist and Ku Klux Klan organizer.^[6]^[7]

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Abarr	Steve Daines	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[8]	June 16–19, 2011	382	± 5.0%	14%	22%	—	64%

Results

Republican primary results^[9]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Steve Daines	82,843	71.2
	Republican	Eric Brosten	21,012	18.1
	Republican	Vincent Melkus	12,420	10.7
Total votes			116,275	100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Kim Gillan, state senator from Billings^[10]

Eliminated in primary

Sam Rankin, real estate salesman and candidate for this seat in 2010^[11]
Diane Smith, businesswoman^[12]
Dave Strohmaier, Missoula city council member^[13]
Rob Stutz, attorney^[14]
Jason Ward, farmer and construction manager for the Crow Nation^[15]
Franke Wilmer, state representative from Bozeman^[16]

Declined

Melinda Gopher, writer and candidate for this seat in 2010^[17]
Brian Schweitzer, Governor of Montana^[18]^[19]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kim Gillan	Sam Rankin	Diane Smith	Dave Strohmaier	Rob Stutz	Jason Ward	Franke Wilmer	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[20]	April 26–29, 2012	332	± 5.4%	21%	4%	13%	9%	1%	0%	11%	41%

Results

Democratic primary results^[9]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Kim Gillan	25,077	31.0
	Democratic	Franke Wilmer	14,836	18.4
	Democratic	Diane Smith	12,618	15.6
	Democratic	Dave Strohmaier	11,366	14.1
	Democratic	Sam Rankin	9,382	11.6
	Democratic	Jason Ward	4,959	6.1
	Democratic	Rob Stutz	2,586	3.2
Total votes			80,824	100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

David Kaiser^[21]

General election

Endorsements

Steve Daines (R)

Organizations

National Republican Congressional Committee "Vanguard" Program^[22]

Kim Gillan (D)

Organizations

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Red to Blue" Program^[23]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Daines (R)	Kim Gillan (D)	David Kaiser (L)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)^[24]	November 2–3, 2012	737	± 3.6%	48%	44%	3%	4%
Mason-Dixon^[25]	October 29–31, 2012	625	± 4.0%	51%	40%	1%	8%
Pharos Research Group^[26]	October 26–28, 2012	799	± 4.9%	52%	45%	–	4%
Pharos Research Group^[27]	October 19–21, 2012	400	± 4.9%	47%	41%	–	12%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[28]	October 8–10, 2012	737	± 3.6%	43%	34%	10%	12%
MSU-Billings^[29]	September 27–30, 2012	477	± 4.6%	36%	23%	3%	38%
Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC)^[30]	September 23–26, 2012	600	± 4.0%	36%	34%	5%	25%
Mason-Dixon^[31]	September 17–19, 2012	625	± 4.0%	46%	38%	2%	14%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[32]	September 10–11, 2012	656	± 3.8%	40%	37%	9%	15%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[33]	April 26–29, 2012	934	± 3.2%	33%	27%	—	40%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[34]	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	35%	27%	—	38%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Abarr (R)	Kim Gillan (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (report)	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	30%	26%	—	44%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Abarr (R)	Franke Wilmer (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (report)	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	33%	25%	—	42%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Daines (R)	Franke Wilmer (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[20]	April 26–29, 2012	934	± 3.2%	36%	25%	—	39%
Public Policy Polling^[35]	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	35%	25%	—	40%

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[36]	Likely R	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg^[37]	Safe R	November 2, 2012
Roll Call^[38]	Likely R	November 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[39]	Likely R	November 5, 2012
NY Times^[40]	Safe R	November 4, 2012
RCP^[41]	Likely R	November 4, 2012
The Hill^[42]	Likely R	November 4, 2012

Results

Montana's at-large congressional district, 2012^[43]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Steve Daines	255,468	53.25%	−7.16%
	Democratic	Kim Gillan	204,939	42.72%	+8.88%
	Libertarian	David Kaiser	19,333	4.03%	−1.71%
Total votes			479,740	100.0%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Missoula (Largest city: Missoula)
Glacier (largest city: Cut Bank)
Roosevelt (largest city: Wolf Point)
Hill (largest city: Havre)
Blaine (largest city: Chinooko)

References

^ Johnson, Charles S. (February 5, 2011). "It's official: Rehberg says he's taking on Tester". Billings Gazette. Retrieved February 5, 2011.
^ "Montana 2012 Primary and General Election Calendar" (PDF). Secretary of State Linda McCulloch. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 10, 2011. Retrieved August 16, 2011.
^ Slate, Judy (February 3, 2011). "Bozeman's Steve Daines comments on switching from Senate to House race". KXLF.com. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved June 1, 2011.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (February 2, 2012). "Star Wars is top issue for GOP House candidate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved February 7, 2012.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (March 6, 2012). "Ex-Marine from Hardin files for Montana's U.S. House seat". Missoulian. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
^ Cates, Kristen. "More inclusive KKK chapter makes some suspicious". USA TODAY. Retrieved February 25, 2024.
^ "Republican Mont. candidate for Congress with KKK ties drops out due to lack of support". The Washington Post. October 5, 2011. Retrieved October 15, 2011.^{[dead link]}
^ Public Policy Polling
^ ^a ^b State of Montana. Official Canvas Retrieved December 20, 2022
^ Banks, Marnee (June 21, 2011). "Kim Gillan enters Democratic race for US House". KAJ18.com. Archived from the original on March 21, 2012. Retrieved June 21, 2011.
^ "Billings real estate agent Rankin joins U.S. House race as Demo". Independent Record. March 9, 2012. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
^ Dennison, Mike (November 3, 2011). "Whitefish businesswoman becomes 5th Democrat in U.S. House race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved November 11, 2011.
^ Weller, Allyson (June 18, 2011). "Strohmaier announces run for Congress". KPAX. Archived from the original on June 23, 2011. Retrieved June 20, 2011.
^ Banks, Marnee (August 10, 2011). "Helena attorney Rob Stutz announces run for US House". KRTV. Archived from the original on September 29, 2011. Retrieved August 16, 2011.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (January 20, 2012). "Crow tribal member files as Democrat for U.S. House seat". Missoulian. Retrieved January 25, 2012.
^ Banks, Marnee (February 1, 2011). "Wilmer of Bozeman announces U.S. House bid". KRTV.com. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved June 1, 2011.
^ "Gopher not running for Congress; she sets eye on Senate in 2014". Independent Record. March 14, 2012. Retrieved March 15, 2012.
^ Drucker, David M. (June 9, 2011). "Could Schweitzer Challenge Baucus in 2014?". Roll Call. Retrieved June 10, 2011.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (July 28, 2011). "Schweitzer says his future isn't in Congress". Billings Gazette. Retrieved August 2, 2011.
^ ^a ^b Public Policy Polling
^ Dennison, Mike (March 13, 2012). "Filing deadline: Busy day precedes busy election season". Independent Record. Retrieved March 15, 2012.
^ "CANDIDATES". gopyoungguns.com. Archived from the original on January 1, 2013. Retrieved January 16, 2023.
^ "RED TO BLUE 2012". DCCC. Archived from the original on October 26, 2012. Retrieved March 5, 2023.
^ Public Policy Polling (D)
^ Mason-Dixon
^ Pharos Research Group
^ Pharos Research Group
^ Public Policy Polling (D)
^ MSU-Billings
^ Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC)
^ Mason-Dixon
^ Public Policy Polling (D)
^ Public Policy Polling (D)
^ Public Policy Polling (D)
^ Public Policy Polling
^ "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com. November 5, 2012. Retrieved November 6, 2012.
^ "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. November 2, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
^ [1], as of November 4, 2012^[update]
^ Crystal Ball, as of November 5, 2012^[update]
^ House Race Ratings, The New York Times, as of November 4, 2012^[update]
^ [2], as of November 4, 2012^[update]
^ "House Ratings". The Hill. November 3, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
^ "2012 General Canvass" (PDF). Retrieved February 23, 2019.

External links

Elections at the Montana Secretary of State
United States House of Representatives elections in Montana, 2012 at Ballotpedia
Montana U.S. House at OurCampaigns.com
Campaign contributions for U.S. Congressional races in Montana at OpenSecrets
Outside spending at the Sunlight Foundation

Campaign websites

[1] Johnson, Charles S. (February 5, 2011). "It's official: Rehberg says he's taking on Tester". Billings Gazette. Retrieved February 5, 2011.

[2] "Montana 2012 Primary and General Election Calendar" (PDF). Secretary of State Linda McCulloch. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 10, 2011. Retrieved August 16, 2011.

[3] Slate, Judy (February 3, 2011). "Bozeman's Steve Daines comments on switching from Senate to House race". KXLF.com. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved June 1, 2011.

[4] Johnson, Charles S. (February 2, 2012). "Star Wars is top issue for GOP House candidate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved February 7, 2012.

[5] Johnson, Charles S. (March 6, 2012). "Ex-Marine from Hardin files for Montana's U.S. House seat". Missoulian. Retrieved March 11, 2012.

[6] Cates, Kristen. "More inclusive KKK chapter makes some suspicious". USA TODAY. Retrieved February 25, 2024.

[7] "Republican Mont. candidate for Congress with KKK ties drops out due to lack of support". The Washington Post. October 5, 2011. Retrieved October 15, 2011.^{[dead link]}

[8] Public Policy Polling

[MTSOS_prim-9] State of Montana. Official Canvas Retrieved December 20, 2022

[10] Banks, Marnee (June 21, 2011). "Kim Gillan enters Democratic race for US House". KAJ18.com. Archived from the original on March 21, 2012. Retrieved June 21, 2011.

[11] "Billings real estate agent Rankin joins U.S. House race as Demo". Independent Record. March 9, 2012. Retrieved March 11, 2012.

[12] Dennison, Mike (November 3, 2011). "Whitefish businesswoman becomes 5th Democrat in U.S. House race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved November 11, 2011.

[13] Weller, Allyson (June 18, 2011). "Strohmaier announces run for Congress". KPAX. Archived from the original on June 23, 2011. Retrieved June 20, 2011.

[14] Banks, Marnee (August 10, 2011). "Helena attorney Rob Stutz announces run for US House". KRTV. Archived from the original on September 29, 2011. Retrieved August 16, 2011.

[15] Johnson, Charles S. (January 20, 2012). "Crow tribal member files as Democrat for U.S. House seat". Missoulian. Retrieved January 25, 2012.

[16] Banks, Marnee (February 1, 2011). "Wilmer of Bozeman announces U.S. House bid". KRTV.com. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved June 1, 2011.

[17] "Gopher not running for Congress; she sets eye on Senate in 2014". Independent Record. March 14, 2012. Retrieved March 15, 2012.

[18] Drucker, David M. (June 9, 2011). "Could Schweitzer Challenge Baucus in 2014?". Roll Call. Retrieved June 10, 2011.

[19] Johnson, Charles S. (July 28, 2011). "Schweitzer says his future isn't in Congress". Billings Gazette. Retrieved August 2, 2011.

[Public_Policy_Polling-20] Public Policy Polling

[21] Dennison, Mike (March 13, 2012). "Filing deadline: Busy day precedes busy election season". Independent Record. Retrieved March 15, 2012.

[YoungGuns-22] "CANDIDATES". gopyoungguns.com. Archived from the original on January 1, 2013. Retrieved January 16, 2023.

[DCCC-23] "RED TO BLUE 2012". DCCC. Archived from the original on October 26, 2012. Retrieved March 5, 2023.

[24] Public Policy Polling (D)

[25] Mason-Dixon

[26] Pharos Research Group

[27] Pharos Research Group

[28] Public Policy Polling (D)

[29] MSU-Billings

[30] Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC)

[31] Mason-Dixon

[32] Public Policy Polling (D)

[33] Public Policy Polling (D)

[34] Public Policy Polling (D)

[35] Public Policy Polling

[Cook-36] "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com. November 5, 2012. Retrieved November 6, 2012.

[House_Ratings-37] "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. November 2, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.

[rollcall.com-38] [1], as of November 4, 2012^[update]

[Crystal_Ball-39] Crystal Ball, as of November 5, 2012^[update]

[House_Race_Ratings-40] House Race Ratings, The New York Times, as of November 4, 2012^[update]

[realclearpolitics.com-41] [2], as of November 4, 2012^[update]

[thehill.com-42] "House Ratings". The Hill. November 3, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.

[43] "2012 General Canvass" (PDF). Retrieved February 23, 2019.

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