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2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

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2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

← 2008 November 2, 2010 2012 →
 
Nominee John Lynch John Stephen
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 239,390 205,433
Percentage 52.6% 45.1%

Lynch:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Stephen:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
     70–80%
Tie:      40–50%

Governor before election

John Lynch
Democratic

Elected Governor

John Lynch
Democratic

The 2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Lynch was re-elected to his fourth and final term.[1]

New Hampshire is one of only two states where the Governor serves for a two-year term, the other being neighboring Vermont. Lynch was re-elected by landslide margins in 2006 and 2008, and enjoyed historically high approval ratings. In early 2010, his approval rating showed a downward trend, with an April poll indicating that his approval had fallen below 50% (44% approve, 42% disapprove).[2] After the primary elections in mid-September, Lynch's approval rating rebounded (51% approve, 38% disapprove).[3]

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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  • John Lynch, incumbent Governor[4]
  • Timothy Robertson, state representative
  • Frank Sullivan

Results

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Democratic primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Lynch (incumbent) 49,832 87.5
Democratic Timothy Robertson 3,771 6.6
Democratic Frank Sullivan 3,377 5.9
Total votes 56,980 97.3

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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  • Frank Robert Emiro Sr., state representative
  • Jack Kimball, businessman[6]
  • John Stephen, former Health and Human Services Commissioner[7]
  • Karen Testerman, conservative activist[6]

Declined

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Polling

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Poll source Dates administered Jack
Kimball
John
Stephen
Karen
Testerman
Public Policy Polling[11] September 11–12, 2010 24% 45% 8%
Public Policy Polling[12] July 23–25, 2010 15% 26% 5%
Public Policy Polling[13] April 17–18, 2010 10% 29% 15%

Results

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Results by county:
  Stephen–60–70%
  Stephen–50–60%
  Stephen–40–50%
Republican primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Stephen 77,962 61.6
Republican Jack Kimball 31,581 24.9
Republican Karen Testerman 12,708 10.0
Republican Frank Emiro 4,394 3.5
Total votes 126,645 96.7

General election

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Candidates

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  • John Babiarz, Libertarian
  • John Lynch, Democratic
  • John Stephen, Republican

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[14] Tossup October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[15] Lean D October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[16] Lean D November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Lean D October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[18] Likely D October 28, 2010

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
John
Lynch (D)
John
Stephen (R)
Rasmussen Reports[19] October 27, 2010 51% 45%
WMUR/UNH[20] October 7–12, 2010 51% 38%
American Research Group[21] October 3–5, 2010 51% 41%
Granite State Poll[22] October 1, 2010 51% 34%
American Research Group[21] September 22–26, 2010 42% 40%
Rasmussen Reports[23] September 15, 2010 48% 46%
Public Policy Polling[24] September 11–12, 2010 51% 39%
Rasmussen Reports[25] August 5, 2010 50% 39%
Public Policy Polling[26] July 23–25, 2010 51% 34%
Rasmussen Reports[27] May 26, 2010 47% 35%
Public Policy Polling[28] April 17–18, 2010 47% 36%
Rasmussen Reports[29] April 7, 2010 47% 37%
Rasmussen Reports[30] March 8, 2010 50% 35%
Granite State Poll[31] January 27-February 3, 2010 50% 30%
Hypothetical polling

With Kimball

Poll Source Dates Administered John
Lynch (D)
Jack
Kimball (R)
Public Policy Polling[26] July 23–25, 2010 52% 29%
Rasmussen Reports[27] May 26, 2010 50% 31%
Public Policy Polling[28] April 17–18, 2010 47% 35%
Rasmussen Reports[29] April 7, 2010 50% 34%
Rasmussen Reports[30] March 8, 2010 51% 32%
Research 2000[32] February 1–3, 2010 59% 13%
Rasmussen Reports[33] January 12, 2010 51% 32%
Rasmussen Reports[34] September 14, 2009 52% 31%

With Morse

Poll Source Dates Administered John
Lynch (D)
Chuck
Morse (R)
Rasmussen Reports[34] September 14, 2009 51% 29%

With Sununu

Poll Source Dates Administered John
Lynch (D)
John
Sununu (R)
Granite State Poll[35] September 25-October 2, 2009 50% 37%
Rasmussen Reports[34] September 14, 2009 48% 43%

With Testerman

Poll Source Dates Administered John
Lynch (D)
Karen
Testerman (R)
Public Policy Polling[26] July 23–25, 2010 52% 28%
Rasmussen Reports[27] May 26, 2010 51% 32%
Public Policy Polling[28] April 17–18, 2010 47% 29%
Rasmussen Reports[29] April 7, 2010 50% 33%
Rasmussen Reports[30] March 8, 2010 54% 28%
Rasmussen Reports[33] January 12, 2010 53% 30%

Results

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2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic John Lynch (incumbent) 240,346 52.63% −17.57%
Republican John Stephen 205,616 45.03% +17.43%
Libertarian John Babiarz 10,089 2.21% +0.02%
Write-in 537 <0.01% N/A
Total votes 456,588 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

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References

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  1. ^ "NH Gov. John Lynch Running for 4th Term - FOX44NOW.COM - Burlington/Plattsburgh News, Weather and Sports". FOX44NOW.COM. Archived from the original on March 1, 2012. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  2. ^ "Lynch Leads All Republicans for Re-election in N.H." (PDF). Public Policy Polling. April 23, 2010.
  3. ^ http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_916.pdf [dead link]
  4. ^ "Gov. Lynch could face difficult re-election bid » New Hampshire » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA". Eagletribune.com. April 18, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.[permanent dead link]
  5. ^ a b "New Hampshire Gubernatorial Primary Results". Politico. September 14, 2010. Retrieved September 14, 2010.
  6. ^ a b John Distaso (December 9, 2009). "Testerman steps into the ring in governor's race". The Union Leader. Archived from the original on February 20, 2010. Retrieved January 1, 2010.
  7. ^ "John Stephen for Governor | New Leadership for New Hampshire". Johnstephen.com. Archived from the original on September 15, 2008. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  8. ^ "Republicans land top recruit in New Hampshire - The Scorecard". Politico.Com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  9. ^ "Frank Guinta for Congress". Teamguinta.com. July 29, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  10. ^ "Downing runs for sheriff, Morse for NH Senate » Latest News » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA". Eagletribune.com. May 27, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  11. ^ Public Policy Polling
  12. ^ Public Policy Polling
  13. ^ Public Policy Polling
  14. ^ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  15. ^ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  16. ^ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  17. ^ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  18. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  19. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  20. ^ WMUR/UNH
  21. ^ a b American Research Group
  22. ^ Granite State Poll
  23. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  24. ^ Public Policy Polling
  25. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  26. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  27. ^ a b c Rasmussen Reports
  28. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  29. ^ a b c Rasmussen Reports
  30. ^ a b c Rasmussen Reports
  31. ^ Granite State Poll
  32. ^ Research 2000
  33. ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
  34. ^ a b c Rasmussen Reports
  35. ^ Granite State Poll
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Official campaign sites (Archived)