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Summary

Description
English: Estimates of how much processing power is needed to emulate a human brain at various levels, along with the fastest supercomputer from TOP500 mapped by year, and a trendline. Exponential plot, with assumption of doubling of computational power every 1.1 years for the trendline.
Date
Source Own work, data from [1], PPTSuperComputersPRINT.jpg, and [2].
Author Tga.D
SVG development
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The SVG code is valid.
 
This chart was created with Gnuplot 5.2
 
This chart uses translateable embedded text.
Source code
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Gnuplot code

set terminal svg size 800 600 fname "Times,13"
set output "Estimations of Human Brain Emulation Required Performance.svg"
set notitle
set key reverse Left left at 1993, 10**40 noautotitles box # good chunk of whitespace to put the key in
set datafile separator ","

set logscale y # use a logarithmic scale, for easier visualization of exponential growth
set format y "10^{%T}"
set yrange[10**9:10**45]
set ylabel "Flop/s"

set xrange [1990:2065]
set xlabel "Year"
set xtics 1990,5,2065
set mxtics 5
#set grid # I think it looks better without, but it's a matter of preference

# labels for each of the levels of emulation
set label "Analog network population model" at 2010, 10**14.5 left
set label "Spiking neural network" at 2010, 10**17.5 right
set label "Electrophysiology" at 2035, 10**22.5 right
set label "Metabolome" at 2047, 10**25.5 right
set label "Proteome" at 2050, 10**26.5 right
set label "States of protein complexes" at 2054, 10**27.5 right
set label "Distribution of complexes" at 2064, 10**30.5 right
set label "Stochastic behavior of single molecules" at 2064, 10**42.5 right

set label "Functional Simulation" at 2020, 10**16.5 left
set label "Neural Simulation" at 2030, 10**19.5 left

# best-fit is as of June 2022 list, to two sigfigs
# horizontal lines plotted to represent levels of emulation
# plot of historical TOP500 #1's stored in a .csv
# colors and sizes picked from what I thought was easiest to see
# titles done for one of each type of line, for the key
plot 87000000000.0*(2**((x-1993)/1.2)) lw 6 lc 0 w lines title "Trendline (doubling every 1.2 years)",\
     10**15 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \
     10**18 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \
     10**22 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \
     10**25 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \
     10**26 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \
     10**27 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \
     10**30 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \
     10**43 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6" title "Sandberg, Bostrom estimates (2008)",\
     10**16 ls 2 dt (50,10) lc rgb "#89CE00", \
     10**19 ls 2 dt (50,10) lt rgb "#89CE00" title "Kurzweil estimates (2005)",\
     "TOP500.csv" using 1:2 ls 1 lt rgb "#B51963" pt 7 ps .5 with linespoints title "Fastest Supercomputer (TOP500 #1)"

Data

The #1 computer over the years from TOP500, used to generate the supercomputer line at the end of the Gnuplot code. The name of each supercomputer is in the file, but unused in the code/chart. Whole number years represent a June list, .5 represents a November list. 

Year,Flop/s,Name
1993,59700000000,CM-5/1024
1993.5,124000000000,Numerical Wind Tunnel
1994,143400000000,XP/S140
1994.5,170000000000,Numerical Wind Tunnel
1996,220400000000,SR2201/1024
1996.5,368200000000,CP-PACS/2048
1997,1068000000000,ASCI Red
1997.5,1338000000000,ASCI Red
1999,2121000000000,ASCI Red
1999.5,2379000000000,ASCI Red
2000.5,4938000000000,ASCI White
2001,7226000000000,ASCI White
2002,35860000000000,Earth-Simulator
2004.5,70720000000000,BlueGene/L beta-System
2005,136800000000000,BlueGene/L
2005.5,280600000000000,BlueGene/L
2007.5,478200000000000,BlueGene/L
2008,1026000000000000,Roadrunner
2008.5,1105000000000000,Roadrunner
2009.5,1759000000000000,Jaguar
2010.5,2566000000000000,Tianhe-1A
2011,8162000000000000,K computer
2011.5,10510000000000000,K computer
2012,16324800000000000,Sequoia
2012.5,17590000000000000,Titan
2013,33862700000000000,Tianhe-2A
2016,93014600000000000,Sunway TaihuLight
2018,122300000000000000,Summit
2018.5,143500000000000000,Summit
2020,415530000000000000,Fugaku
2020.5,442000000000000000,Fugaku
2022,1102000000000000000,Frontier

Licensing

I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publish it under the following license:
w:en:Creative Commons
attribution share alike
This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.
You are free:
  • to share – to copy, distribute and transmit the work
  • to remix – to adapt the work
Under the following conditions:
  • attribution – You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
  • share alike – If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same or compatible license as the original.

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23 December 2012

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File history

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Date/TimeThumbnailDimensionsUserComment
current00:40, 22 February 2023Thumbnail for version as of 00:40, 22 February 2023800 × 600 (49 KB)Tga.Dupdated data, fixed colors and styles to be more color blind-friendly
16:11, 7 March 2022Thumbnail for version as of 16:11, 7 March 2022800 × 600 (37 KB)Daemon2010Added Fugaku
06:32, 20 February 2019Thumbnail for version as of 06:32, 20 February 2019800 × 600 (45 KB)Tga.DIncrease font size; adjust label positions
06:15, 20 February 2019Thumbnail for version as of 06:15, 20 February 2019800 × 600 (45 KB)Tga.DRegenerated with a newer version of gnuplot, and more recent TOP500 data. Opted to not update the trendline, as the divergence from expected seems more relevant.
22:20, 18 June 2013Thumbnail for version as of 22:20, 18 June 2013800 × 600 (34 KB)Tga.DNew #1 on the TOP 500 June 2013 list.
01:07, 24 December 2012Thumbnail for version as of 01:07, 24 December 2012800 × 600 (34 KB)Tga.Dlarge mediawiki-generated png versions had messed up spacing in the key, switching the order to see if it fixes it
00:29, 24 December 2012Thumbnail for version as of 00:29, 24 December 2012800 × 600 (34 KB)Tga.DUser created page with UploadWizard

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