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2016 United States Senate election in South Carolina

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2016 United States Senate election in South Carolina
← 2014
(special)		 November 8, 2016 2022 →
 
Nominee Tim Scott Thomas Dixon
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,241,609 757,022
Percentage 60.57% 36.93%
Scott:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Dixon:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      No votes
U.S. senator before election

Tim Scott
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Tim Scott
Republican

Elections in South Carolina
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The 2016 United States Senate election in South Carolina was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of South Carolina, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Both major parties held their primaries on June 14.

Incumbent Republican Senator Tim Scott won re-election to a first full term in office.[1]

This was the second U.S. Senate election in South Carolina (and the second of three consecutive elections for this seat) where both major party nominees were black, and the third overall since the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment.[a]

Background

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Two-term Republican senator Jim DeMint was re-elected with 61.48% of the vote in 2010. He resigned at the start of 2013 to become President of The Heritage Foundation and U.S. Representative Tim Scott of South Carolina's 1st congressional district was appointed to replace him by Governor Nikki Haley.[2] Scott subsequently won the special election in 2014 for the remaining two years of the term.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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  • Thomas Dixon, pastor and community activist (also running with Green Party nomination)[3]

Declined

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General election

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Candidates

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Debates

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Dates Location Scott Dixon Link
October 24, 2016 Greenville, South Carolina Participant Participant [8]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[9] Safe R November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] Safe R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[11] Safe R November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[12] Safe R November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[13] Safe R November 7, 2016

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tim
Scott (R) 		Thomas
Dixon (D) 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey[14] November 1–7, 2016 1,698 ± 4.6% 59% 38% – 3%
SurveyMonkey[15] October 31–November 6, 2016 1,642 ± 4.6% 58% 39% – 3%
SurveyMonkey[16] October 28–November 3, 2016 1,583 ± 4.6% 58% 39% – 3%
SurveyMonkey[17] October 27–November 2, 2016 1,501 ± 4.6% 58% 39% – 3%
SurveyMonkey[18] October 26–November 1, 2016 1,588 ± 4.6% 57% 40% – 3%
SurveyMonkey[19] October 25–31, 2016 1,762 ± 4.6% 56% 39% – 5%
Starboard Communications (R)[20] September 7–9, 2016 600 ± 4.8% 58% 22% – 16%
Public Policy Polling[21] August 9–10, 2016 1,290 ± 2.7% 45% 30%[22] 6%[23] 20%
Hypothetical polling

with Joyce Dickerson

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tim
Scott (R) 		Joyce
Dickerson (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[24] November 7–8, 2015 1,290 ± 2.7% 53% 25% 23%

with Bakari Sellers

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tim
Scott (R) 		Bakari
Sellers (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[25] February 12–15, 2015 868 ± 3.3% 56% 28% 16%

with Leon Lott

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tim
Scott (R) 		Leon
Lott (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[25] February 12–15, 2015 868 ± 3.3% 54% 27% 19%

with Jim Hodges

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tim
Scott (R) 		Jim
Hodges (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[25] February 12–15, 2015 868 ± 3.3% 54% 32% 15%

Results

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United States Senate election in South Carolina, 2016[26][27]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Tim Scott (incumbent) 1,241,609 60.57% −0.55%
Democratic Thomas Dixon[28] 757,022 36.93% −0.16%
Libertarian Bill Bledsoe[29] 37,482 1.83% N/A
American Michael Scarborough 11,923 0.58% −1.17%
n/a Write-ins 1,857 0.09% +0.05%
Total votes 2,049,893 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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By congressional district

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Scott won 6 of 7 congressional districts.[30]

District Scott Dixon Representative
1st 65% 33% Mark Sanford
2nd 63% 34% Joe Wilson
3rd 71% 27% Jeff Duncan
4th 67% 30% Trey Gowdy
5th 59% 38% Mick Mulvaney
6th 35% 63% Jim Clyburn
7th 61% 37% Tom Rice

References

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  1. ^ a b Emily Cahn; Alexis Levinson (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 29, 2015. Retrieved January 29, 2015.
  2. ^ Jeff Zeleny (December 17, 2012). "Rep. Tim Scott Chosen to Replace Jim DeMint as South Carolina Senator". The New York Times.
  3. ^ Rindge, Brenda (February 22, 2016). "Thomas Dixon to challenge U.S. Sen. Tim Scott". The Post and Courier. Archived from the original on October 13, 2016. Retrieved February 23, 2016.
  4. ^ "SOUTH CAROLINA: Richland Co Councilwoman & '14 nom Joyce Dickerson (D) back for a second run vs US Sen Tim Scott (R)". Politics1. Twitter. November 2, 2015. Retrieved March 14, 2016.
  5. ^ "Candidate Listing for the 11/8/2016 Statewide General Election". South Carolina Election Commission. Retrieved March 18, 2016.
  6. ^ a b c d "Candidate Listing for the 11/8/2016 Statewide General Election". South Carolina Election Commission. Retrieved August 14, 2016.
  7. ^ Crowder, Mike (May 15, 2016). "American Party of SC nominates candidates for a handful of offices". WRHI. Retrieved August 9, 2016.
  8. ^ Full debate - C-SPAN
  9. ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
  10. ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  11. ^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  12. ^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  13. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  14. ^ SurveyMonkey
  15. ^ SurveyMonkey
  16. ^ SurveyMonkey
  17. ^ SurveyMonkey
  18. ^ SurveyMonkey
  19. ^ SurveyMonkey
  20. ^ Starboard Communications (R) Archived September 14, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  21. ^ Public Policy Polling
  22. ^ Fusion voting total- 28% as D, 2% as G
  23. ^ Bill Bledsoe (L) with 4% and Michael Scarborough (A) with 2%
  24. ^ Public Policy Polling
  25. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  26. ^ "2016 Statewide General Election official results". South Carolina State Election Commission. Retrieved December 20, 2016.
  27. ^ "2016 South Carolina Senatorial Election Turnout Data". Archived from the original on December 20, 2016. Retrieved December 10, 2016.
  28. ^ Aggregated total includes 37,610 votes Dixon received under the Working Families Party, and 14,872 votes received under the Green Party.
  29. ^ Aggregated total includes 12,652 votes received under the Constitution Party.
  30. ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 19, 2024.

Notes

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  1. ^ After Illinois in 2004 and South Carolina in 2014.
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