Opinion polling for the 2004 Spanish general election
(Redirected from Opinion polling for the Spanish general election, 2004)
In the run up to the 2004 Spanish general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Spain during the term of the 7th Cortes Generales. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 12 March 2000, to the day the next election was held, on 14 March 2004.
Voting intention estimates refer mainly to a hypothetical Congress of Deputies election. Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" columns on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Electoral polling
[edit]Nationwide polling
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit]
Voting intention estimates
[edit]The table below lists nationwide voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 176 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies.
- Color key:
Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls Exit poll
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | 
|
|
|
|
PNV | BNG | 
|
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 general election | 14 Mar 2004 | — | 75.7 | 37.7 148 |
42.6 164 |
5.0 5 |
3.2 10 |
1.6 7 |
0.8 2 |
0.9 3 |
2.5 8 |
4.9 |
| Sigma Dos/Antena 3[a][1] | 14 Mar 2004 | ? | ? | 37.5 | 42.7 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 5.2 |
| Sigma Dos/Antena 3[1][2][3][4] | 14 Mar 2004 | 75,000 | ? | 38.5 153/161 |
41.0 152/159 |
5.4 6/7 |
3.3 10/11 |
1.6 7 |
1.0 3 |
0.9 3 |
2.3 6 |
2.5 |
| Ipsos–Eco/RTVE–FORTA[2][3][5] | 14 Mar 2004 | 210,000 | ? | 36.9 150/154 |
41.4 154/158 |
6.3 9/11 |
3.0 10/12 |
1.4 6/7 |
0.9 2 |
0.9 3/4 |
2.3 7/8 |
4.5 |
| TNS Demoscopia/Tele 5[3][6][7] | 11–13 Mar 2004 | ? | ? | 40.6 168/170 |
38.3 140/143 |
6.5 8/10 |
3.0 10/11 |
1.5 7 |
? 2 |
0.9 3 |
2.7 6/7 |
2.3 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[2][8] | 12 Mar 2004 | ? | ? | 39.5 154/160 |
40.5 151/159 |
6.1 9/10 |
3.0 10/11 |
1.2 7/8 |
? 2/3 |
? 3/4 |
? 5/6 |
1.0 |
| Sigma Dos[1] | 12 Mar 2004 | ? | ? | 40.3 | 39.6 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.8 | – | – | – | 0.7 |
| Sigma Dos[1] | 10 Mar 2004 | ? | ? | 41.2 | 38.4 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.8 | – | – | – | 2.8 |
| TNS Demoscopia/Tele 5[9] | 8 Mar 2004 | 3,031 | ? | 42.5 174/176 |
37.8 136/137 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | 4.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[10][11] | 7 Mar 2004 | ? | ? | 40.5 161/166 |
38.0 140/145 |
5.8 11/12 |
3.6 10/11 |
1.4 7/8 |
1.1 3 |
0.8 4 |
2.0 7/8 |
2.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[12][13][14] | 6 Mar 2004 | ? | ? | 40.5 | 37.0 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 3.5 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[15][16] | 5–6 Mar 2004 | 1,000 | ? | 42.1 168/173 |
37.6 138/144 |
5.3 6/8 |
3.4 11 |
1.8 7 |
1.2 3 |
1.0 3/4 |
2.0 5/6 |
4.5 |
| Celeste-Tel/La Razón[17][18] | 4–6 Mar 2004 | 601 | 74.1 | 42.9 173/177 |
37.6 136/141 |
6.6 9/10 |
3.4 11/12 |
1.7 7/8 |
1.1 2 |
0.9 3 |
1.6 5/6 |
5.3 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[19][20][21] | 5 Mar 2004 | ? | ? | 41.0 | 37.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 4.0 |
| Celeste-Tel/La Razón[22][23][24] | 17 Feb–5 Mar 2004 | 2,404 | 72.1 | 42.9 171/176 |
37.2 135/141 |
5.9 8 |
3.5 11/12 |
1.7 7/8 |
– | 0.9 3 |
1.5 5/6 |
5.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[25][26][27] | 4 Mar 2004 | ? | ? | 41.5 | 36.5 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 5.0 |
| TNS Demoscopia/Tele 5[28] | 3 Mar 2004 | ? | ? | 42.1 175/176 |
37.0 136 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | 5.1 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[29][30][31] | 3 Mar 2004 | ? | ? | 41.5 163/171 |
36.5 135/143 |
6.5 11/12 |
3.0 10/11 |
1.6 7/8 |
1.1 2/3 |
0.8 3/4 |
2.0 6/8 |
5.0 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[32] | 1–3 Mar 2004 | 2,071 | 72–73 | 42.5 169/173 |
37.3 135/140 |
7.1 10/12 |
3.2 10/11 |
1.5 7 |
– | – | 1.9 6/7 |
5.2 |
| Citigate Sanchís/La Gaceta[22][33][34] | 1–3 Mar 2004 | 1,007 | ? | 42.8 | 37.3 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | – | 1.4 | 2.2 | 5.5 |
| Noxa/La Vanguardia[35] | 27 Feb–3 Mar 2004 | 2,200 | ? | 41.4 162/167 |
39.2 143/147 |
6.3 9/10 |
3.0 10 |
2.1 7 |
? 2/3 |
1.0 4 |
2.1 5/6 |
2.2 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[36][37][38] | 2 Mar 2004 | ? | ? | 41.0 | 36.5 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 4.5 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[39][40] | 24 Feb–2 Mar 2004 | 12,500 | ? | 42.8 172/177 |
36.6 134/139 |
5.7 7/10 |
3.3 11 |
1.8 7 |
1.2 3 |
– | 1.9 5 |
6.2 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[41][42][43] | 1 Mar 2004 | ? | ? | 40.5 | 36.5 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 4.0 |
| Opina/El País[44][45][46] | 27 Feb–1 Mar 2004 | 4,000 | ? | 42.0 168/172 |
38.0 134/141 |
6.3 11 |
3.0 10/11 |
1.7 7/8 |
0.9 3 |
0.9 3/4 |
1.9 7 |
4.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[47][48][49] | 29 Feb 2004 | ? | ? | 40.5 164/169 |
36.5 138/144 |
7.0 12 |
3.5 10/11 |
1.5 7/8 |
1.0 2/3 |
1.0 3/4 |
1.5 6 |
4.0 |
| Ipsos–Eco/Prensa Ibérica [34][50][51] |
29 Feb 2004 | ? | ? | 41.3 170/174 |
37.4 131/135 |
6.5 ? |
3.4 ? |
1.4 ? |
– | – | – | 3.9 |
| Citigate Sanchís/La Gaceta[33][34] | 29 Feb 2004 | ? | ? | 44.4 | 36.8 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 2.1 | – | – | – | 7.6 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[52][53] | 28 Feb 2004 | ? | ? | 41.0 | 36.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | – | – | – | 4.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[54][55][56] | 27 Feb 2004 | ? | ? | 41.5 166/172 |
36.5 136/144 |
6.4 10/12 |
3.8 10/12 |
1.6 6/8 |
– | – | – | 5.0 |
| Atento STC/Expansión[57][58] | 23–27 Feb 2004 | ? | ? | 40.4 | 37.5 | 5.0 | – | – | – | – | – | 2.9 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[50][59][60][61] | 26 Feb 2004 | 3,000 | ? | 41.5 166/172 |
36.5 136/144 |
6.0 10/12 |
4.0 10/12 |
1.5 6/8 |
– | – | – | 5.0 |
| Infortécnica[62] | 26 Feb 2004 | 4,656 | ? | ? 165/175 |
? 130/138 |
? 13/17 |
? 9/12 |
? 7/8 |
? 2/4 |
? 4/6 |
? 4/6 |
? |
| Sigma Dos/Antena 3[1] | 25 Feb 2004 | ? | ? | 43.3 | 35.8 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | – | – | – | 7.5 |
| Celeste-Tel/La Razón[34][63][64] | 17–25 Feb 2004 | ? | ? | 42.2 170/171 |
36.1 141/142 |
5.4 6/7 |
3.9 11/13 |
1.8 8 |
? 3 |
? 4 |
? 2/3 |
6.1 |
| TNS Demoscopia/Vocento[65][66] | 10–25 Feb 2004 | 12,760 | 68–70 | 42.2 174/177 |
37.2 133/137 |
7.0 8/10 |
3.1 10/11 |
1.5 7 |
1.0 2 |
0.9 3 |
2.1 6/7 |
5.0 |
| Gallup[67] | 2–20 Feb 2004 | 2,036 | 69.1 | 43.9 | 35.1 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 8.8 |
| Metra Seis/Colpisa[68][69] | 6–16 Feb 2004 | 5,200 | 70–72 | 42.0 170/176 |
36.2 131/136 |
5.8 7/9 |
3.4 11/12 |
1.9 7/9 |
1.2 2/3 |
0.9 4/5 |
2.1 5/7 |
5.8 |
| CIS[70][71] | 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 | 24,109 | 75.1 | 42.2 176 |
35.5 131 |
6.6 10 |
3.7 12 |
1.8 7 |
1.2 3 |
1.0 3 |
1.9 6 |
6.7 |
| Noxa/La Vanguardia[72] | 6–12 Feb 2004 | 1,800 | ? | 42.6 164/169 |
38.6 138/142 |
5.8 9/10 |
2.8 9 |
2.2 8/9 |
? 4/5 |
0.9 4 |
2.0 6/7 |
4.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[73][74] | 11 Feb 2004 | 1,000 | ? | 41.0 | 38.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 3.0 |
| Sigma Dos/Antena 3[1][75][76] | 9–10 Feb 2004 | 1,000 | ? | 43.5 | 35.4 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 | – | – | – | 8.1 |
| Celeste-Tel/La Razón[34][64][50][77] | 8 Feb 2004 | ? | ? | 43.9 175 |
35.8 136/137 |
5.4 5/6 |
3.9 12/13 |
1.8 8 |
– | ? 4 |
? 3 |
8.1 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[1][78] | 8 Feb 2004 | ? | ? | 44.3 | 34.8 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 9.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[79][80] | 31 Jan 2004 | 1,000 | ? | 41.0 | 37.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 4.0 |
| Opina/El País[81][82] | 25 Jan 2004 | 3,000 | ? | 42.5 171/175 |
37.0 135/138 |
5.5 8/11 |
3.5 12 |
1.5 7 |
1.0 2 |
1.3 5 |
1.5 4 |
5.5 |
| Gallup[83] | 5–22 Jan 2004 | 2,028 | 68.3 | 41.9 | 36.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 5.7 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[84] | 19–21 Jan 2004 | 1,501 | ? | 43.0 170/175 |
38.0 138/142 |
5.5 8/10 |
3.0 10/11 |
1.5 7 |
– | – | – | 5.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[85][86][87] | 16 Jan 2004 | 1,000 | ? | 42.0 | 38.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 4.0 |
| Noxa/La Vanguardia[88] | 7–9 Jan 2004 | 1,000 | ? | 42.6 174 |
36.5 137 |
7.2 11 |
3.0 10 |
2.1 9 |
– | 1.0 4 |
1.4 3 |
6.1 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[1][89] | 4 Jan 2004 | ? | ? | 44.6 | 33.9 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | – | – | – | 10.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[90][91][92] | 2 Jan 2004 | ? | ? | 42.0 | 40.0 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 2.0 |
| Gallup[93][94] | 1–19 Dec 2003 | 2,025 | 70.0 | 44.1 | 35.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | – | – | – | 8.9 |
| Celeste-Tel/La Razón[34][95] | 7 Dec 2003 | ? | ? | 43.0 | 35.5 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 7.5 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[1][96] | 7 Dec 2003 | ? | ? | 44.8 | 33.7 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 11.1 |
| Opina/El País[97][98] | 7 Dec 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 42.0 | 39.0 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 3.0 |
| Metra Seis/Colpisa[95][34][99] | 2–5 Dec 2003 | ? | ? | 44.5 178/185 |
33.1 121/125 |
6.3 8/9 |
4.1 14/15 |
1.4 7 |
– | – | – | 11.4 |
| Gallup[100][101] | 4–25 Nov 2003 | 2,032 | 70.5 | 43.3 | 36.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | – | – | – | 6.8 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[102][103] | 19 Nov 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 42.0 | 39.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 3.0 |
| CIS[104][105] | 25–31 Oct 2003 | 2,488 | ? | 42.4 | 34.7 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | – | – | 7.7 |
| Gallup[106][107] | 3–22 Oct 2003 | 2,016 | 69.9 | 42.4 | 36.8 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.6 | – | – | – | 5.6 |
| Intercampo/GETS[108][109][110] | 17 Sep–2 Oct 2003 | 1,714 | ? | 43.8 | 34.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 9.5 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[95][34][111] | 28 Sep 2003 | ? | ? | 43.8 | 35.3 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 | – | – | – | 8.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[112][113] | 24 Sep 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 42.0 | 39.0 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 3.0 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[114] | 22–24 Sep 2003 | 1,502 | ? | 44.2 | 37.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.6 | – | – | – | 7.1 |
| Gallup[115] | 1–24 Sep 2003 | 2,027 | 71.2 | 43.0 | 35.3 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | – | – | – | 7.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[116][117][118] | 10 Sep 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 42.0 | 39.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 3.0 |
| Opina/El País[119][120][121] | 7 Sep 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 42.0 | 38.0 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 1.8 | – | – | – | 4.0 |
| Celeste-Tel/La Razón[95][34] | 7 Sep 2003 | ? | ? | 43.2 | 35.3 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.9 | – | – | – | 7.9 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[117][122] | 2 Sep 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 42.0 | 39.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 3.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[123][124] | 27 Aug 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 42.0 | 39.0 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 3.0 |
| Gallup[125] | 1–18 Aug 2003 | 2,026 | 70.2 | 43.6 | 36.5 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 7.1 |
| Gallup[126] | 1–24 Jul 2003 | 2,032 | 70.7 | 42.9 | 37.4 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | – | – | – | 5.5 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[95][34][127] | 20 Jul 2003 | ? | ? | 42.8 | 35.9 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 6.9 |
| CIS[128][129][130] | 2–8 Jul 2003 | 2,476 | ? | 41.2 | 35.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | – | – | 6.0 |
| Ibecom/La Razón[95][34] | 6 Jul 2003 | ? | ? | 43.6 | 33.9 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | – | – | – | 9.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[131][132] | 1 Jul 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 40.0 | 39.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 1.0 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[133][134] | 24–26 Jun 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 42.6 | 35.4 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.6 | – | – | – | 7.2 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[135] | 23–25 Jun 2003 | 1,502 | ? | 41.6 | 37.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | – | – | – | 4.1 |
| Gallup[136][137] | 2–20 Jun 2003 | 2,024 | 75.1 | 40.7 | 37.2 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | – | – | – | 3.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[138][139] | 11 Jun 2003 | ? | ? | 42.0 | 39.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 3.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[140] | 28 May 2003 | ? | ? | 41.0 | 41.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | – | – | – | Tie |
| Gallup[141][142] | 5–26 May 2003 | 2,026 | 73.4 | 38.4 | 38.8 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | – | – | – | 0.4 |
| 2003 local elections | 25 May 2003 | — | 67.8 | 34.3 | 34.8 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[140][143] | 15 May 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 39.0 | 39.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | – | – | – | Tie |
| CIS[144][145] | 24–30 Apr 2003 | 2,494 | 74.2 | 37.3 | 39.5 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | – | – | 2.2 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[95][146] | 27 Apr 2003 | ? | ? | 41.2 | 38.7 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 2.5 |
| Noxa/La Vanguardia[147] | 22–24 Apr 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 39.3 | 42.3 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 3.0 |
| Ipsos–Eco/ABC[148] | 22–24 Apr 2003 | 2,254 | ? | 33.9 | 39.4 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 5.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[149][150][151] | 23 Apr 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 38.0 | 42.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 4.0 |
| Gallup[152][153] | 1–22 Apr 2003 | 2,020 | 70.2 | 35.8 | 43.2 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | – | – | – | 7.4 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[150] | 2 Apr 2003 | ? | ? | 36.5 | 43.0 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 6.5 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[154] | 31 Mar–2 Apr 2003 | 1,503 | ? | 35.9 | 42.6 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 6.7 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[95][155] | 30 Mar 2003 | ? | ? | 38.6 | 40.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 2.1 |
| Opina/El País[156][157] | 25–26 Mar 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 36.0 | 42.0 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 6.0 |
| Gallup[158][159] | 3–25 Mar 2003 | 2,016 | 68.8 | 38.6 | 42.1 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | – | – | – | 3.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[160][161] | 21 Mar 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 37.0 | 43.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | – | – | – | 6.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[162][163] | 8 Mar 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 37.0 | 42.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 5.5 |
| Gallup[164][165] | 3–24 Feb 2003 | 2,028 | 68.5 | 39.7 | 39.8 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | – | – | – | 0.1 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[166][167] | 18–20 Feb 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 38.5 | 40.2 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 1.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[168][169] | 19 Feb 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 38.0 | 42.0 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | – | – | – | 4.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[170] | 6 Feb 2003 | ? | ? | 38.0 | 42.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | – | – | – | 4.0 |
| Opina/El País[171][172] | 3 Feb 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 40.0 | 42.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 2.0 |
| CIS[173][174] | 21–26 Jan 2003 | 2,480 | 74.4 | 39.8 | 37.3 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | – | – | 2.5 |
| Gallup[175][176] | 7–23 Jan 2003 | 2,034 | 68.9 | 39.6 | 39.5 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.6 | – | – | – | 0.1 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[177][178] | 22 Jan 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 41.0 | 41.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | – | – | – | Tie |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[167][179] | 20 Jan 2003 | ? | ? | 41.6 | 38.6 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | – | – | – | 3.0 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[180] | 13–16 Jan 2003 | 1,501 | ? | 40.4 | 39.0 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | – | – | – | 1.4 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[181][182][183] | 8 Jan 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 41.0 | 41.0 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | – | – | – | Tie |
| Gallup[184][185] | 2–23 Dec 2002 | 2,011 | 68.5 | 38.2 | 40.8 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.4 | – | – | – | 2.6 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[186][187][188] | 17 Dec 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 39.0 | 42.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 3.0 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[189][190] | 9–11 Dec 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 41.7 | 38.8 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | – | – | – | 2.9 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[191][192] | 4 Dec 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 41.0 | 41.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | – | – | – | Tie |
| La Vanguardia[193] | 25 Nov 2002 | ? | ? | 38.6 153 |
40.0 154 |
? 7 |
? 14 |
– | – | – | – | 1.4 |
| Gallup[194][195] | 4–25 Nov 2002 | 2,018 | 70.0 | 40.6 | 39.8 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | – | – | – | 0.8 |
| Opina/El País[196] | 23–24 Nov 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 40.0 | 40.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 1.8 | – | – | – | Tie |
| Opina/Cadena SER[197][198] | 20 Nov 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 42.0 | 40.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 2.0 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[199][200] | 5–8 Nov 2002 | 3,400 | ? | 41.9 | 38.4 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | – | – | – | 3.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[201][202] | 6 Nov 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 41.0 | 41.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | – | – | – | Tie |
| Opina/El País[203] | 28–29 Oct 2002 | ? | ? | 41.0 | 41.0 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | – | – | – | Tie |
| Gallup[204][205] | 1–24 Oct 2002 | 2,018 | 69.4 | 42.7 | 37.2 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | – | – | – | 5.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[206][207] | 23 Oct 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 41.0 | 39.5 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 1.5 |
| Ibecom/La Razón[95][208][209][210] | 17–21 Oct 2002 | ? | ? | 43.5 | 38.7 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | – | – | – | 4.8 |
| CIS[211][212] | 16–21 Oct 2002 | 2,489 | 74.6 | 41.5 | 37.3 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | – | – | 4.2 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[200][213] | 14 Oct 2002 | ? | ? | 41.8 | 37.9 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 3.9 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[214][215] | 9 Oct 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 42.0 | 38.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 3.5 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[216] | 7–9 Oct 2002 | 1,507 | ? | 42.4 165/170 |
38.7 145/150 |
4.8 ? |
3.3 ? |
1.2 ? |
– | – | – | 3.7 |
| CIS[217] | 9 Sep–9 Oct 2002 | 10,476 | 75.6 | 41.0 | 37.1 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | – | – | 3.9 |
| Intercampo/GETS[109] | 18 Sep–3 Oct 2002 | ? | ? | 41.6 | 36.6 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 5.0 |
| Opina/El País[218][219] | 29 Sep 2002 | ? | ? | 42.0 | 39.0 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 3.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[220][221] | 25 Sep 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 41.0 | 39.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 2.0 |
| Ipsos–Eco/ABC[222] | 6–13 Sep 2002 | 2,010 | ? | 40.7 | 37.6 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | – | – | 3.1 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[223][224] | 10 Sep 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 42.0 | 39.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 2.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[225][226][227] | 27 Aug 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 41.0 | 41.0 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | – | – | – | Tie |
| Gallup[228] | 1–23 Aug 2002 | 2,008 | 68.0 | 42.1 | 38.0 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | – | – | – | 4.1 |
| Gallup[229] | 2–29 Jul 2002 | 2,013 | 67.8 | 42.5 | 38.0 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | – | – | – | 4.5 |
| CIS[230][231] | 16–21 Jul 2002 | 2,482 | 74.0 | 41.0 | 36.3 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | – | – | 4.7 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[200][232] | 14 Jul 2002 | ? | ? | 43.3 | 36.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 7.1 |
| La Vanguardia[233][234] | 26–30 Jun 2002 | 2,494 | ? | 39.2 158 |
36.8 145 |
6.3 9 |
3.5 13 |
– | – | – | – | 2.4 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[235][236] | 27 Jun 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 41.0 | 40.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 1.0 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[237] | 24–26 Jun 2002 | 1,504 | ? | 41.9 | 38.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | – | – | – | 3.2 |
| Gallup[238] | 1–24 Jun 2002 | 2,016 | 68.3 | 42.7 | 36.8 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | – | – | – | 5.9 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[236][239] | 21 Jun 2002 | ? | ? | 41.0 | 39.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 1.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[236][239][240] | 5 Jun 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 41.0 | 39.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | – | – | – | 2.0 |
| La Vanguardia[233][241] | 20–26 May 2002 | 2,496 | ? | 40.0 162 |
36.9 142 |
6.6 8 |
4.1 15 |
– | – | – | – | 3.1 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[242][243] | 22 May 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 41.0 | 40.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 1.0 |
| Gallup[244] | 3–22 May 2002 | 2,010 | 70.2 | 42.3 | 37.6 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 4.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[245][246] | 8 May 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 41.0 | 39.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 2.0 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[200][247] | 3 May 2002 | ? | ? | 43.2 | 37.2 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 6.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[248][249] | 24 Apr 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 42.0 | 39.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 3.0 |
| Gallup[250] | 1–23 Apr 2002 | 2,017 | 68.2 | 41.8 | 37.6 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 4.2 |
| CIS[251][252] | 16–21 Apr 2002 | 2,498 | 73.9 | 42.4 | 34.4 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | – | – | 8.0 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[253] | 15–17 Apr 2002 | 1,510 | ? | 42.5 | 37.6 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | – | – | – | 4.9 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[254][255] | 10 Apr 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 42.0 | 38.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 3.5 |
| Gallup[256] | 4–27 Mar 2002 | 2,029 | 68.3 | 41.8 | 36.9 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 4.9 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[257][258] | 26 Mar 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 42.0 | 38.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 4.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[259][260] | 12 Mar 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 42.0 | 39.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 3.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[261][262] | 27 Feb 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 43.5 | 38.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 5.5 |
| Gallup[263] | 4–27 Feb 2002 | 2,030 | 70.3 | 43.1 | 37.1 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | – | – | – | 6.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[264][265] | 13 Feb 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 42.5 | 38.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 4.5 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[266] | 4–5 Feb 2002 | 1,506 | ? | 44.1 | 36.8 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 7.3 |
| CIS[267][268] | 27–31 Jan 2002 | 2,498 | 74.3 | 43.9 | 34.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | – | – | 9.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[269][270] | 30 Jan 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 43.5 | 38.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 5.5 |
| Gallup[271] | 4–29 Jan 2002 | 2,031 | 70.1 | 43.2 | 36.8 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.6 | – | – | – | 6.4 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[272][273] | 16 Jan 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 43.5 | 38.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 5.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[274][275][276] | 3 Jan 2002 | 1,000 | ? | 43.5 | 38.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 5.0 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[200][277] | 26–28 Dec 2001 | ? | ? | 44.7 | 35.5 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 9.2 |
| Gallup[278][279][280] | 3–28 Dec 2001 | 2,020 | 70.6 | 42.2 | 38.4 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 3.8 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[281][282] | 24 Dec 2001 | ? | ? | 42.0 | 37.0 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | – | – | 5.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[283][284][285] | 5 Dec 2001 | 1,000 | ? | 41.5 | 39.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 2.5 |
| Gallup[286][287][288] | 2–28 Nov 2001 | 2,021 | 69.8 | 44.2 | 36.8 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | – | – | – | 7.4 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[289][290] | 20 Nov 2001 | 1,000 | ? | 42.5 | 39.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 3.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[291][292] | 7 Nov 2001 | 1,000 | ? | 43.0 | 38.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 4.5 |
| Gallup[293][294][295] | 1–30 Oct 2001 | 2,016 | 70.1 | 43.9 | 37.0 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 6.9 |
| CIS[296][297][298][299] | 24–29 Oct 2001 | 2,499 | 74.1 | 43.5 180 |
34.0 125 |
5.5 8 |
4.5 16 |
1.4 7 |
1.4 ? |
– | – | 9.5 |
| La Vanguardia[300] | 28 Oct 2001 | ? | ? | 41.3 167 |
37.0 138 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | 4.3 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[301][302] | 24 Oct 2001 | 1,000 | ? | 44.0 | 38.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 5.5 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[303] | 22–23 Oct 2001 | 1,509 | ? | 44.5 | 37.9 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | – | – | – | 6.6 |
| Intercampo/GETS[109] | 19 Sep–4 Oct 2001 | ? | ? | 42.4 | 36.3 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | – | – | – | 6.1 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[302][239] | 2 Oct 2001 | ? | ? | 43.5 | 40.0 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 3.5 |
| Gallup[304][305][306] | 6–27 Sep 2001 | 2,027 | 70.3 | 42.3 | 37.2 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | – | – | – | 5.1 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[239][307][302] | 18 Sep 2001 | 1,000 | ? | 43.5 | 39.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 4.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[308][309] | 5 Sep 2001 | 1,000 | ? | 44.0 | 38.0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 6.0 |
| Gallup[310][311][312] | 2–30 Jul 2001 | 2,024 | 70.2 | 42.1 | 38.3 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 3.8 |
| CIS[298][313][314] | 13–18 Jul 2001 | 2,485 | 75.1 | 43.6 178 |
34.9 129 |
5.6 ? |
3.7 ? |
1.5 ? |
1.5 ? |
– | – | 8.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[315][316] | 30 Jun 2001 | 1,000 | ? | 43.5 | 40.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 3.5 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[317] | 25–28 Jun 2001 | 1,506 | ? | 44.0 | 37.1 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | – | – | – | 6.9 |
| Gallup[318][319][320] | 6–27 Jun 2001 | 2,008 | 69.5 | 43.6 | 36.8 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 6.8 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[200][321] | 24 Jun 2001 | ? | ? | 43.4 | 35.8 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | – | – | – | 7.6 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[322][323][324] | 13 Jun 2001 | 1,000 | ? | 44.0 | 38.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 6.0 |
| La Vanguardia[325] | 30 May 2001 | ? | ? | 43.5 180 |
35.1 128 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | 8.4 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[326][327] | 30 May 2001 | 1,000 | ? | 43.0 | 39.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 3.5 |
| Gallup[328][329][330] | 4–25 May 2001 | 2,031 | 69.8 | 45.0 | 34.3 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.4 | – | – | – | 10.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[331][332] | 14 May 2001 | 1,000 | ? | 44.0 | 38.0 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | – | – | – | 6.0 |
| CIS[298][333][334] | 20–30 Apr 2001 | 2,492 | 73.9 | 43.5 179 |
35.2 131 |
4.9 ? |
4.0 ? |
1.3 ? |
1.4 ? |
– | – | 8.3 |
| Gallup[335][336][337] | 4–25 Apr 2001 | 2,026 | 69.8 | 43.4 | 37.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 5.8 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[338][339] | 24 Apr 2001 | 1,000 | ? | 44.0 | 38.5 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 5.5 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[340] | 16–18 Apr 2001 | 1,514 | ? | 43.7 | 38.6 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 5.1 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[341][342] | 11 Apr 2001 | ? | ? | 43.0 | 40.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 3.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[343][344][345] | 4 Apr 2001 | ? | ? | 42.0 | 37.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 5.0 |
| Gallup[346][347][348] | 5–30 Mar 2001 | 2,026 | 72.3 | 43.4 | 35.6 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | – | – | – | 7.8 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[349][350] | 7 Mar 2001 | ? | ? | 43.0 | 38.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 4.5 |
| La Vanguardia[325] | 28 Feb 2001 | ? | ? | 42.7 177 |
35.9 132 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | 6.8 |
| Gallup[351][352][353] | 1–26 Feb 2001 | 2,036 | 70.3 | 42.4 | 37.5 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 4.9 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[354][355][356] | 21 Feb 2001 | 1,000 | ? | 43.0 | 40.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 3.0 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[200][357][358] | 18 Feb 2001 | 800 | ? | 43.5 | 35.9 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 7.6 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[359][360] | 7 Feb 2001 | ? | ? | 43.0 | 40.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 3.0 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[361][362] | 29–31 Jan 2001 | 1,519 | ? | 43.5 | 37.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 6.0 |
| Gallup[363][364][365] | 8–27 Jan 2001 | 2,028 | 71.6 | 41.9 | 37.0 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 4.9 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[360][366] | 24 Jan 2001 | ? | ? | 44.0 | 39.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | – | – | – | 5.0 |
| CIS[298][367][368] | 18–23 Jan 2001 | 2,486 | 73.9 | 43.5 179 |
36.2 132 |
5.1 ? |
3.9 ? |
1.4 ? |
1.2 ? |
– | – | 7.3 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[369] | 16 Jan 2001 | ? | ? | 42.0 | 39.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[360] | 10 Jan 2001 | ? | ? | 42.0 | 38.5 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 3.5 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[200][370] | 22–29 Dec 2000 | ? | ? | 44.6 | 36.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | – | – | – | 8.4 |
| Opitel/Tele 5[371] | 28 Dec 2000 | ? | ? | 44.5 | 38.0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 6.5 |
| Gallup[95] | 7–24 Dec 2000 | ? | ? | 44.4 | 36.9 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.9 | – | – | – | 7.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[360][372] | 20 Dec 2000 | ? | ? | 44.5 | 38.5 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | – | – | – | 6.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[360][373] | 5 Dec 2000 | ? | ? | 44.5 | 38.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | – | – | – | 6.0 |
| La Vanguardia[325] | 28 Nov 2000 | ? | ? | 42.6 176 |
36.0 133 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | 6.6 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[360][374] | 22 Nov 2000 | ? | ? | 45.0 | 38.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 7.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[374] | 8 Nov 2000 | ? | ? | 44.0 | 36.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8.0 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[375] | 30–31 Oct 2000 | 1,210 | ? | 44.0 | 36.7 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | – | – | – | 7.3 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[200][376] | 30 Oct 2000 | ? | ? | 46.2 | 34.2 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 12.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[360] | 25 Oct 2000 | ? | ? | 42.2 | 32.8 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 9.4 |
| CIS[128][377][378][379] | 17–22 Oct 2000 | 2,497 | ? | 43.7 173/179 |
36.2 131/134 |
5.5 7/8 |
3.8 14 |
1.5 7 |
1.3 ? |
– | – | 7.5 |
| Demoscopia/El País[95][380] | 9 Oct 2000 | ? | ? | 45.0 | 35.8 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | – | – | – | 9.2 |
| Intercampo/GETS[109] | 20 Sep–5 Oct 2000 | ? | ? | 42.9 | 33.7 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | – | – | – | 9.2 |
| Opitel/Tele 5[381] | 2 Oct 2000 | ? | ? | 44.8 | 34.9 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 1.0 | – | – | – | 9.9 |
| Gallup[382][383][384] | 1–27 Sep 2000 | 2,025 | 71.4 | 45.0 | 34.9 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | – | – | – | 10.1 |
| La Vanguardia[325] | 20 Jul 2000 | ? | ? | 47.1 188 |
31.5 119 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | 15.6 |
| CIS[298][379][385][386][387] | 13–18 Jul 2000 | 2,493 | 72.9 | 46.6 186 |
31.6 119/120 |
5.9 9 |
4.3 15/16 |
1.4 7 |
1.5 ? |
– | – | 15.0 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[200][388] | 16 Jul 2000 | ? | ? | 45.7 | 33.6 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | – | – | – | 12.1 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[389] | 26–30 Jun 2000 | 2,300 | ? | 46.5 | 30.5 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | – | – | – | 16.0 |
| La Vanguardia[325] | 7 Jun 2000 | ? | ? | 47.5 189 |
31.1 118 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | 16.4 |
| CIS[298][390][391] | 29 Apr–3 May 2000 | 2,491 | 72.0 | 45.3 185 |
32.7 125 |
5.9 ? |
4.0 ? |
1.2 ? |
1.5 ? |
– | – | 12.6 |
| 2000 general election | 12 Mar 2000 | — | 68.7 | 44.5 183 |
34.2 125 |
5.4 8 |
4.2 15 |
1.5 7 |
1.3 3 |
1.1 4 |
0.8 1 |
10.3 |
Voting preferences
[edit]The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
|
|
|
|
PNV | BNG |
|
|
|
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 general election | 14 Mar 2004 | — | 28.8 | 32.7 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.9 | — | 22.7 | 3.9 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[32] | 1–3 Mar 2004 | 2,071 | 30.9 | 27.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | – | – | – | 24.3 | 2.6 | 3.9 |
| Noxa/La Vanguardia[392] | 27 Feb–3 Mar 2004 | 2,200 | 30.9 | 31.2 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.3 |
| ASEP[393] | 16–21 Feb 2004 | 1,212 | 31.2 | 27.3 | 6.0 | 4.1* | * | ** | * | 2.6** | 16.5 | 8.0 | 3.9 |
| Gallup[67] | 2–20 Feb 2004 | 2,036 | 21.6 | 26.9 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | – | – | – | 24.1 | 16.5 | 5.3 |
| CIS[70] | 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 | 24,109 | 26.2 | 22.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 31.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 |
| Noxa/La Vanguardia[392] | 6–12 Feb 2004 | 1,800 | 32.6 | 31.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.7 |
| ASEP[393] | 19–24 Jan 2004 | 1,201 | 31.4 | 29.8 | 5.2 | 5.1* | * | ** | * | 2.9** | 14.4 | 7.3 | 1.6 |
| Gallup[83] | 5–22 Jan 2004 | 2,028 | 22.6 | 24.3 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | – | – | – | 26.8 | 16.2 | 1.7 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[84] | 19–21 Jan 2004 | 1,501 | 34.9 | 33.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | – | – | – | 12.8 | 6.5 | 1.9 |
| CIS[394][395] | 10–15 Jan 2004 | 2,489 | 27.8 | 21.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 32.2 | 6.9 | 6.5 |
| Noxa/La Vanguardia[392] | 7–9 Jan 2004 | 1,000 | 36.5 | 28.2 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8.3 |
| Gallup[94] | 1–19 Dec 2003 | 2,025 | 23.5 | 21.0 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 27.6 | 17.9 | 2.5 |
| ASEP[393] | 9–13 Dec 2003 | 1,207 | 29.1 | 30.4 | 4.0 | 5.5* | * | ** | * | 3.4** | 14.1 | 10.5 | 1.3 |
| Gallup[101] | 4–25 Nov 2003 | 2,032 | 23.6 | 23.5 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 1.4 | – | – | – | 24.5 | 18.5 | 0.1 |
| ASEP[393] | 10–15 Nov 2003 | 1,205 | 27.6 | 25.8 | 4.5 | 4.7* | * | ** | * | 3.0** | 19.7 | 9.5 | 1.8 |
| CIS[104] | 25–31 Oct 2003 | 2,488 | 27.5 | 24.4 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 24.5 | 9.3 | 3.1 |
| Gallup[107] | 3–22 Oct 2003 | 2,016 | 23.2 | 23.4 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 2.5 | – | – | – | 25.4 | 17.6 | 0.2 |
| ASEP[393] | 13–18 Oct 2003 | 1,205 | 27.7 | 28.1 | 4.6 | 5.2* | * | ** | * | 2.2** | 18.4 | 8.7 | 0.4 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[114] | 22–24 Sep 2003 | 1,502 | 35.9 | 29.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | – | – | – | 13.4 | 6.9 | 6.1 |
| Gallup[115] | 1–24 Sep 2003 | 2,027 | 24.6 | 22.6 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 27.2 | 14.8 | 2.0 |
| ASEP[393] | 15–20 Sep 2003 | 1,214 | 27.5 | 33.5 | 3.1 | 4.5* | * | ** | * | 1.5** | 17.8 | 8.3 | 6.0 |
| Gallup[125] | 1–18 Aug 2003 | 2,026 | 22.5 | 24.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 28.4 | 15.1 | 2.3 |
| Gallup[126] | 1–24 Jul 2003 | 2,032 | 23.4 | 26.0 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | – | – | – | 22.3 | 18.9 | 2.6 |
| CIS[129] | 2–8 Jul 2003 | 2,476 | 25.2 | 26.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 22.5 | 9.6 | 0.9 |
| ASEP[393] | 30 Jun–5 Jul 2003 | 1,212 | 27.6 | 30.4 | 5.3 | 4.3* | * | ** | * | 2.7** | 14.8 | 10.9 | 2.8 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[135] | 23–25 Jun 2003 | 1,502 | 31.0 | 30.3 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | – | – | – | 14.4 | 6.6 | 0.7 |
| Gallup[137] | 2–20 Jun 2003 | 2,024 | 26.6 | 24.3 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | – | – | – | 23.9 | 15.0 | 2.3 |
| ASEP[393] | 2–7 Jun 2003 | 1,215 | 27.7 | 30.0 | 4.8 | 5.6* | * | ** | * | 3.0** | 17.1 | 8.6 | 2.3 |
| Gallup[142] | 5–26 May 2003 | 2,026 | 19.2 | 27.5 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | – | – | – | 28.1 | 14.0 | 8.3 |
| ASEP[393] | 5–10 May 2003 | 1,210 | 25.4 | 30.9 | 5.1 | 4.3* | * | ** | * | 1.6** | 19.6 | 8.4 | 5.5 |
| CIS[144] | 24–30 Apr 2003 | 2,494 | 21.8 | 27.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 26.1 | 8.6 | 5.6 |
| Gallup[153] | 1–22 Apr 2003 | 2,020 | 16.4 | 28.7 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | – | – | – | 29.4 | 16.3 | 12.3 |
| ASEP[393] | 7–12 Apr 2003 | 1,205 | 18.6 | 34.5 | 4.2 | 4.7* | * | ** | * | 2.4** | 20.9 | 9.1 | 15.9 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[154] | 31 Mar–2 Apr 2003 | 1,503 | 20.4 | 33.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | – | – | – | 17.4 | 9.8 | 13.3 |
| Gallup[159] | 3–25 Mar 2003 | 2,016 | 18.4 | 30.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | – | – | – | 24.8 | 19.0 | 11.7 |
| ASEP[393] | 10–16 Mar 2003 | 1,210 | 22.7 | 32.5 | 3.3 | 5.1* | * | ** | * | 2.2** | 18.4 | 10.2 | 9.8 |
| Gallup[165] | 3–24 Feb 2003 | 2,028 | 18.2 | 26.9 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 25.2 | 20.0 | 8.7 |
| ASEP[393] | 10–15 Feb 2003 | 1,209 | 24.4 | 32.4 | 3.8 | 4.7* | * | ** | * | 2.3** | 18.2 | 9.7 | 8.0 |
| CIS[173] | 21–26 Jan 2003 | 2,480 | 23.2 | 24.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 25.3 | 11.7 | 1.2 |
| Gallup[176] | 7–23 Jan 2003 | 2,034 | 20.0 | 27.3 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 1.9 | – | – | – | 23.8 | 18.9 | 7.3 |
| ASEP[393] | 13–18 Jan 2003 | 1,215 | 23.5 | 28.2 | 4.2 | 5.0* | * | ** | * | 2.5** | 20.5 | 11.4 | 4.7 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[180] | 13–16 Jan 2003 | 1,501 | 27.8 | 27.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | – | – | – | 18.8 | 9.6 | 0.2 |
| Gallup[185] | 2–23 Dec 2002 | 2,011 | 17.6 | 25.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 1.1 | – | – | – | 29.6 | 18.3 | 7.7 |
| ASEP[393] | 2–8 Dec 2002 | 1,210 | 22.4 | 30.8 | 3.6 | 5.3* | * | ** | * | 3.5** | 17.3 | 12.1 | 8.4 |
| Gallup[195] | 4–25 Nov 2002 | 2,018 | 20.6 | 25.1 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | – | – | – | 25.6 | 19.2 | 4.5 |
| ASEP[393] | 4–9 Nov 2002 | 1,202 | 22.8 | 31.8 | 4.0 | 4.0* | * | ** | * | 2.5** | 18.6 | 10.9 | 9.0 |
| Gallup[205] | 1–24 Oct 2002 | 2,018 | 19.0 | 25.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | – | – | – | 27.5 | 19.4 | 6.4 |
| CIS[211] | 16–21 Oct 2002 | 2,489 | 24.5 | 25.2 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 25.3 | 11.5 | 0.7 |
| ASEP[393] | 7–13 Oct 2002 | 1,208 | 27.7 | 24.7 | 4.5 | 4.4* | * | ** | * | 2.0** | 19.6 | 11.5 | 3.0 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[216] | 7–9 Oct 2002 | 1,507 | 29.5 | 25.8 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | – | – | – | 21.1 | 8.6 | 3.7 |
| CIS[217] | 9 Sep–9 Oct 2002 | 10,476 | 23.1 | 26.3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 26.1 | 10.3 | 3.2 |
| ASEP[393] | 9–15 Sep 2002 | 1,212 | 25.4 | 27.6 | 4.8 | 5.8* | * | ** | * | 2.3** | 18.1 | 11.5 | 2.2 |
| Gallup[228] | 1–23 Aug 2002 | 2,008 | 20.8 | 25.3 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | – | – | – | 25.5 | 20.1 | 4.5 |
| Gallup[229] | 2–29 Jul 2002 | 2,013 | 22.4 | 26.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | – | – | – | 23.5 | 20.7 | 3.8 |
| CIS[230] | 16–21 Jul 2002 | 2,482 | 25.4 | 24.0 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 26.2 | 11.8 | 1.4 |
| ASEP[393] | 8–14 Jul 2002 | 1,212 | 26.0 | 29.8 | 4.8 | 5.7* | * | ** | * | 2.3** | 16.3 | 10.5 | 3.8 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[237] | 24–26 Jun 2002 | 1,504 | 25.8 | 28.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | – | – | – | 19.4 | 11.6 | 2.3 |
| Gallup[238] | 1–24 Jun 2002 | 2,016 | 23.2 | 21.6 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | – | – | – | 24.8 | 21.6 | 1.6 |
| ASEP[393] | 10–16 Jun 2002 | 1,222 | 26.7 | 24.2 | 4.9 | 5.0* | * | ** | * | 1.9** | 18.9 | 13.3 | 2.5 |
| Gallup[244] | 3–22 May 2002 | 2,010 | 25.1 | 25.4 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | – | – | – | 22.3 | 19.0 | 0.3 |
| ASEP[393] | 9–17 May 2002 | 1,209 | 29.6 | 25.4 | 3.6 | 4.7* | * | ** | * | 1.1** | 17.7 | 12.0 | 4.2 |
| Gallup[250] | 1–23 Apr 2002 | 2,017 | 22.0 | 25.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | – | – | – | 25.0 | 19.5 | 3.3 |
| CIS[251] | 16–21 Apr 2002 | 2,498 | 26.8 | 20.9 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 25.6 | 12.5 | 5.9 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[253] | 15–17 Apr 2002 | 1,510 | 27.5 | 24.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | – | – | – | 20.3 | 10.9 | 2.7 |
| ASEP[393] | 8–14 Apr 2002 | 1,216 | 28.7 | 25.9 | 3.7 | 4.4* | * | ** | * | 1.1** | 17.8 | 13.8 | 2.8 |
| Gallup[256] | 4–27 Mar 2002 | 2,029 | 21.0 | 22.2 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | – | – | – | 29.3 | 20.0 | 1.2 |
| ASEP[393] | 11–17 Mar 2002 | 1,220 | 28.9 | 26.2 | 4.0 | 4.1* | * | ** | * | 2.4** | 17.3 | 12.2 | 2.7 |
| Gallup[263] | 4–27 Feb 2002 | 2,030 | 23.3 | 23.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 | – | – | – | 25.3 | 18.6 | 0.2 |
| ASEP[393] | 11–17 Feb 2002 | 1,214 | 27.9 | 28.5 | 3.0 | 4.8* | * | ** | * | 2.0** | 17.0 | 13.3 | 0.6 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[266] | 4–5 Feb 2002 | 1,506 | 29.4 | 27.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 18.9 | 9.9 | 1.6 |
| CIS[267] | 27–31 Jan 2002 | 2,498 | 29.2 | 20.7 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 26.1 | 10.4 | 8.5 |
| Gallup[271] | 4–29 Jan 2002 | 2,031 | 26.5 | 21.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 1.3 | – | – | – | 25.6 | 18.0 | 5.2 |
| ASEP[393] | 14–19 Jan 2002 | 1,224 | 29.8 | 26.5 | 3.9 | 4.9* | * | ** | * | 1.9** | 17.3 | 11.0 | 3.3 |
| Gallup[278][279][280] | 3–28 Dec 2001 | 2,020 | 21.5 | 26.2 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | – | – | – | 26.5 | 16.6 | 4.7 |
| ASEP[393] | 10–15 Dec 2001 | 1,210 | 26.3 | 25.5 | 4.6 | 4.9* | * | ** | * | 1.7** | 17.9 | 12.4 | 0.8 |
| Gallup[286][287][288] | 2–28 Nov 2001 | 2,021 | 24.1 | 22.2 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | – | – | – | 28.7 | 17.0 | 1.9 |
| ASEP[393] | 12–17 Nov 2001 | 1,209 | 31.3 | 23.2 | 3.4 | 4.8* | * | ** | * | 1.8** | 18.8 | 11.5 | 8.1 |
| Gallup[293][294][295] | 1–30 Oct 2001 | 2,016 | 24.6 | 23.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 1.8 | – | – | – | 27.1 | 16.4 | 1.3 |
| CIS[296] | 24–29 Oct 2001 | 2,499 | 26.8 | 22.4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 24.0 | 11.2 | 4.4 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[303] | 22–23 Oct 2001 | 1,509 | 33.2 | 27.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | – | – | – | 17.5 | 8.4 | 5.9 |
| ASEP[393] | 15–20 Oct 2001 | 1,212 | 29.7 | 23.7 | 4.7 | 5.2* | * | ** | * | 2.0** | 19.6 | 11.7 | 6.0 |
| Gallup[304][305][306] | 6–27 Sep 2001 | 2,027 | 22.7 | 22.7 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 27.0 | 17.2 | Tie |
| ASEP[393] | 17–22 Sep 2001 | 1,210 | 28.3 | 22.7 | 4.8 | 4.9* | * | ** | * | 1.5** | 21.5 | 11.0 | 5.6 |
| Gallup[310][311][312] | 2–30 Jul 2001 | 2,024 | 23.7 | 22.0 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 21.7 | 18.0 | 1.7 |
| CIS[313] | 13–18 Jul 2001 | 2,485 | 27.8 | 24.1 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 23.5 | 11.2 | 3.7 |
| ASEP[393] | 9–14 Jul 2001 | 1,210 | 25.9 | 27.2 | 4.0 | 5.3* | * | ** | * | 2.9** | 16.2 | 12.8 | 1.3 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[317] | 25–28 Jun 2001 | 1,506 | 31.1 | 27.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | – | – | – | 16.7 | 10.2 | 4.1 |
| Gallup[318][319][320] | 6–27 Jun 2001 | 2,008 | 24.9 | 24.7 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 23.4 | 16.8 | 0.2 |
| ASEP[393] | 11–16 Jun 2001 | 1,213 | 26.4 | 26.6 | 4.0 | 4.8* | * | ** | * | 1.6** | 20.8 | 10.1 | 0.2 |
| Gallup[328][329][330] | 4–25 May 2001 | 2,031 | 23.8 | 22.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | – | – | – | 31.1 | 14.8 | 1.5 |
| ASEP[393] | 11–19 May 2001 | 1,214 | 28.7 | 22.4 | 5.6 | 5.6* | * | ** | * | 2.1** | 20.0 | 10.4 | 6.3 |
| CIS[333] | 20–30 Apr 2001 | 2,492 | 27.6 | 21.7 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 25.8 | 10.3 | 5.9 |
| Gallup[335][336][337] | 4–25 Apr 2001 | 2,026 | 24.2 | 22.0 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | – | – | – | 28.8 | 14.8 | 2.2 |
| ASEP[393] | 16–21 Apr 2001 | 1,209 | 29.6 | 26.3 | 4.2 | 4.5* | * | ** | * | 2.2** | 18.7 | 10.7 | 3.3 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[340] | 16–18 Apr 2001 | 1,514 | 31.5 | 26.7 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | – | – | – | 19.5 | 8.9 | 4.8 |
| Gallup[346][347][348] | 5–30 Mar 2001 | 2,026 | 24.7 | 22.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | – | – | – | 29.4 | 16.5 | 1.8 |
| ASEP[393] | 12–17 Mar 2001 | 1,205 | 27.9 | 26.4 | 5.7 | 5.0* | * | ** | * | 3.2** | 16.2 | 11.3 | 1.5 |
| Gallup[351][352][353] | 1–26 Feb 2001 | 2,036 | 22.9 | 21.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | – | – | – | 29.4 | 16.5 | 1.6 |
| ASEP[393] | 12–17 Feb 2001 | 1,212 | 30.2 | 25.7 | 3.8 | 4.9* | * | ** | * | 2.5** | 18.3 | 10.8 | 4.5 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[361] | 29–31 Jan 2001 | 1,519 | 29.6 | 26.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | – | – | – | 20.0 | 9.3 | 2.9 |
| Gallup[363][364][365] | 8–27 Jan 2001 | 2,028 | 22.7 | 25.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | – | – | – | 28.2 | 14.4 | 2.7 |
| CIS[367] | 18–23 Jan 2001 | 2,486 | 27.2 | 23.3 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 24.5 | 11.7 | 3.9 |
| ASEP[393] | 15–20 Jan 2001 | 1,211 | 26.1 | 28.0 | 4.2 | 6.8* | * | ** | * | 2.2** | 18.2 | 10.1 | 1.9 |
| ASEP[393] | 11–16 Dec 2000 | 1,210 | 28.0 | 26.9 | 5.0 | 5.0* | * | ** | * | 2.5** | 16.6 | 11.0 | 1.1 |
| ASEP[393] | 6–11 Nov 2000 | 1,210 | 30.1 | 25.8 | 4.5 | 4.5* | * | ** | * | 1.7** | 19.1 | 10.1 | 4.3 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[375] | 30–31 Oct 2000 | 1,210 | 34.6 | 26.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | – | – | – | 16.2 | 9.2 | 8.6 |
| CIS[377] | 17–22 Oct 2000 | 2,497 | 30.2 | 22.1 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 24.6 | 9.5 | 8.1 |
| ASEP[393] | 9–16 Oct 2000 | 1,212 | 29.7 | 26.4 | 4.2 | 4.5* | * | ** | * | 2.1** | 18.6 | 10.4 | 3.3 |
| Demoscopia/El País[380] | 9 Oct 2000 | ? | 27.9 | 21.7 | 4.2 | 2.7 | – | – | – | – | 23.7 | 13.7 | 6.2 |
| Gallup[382][383][384] | 1–27 Sep 2000 | 2,025 | 25.1 | 20.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – | – | 30.8 | 13.6 | 4.3 |
| ASEP[393] | 11–16 Sep 2000 | 1,214 | 31.9 | 22.6 | 5.4 | 5.2* | * | ** | * | 2.6** | 17.6 | 10.2 | 9.3 |
| CIS[385][386] | 13–18 Jul 2000 | 2,493 | 32.5 | 17.1 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 24.5 | 11.5 | 15.4 |
| ASEP[393] | 3–8 Jul 2000 | 1,218 | 37.4 | 23.4 | 4.8 | 5.7* | * | ** | * | 2.7** | 15.6 | 7.7 | 14.0 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[389] | 26–30 Jun 2000 | 2,300 | 39.0 | 19.1 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | – | – | – | 14.8 | 9.3 | 19.9 |
| ASEP[393] | 5–10 Jun 2000 | 1,211 | 36.9 | 21.8 | 5.1 | 5.7* | * | ** | * | 2.6** | 14.8 | 10.0 | 15.1 |
| ASEP[393] | 8–13 May 2000 | 1,221 | 37.0 | 23.2 | 5.2 | 5.8* | * | ** | * | 1.7** | 14.9 | 8.5 | 13.8 |
| CIS[390] | 29 Apr–3 May 2000 | 2,491 | 34.1 | 15.9 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 21.8 | 10.9 | 18.2 |
| ASEP[393] | 10–15 Apr 2000 | 1,210 | 36.2 | 22.2 | 4.3 | 6.9* | * | ** | * | 2.6** | 14.0 | 9.1 | 14.0 |
| ASEP[393] | 13–20 Mar 2000 | 1,208 | 36.3 | 21.5 | 5.1 | 7.0* | * | ** | * | 2.7** | 14.6 | 8.8 | 14.8 |
| 2000 general election | 12 Mar 2000 | — | 31.0 | 23.7 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | — | 30.0 | 7.3 |
| (*) Includes data for CiU, PNV, EA, PAR, UPN, PA, UV, EU and CC. (**) Includes data for ERC, BNG and CHA. | |||||||||||||
Victory preference
[edit]The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a general election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
|
|
|
|
PNV | Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opina/Cadena SER[11] | 7 Mar 2004 | ? | 35.7 | 41.2 | – | – | – | 8.0 | 15.1 | 5.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[13] | 6 Mar 2004 | ? | 35.9 | 40.0 | – | – | – | 8.1 | 16.0 | 4.1 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[20] | 5 Mar 2004 | ? | 35.6 | 40.1 | – | – | – | 7.9 | 16.3 | 4.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[26] | 4 Mar 2004 | ? | 36.6 | 39.1 | – | – | – | 8.4 | 15.8 | 2.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[30] | 3 Mar 2004 | ? | 37.2 | 39.0 | – | – | – | 8.0 | 15.8 | 1.8 |
| Noxa/La Vanguardia[392] | 27 Feb–3 Mar 2004 | 2,200 | 36.3 | 42.0 | – | – | – | – | – | 5.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[37] | 2 Mar 2004 | ? | 37.0 | 38.4 | – | – | – | 8.8 | 15.8 | 1.4 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[42] | 1 Mar 2004 | ? | 36.5 | 38.6 | – | – | – | 9.1 | 15.8 | 2.1 |
| Opina/El País[46] | 27 Feb–1 Mar 2004 | 4,000 | 33.7 | 38.3 | – | – | – | 4.1 | 24.1 | 4.6 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[48] | 29 Feb 2004 | ? | 37.2 | 37.6 | – | – | – | 10.3 | 14.9 | 0.4 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[53] | 28 Feb 2004 | ? | 37.6 | 36.9 | – | – | – | 10.3 | 15.3 | 0.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[55] | 27 Feb 2004 | ? | 38.1 | 36.4 | – | – | – | 9.7 | 15.8 | 1.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[60] | 26 Feb 2004 | 3,000 | 37.4 | 37.5 | – | – | – | 8.3 | 16.9 | 0.1 |
| CIS[70] | 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 | 24,109 | 32.1 | 34.0 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 10.0 | 17.5 | 1.9 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[396] | 11 Feb 2004 | 1,000 | 36.6 | 39.9 | – | – | – | 8.1 | 15.4 | 3.3 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[80] | 31 Jan 2004 | 1,000 | 37.5 | 38.5 | – | – | – | 5.6 | 18.4 | 1.0 |
| Opina/El País[82] | 25 Jan 2004 | 3,000 | 36.6 | 35.5 | – | – | – | 6.0 | 21.9 | 1.1 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[86] | 16 Jan 2004 | 1,000 | 39.4 | 38.2 | – | – | – | 8.2 | 14.2 | 1.2 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[91] | 2 Jan 2004 | ? | 37.1 | 39.2 | – | – | – | 5.3 | 18.4 | 2.1 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[103] | 19 Nov 2003 | 1,000 | 36.5 | 38.2 | – | – | – | 4.6 | 20.7 | 1.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[113] | 24 Sep 2003 | 1,000 | 36.8 | 36.6 | – | – | – | 6.5 | 20.1 | 0.2 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[117] | 10 Sep 2003 | 1,000 | 39.0 | 36.5 | – | – | – | 4.6 | 19.9 | 2.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[117] | 2 Sep 2003 | 1,000 | 38.9 | 36.2 | – | – | – | 6.1 | 18.8 | 2.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[124] | 27 Aug 2003 | 1,000 | 36.7 | 39.1 | – | – | – | 5.1 | 19.1 | 2.4 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[139] | 11 Jun 2003 | ? | 37.4 | 40.1 | – | – | – | 5.0 | 17.5 | 2.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[140] | 28 May 2003 | ? | 37.1 | 42.2 | – | – | – | 2.7 | 18.0 | 5.1 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[140] | 15 May 2003 | 1,000 | 35.6 | 39.8 | – | – | – | 4.0 | 20.6 | 4.2 |
| Noxa/La Vanguardia[147] | 22–24 Apr 2003 | 1,000 | 37.0 | 40.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[150] | 23 Apr 2003 | 1,000 | 29.3 | 41.6 | – | – | – | 3.6 | 25.5 | 12.3 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[150] | 2 Apr 2003 | ? | 27.1 | 49.4 | – | – | – | 3.6 | 19.9 | 22.3 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[161] | 21 Mar 2003 | 1,000 | 25.9 | 44.1 | – | – | – | 4.5 | 25.5 | 18.2 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[163] | 8 Mar 2003 | 1,000 | 26.2 | 46.7 | – | – | – | 3.5 | 23.6 | 20.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[169] | 19 Feb 2003 | 1,000 | 27.8 | 44.1 | – | – | – | 3.5 | 24.6 | 16.3 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[170] | 6 Feb 2003 | ? | 28.2 | 43.6 | – | – | – | 3.6 | 24.6 | 15.4 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[178] | 22 Jan 2003 | 1,000 | 28.6 | 41.8 | – | – | – | 3.3 | 26.3 | 13.2 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[182] | 8 Jan 2003 | 1,000 | 31.9 | 40.1 | – | – | – | 2.3 | 25.7 | 8.2 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[187] | 17 Dec 2002 | 1,000 | 29.8 | 39.3 | – | – | – | 3.8 | 27.1 | 9.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[192] | 4 Dec 2002 | 1,000 | 30.7 | 41.4 | – | – | – | 3.5 | 24.4 | 8.2 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[198] | 20 Nov 2002 | 1,000 | 33.0 | 38.7 | – | – | – | 2.8 | 25.5 | 5.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[202] | 6 Nov 2002 | 1,000 | 31.4 | 42.3 | – | – | – | 1.4 | 24.9 | 10.9 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[202] | 23 Oct 2002 | 1,000 | 30.6 | 37.6 | – | – | – | 3.1 | 27.7 | 7.0 |
Victory likelihood
[edit]The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a general election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
|
|
Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opina/Cadena SER[11] | 7 Mar 2004 | ? | 70.3 | 12.6 | 0.6 | 16.5 | 57.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[13] | 6 Mar 2004 | ? | 70.1 | 12.8 | 0.7 | 16.3 | 57.3 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[20] | 5 Mar 2004 | ? | 68.1 | 12.8 | 0.8 | 18.2 | 55.3 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[26] | 4 Mar 2004 | ? | 68.2 | 12.9 | 0.9 | 17.9 | 55.3 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[30] | 3 Mar 2004 | ? | 67.8 | 12.2 | 0.9 | 19.2 | 55.6 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[37] | 2 Mar 2004 | ? | 68.5 | 11.8 | 0.8 | 18.9 | 56.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[42] | 1 Mar 2004 | ? | 67.8 | 12.1 | 0.9 | 19.2 | 55.7 |
| Opina/El País[46] | 27 Feb–1 Mar 2004 | 4,000 | 66.2 | 11.4 | 0.3 | 22.2 | 54.8 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[48] | 29 Feb 2004 | ? | 67.7 | 13.2 | 1.1 | 17.9 | 54.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[53] | 28 Feb 2004 | ? | 67.2 | 13.9 | 1.2 | 17.6 | 53.3 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[55] | 27 Feb 2004 | ? | 67.0 | 13.4 | 1.2 | 18.3 | 53.6 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[60] | 26 Feb 2004 | 3,000 | 66.9 | 13.3 | 0.9 | 18.9 | 53.6 |
| Infortécnica[62] | 26 Feb 2004 | 4,656 | 64.5 | 13.7 | 1.0 | 20.7 | 50.8 |
| CIS[70] | 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 | 24,109 | 63.4 | 11.0 | 1.5 | 24.2 | 52.4 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[396] | 11 Feb 2004 | 1,000 | 70.8 | 12.3 | 0.6 | 16.3 | 58.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[80] | 31 Jan 2004 | 1,000 | 70.0 | 13.2 | 0.4 | 16.4 | 56.8 |
| Opina/El País[82] | 25 Jan 2004 | 3,000 | 67.6 | 11.3 | 0.1 | 21.0 | 56.3 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[86] | 16 Jan 2004 | 1,000 | 71.9 | 11.8 | 0.6 | 15.7 | 60.1 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[91] | 2 Jan 2004 | ? | 70.5 | 9.9 | 0.3 | 19.3 | 60.6 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[103] | 19 Nov 2003 | 1,000 | 73.3 | 9.7 | 0.3 | 16.7 | 63.6 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[113] | 24 Sep 2003 | 1,000 | 67.6 | 14.5 | 0.3 | 17.6 | 53.1 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[117] | 10 Sep 2003 | 1,000 | 69.5 | 11.7 | 0.5 | 18.3 | 57.8 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[117] | 2 Sep 2003 | 1,000 | 68.2 | 16.2 | 0.3 | 15.3 | 52.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[124] | 27 Aug 2003 | 1,000 | 64.1 | 19.4 | 0.5 | 16.0 | 44.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[139] | 11 Jun 2003 | ? | 56.2 | 22.9 | 0.6 | 20.3 | 33.3 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[140] | 28 May 2003 | ? | 53.8 | 26.2 | 0.6 | 19.4 | 27.6 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[140] | 15 May 2003 | 1,000 | 45.2 | 31.8 | 0.5 | 22.5 | 13.4 |
| Noxa/La Vanguardia[147] | 22–24 Apr 2003 | 1,000 | 39.0 | 46.0 | 2.0 | 13.0 | 7.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[150] | 23 Apr 2003 | 1,000 | 33.3 | 42.6 | 0.4 | 23.7 | 9.3 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[150] | 2 Apr 2003 | ? | 24.6 | 54.6 | 0.3 | 20.5 | 30.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[161] | 21 Mar 2003 | 1,000 | 26.6 | 47.1 | 0.6 | 25.7 | 20.5 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[163] | 8 Mar 2003 | 1,000 | 37.3 | 39.1 | 0.2 | 23.4 | 1.8 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[169] | 19 Feb 2003 | 1,000 | 34.5 | 38.4 | 0.6 | 26.5 | 3.9 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[170] | 6 Feb 2003 | ? | 41.8 | 30.5 | 0.8 | 26.9 | 11.3 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[178] | 22 Jan 2003 | 1,000 | 51.0 | 24.2 | 0.6 | 24.2 | 26.8 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[182] | 8 Jan 2003 | 1,000 | 48.8 | 25.7 | 0.1 | 25.4 | 23.1 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[187] | 17 Dec 2002 | 1,000 | 45.4 | 29.1 | 0.6 | 24.9 | 16.3 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[192] | 4 Dec 2002 | 1,000 | 50.4 | 24.7 | 0.3 | 24.6 | 25.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[198] | 20 Nov 2002 | 1,000 | 58.6 | 20.6 | 0.3 | 20.5 | 38.0 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[202] | 6 Nov 2002 | 1,000 | 48.6 | 25.9 | 0.2 | 25.3 | 22.7 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[202] | 23 Oct 2002 | 1,000 | 58.5 | 17.7 | 0.3 | 23.5 | 40.8 |
Sub-national polling
[edit]Catalonia
[edit]| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 general election | 14 Mar 2004 | — | 76.0 | 39.5 21 |
20.8 10 |
15.6 6 |
15.9 8 |
5.8 2 |
[b] | 18.7 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[32] | 1–3 Mar 2004 | 571 | ? | 37.0 17/19 |
20.6 10/11 |
20.6 10/11 |
13.2 6/7 |
6.0 2 |
[b] | 16.4 |
| Noxa/La Vanguardia[397] | 27 Feb–3 Mar 2004 | 700 | ? | 38.0 19/20 |
20.3 10 |
20.8 10 |
11.4 5/6 |
7.4 1/2 |
[b] | 17.2 |
| Noxa/La Vanguardia[398] | 6–12 Feb 2004 | 600 | ? | 37.2 18 |
18.2 9 |
22.3 11/12 |
12.7 6/7 |
7.3 2 |
[b] | 14.9 |
| ERC[399] | 8–15 Jan 2004 | 2,000 | ? | ? 16/17 |
? 12/14 |
? 9/10 |
? 5/7 |
? 2/3 |
– | ? |
| Vox Pública/PSC[400][401] | 16–18 Dec 2002 | 805 | ? | 42.0– 43.0 |
20.5– 21.5 |
20.0– 21.0 |
6.5– 7.5 |
4.5– 5.5 |
[b] | 21.5 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[216] | 7–9 Oct 2002 | ? | ? | 39.5 | 22.5 | 22.0 | – | – | – | 17.0 |
| CIS[402][403] | 9 Sep–9 Oct 2002 | 922 | 76.2 | 36.4 | 25.1 | 20.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | – | 11.3 |
| Opina/La Vanguardia[404] | 6 Nov 2000 | 800 | ? | 36.0 | 26.5 | 21.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | – | 9.5 |
| Vox Pública/El Periódico[405] | 26–30 Jun 2000 | 801 | ? | 30.0 | 26.5 | 28.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| 2000 general election | 12 Mar 2000 | — | 64.0 | 34.1 17 |
28.8 15 |
22.8 12 |
5.6 1 |
3.5 1 |
2.2 0 |
5.3 |
Leadership polling
[edit]Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f g h i "Elecciones Generales Marzo 2004. Evolución del voto en las encuestas preelectorales de Sigma Dos" (PDF). Sigma Dos (in Spanish). 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on 16 December 2004.
- ^ a b c "La mayoría de los sondeos da un empate técnico entre PP y PSOE". El Mundo (in Spanish). 14 March 2004.
- ^ a b c "TVE da la victoria al PSOE mientras Tele 5 y Antena 3 otorgan la mayoría simple al PP". El País (in Spanish). 14 March 2004.
- ^ "Los sondeos a pie de urna dan un empate entre PSOE y PP". El Periódico de Extremadura (in Spanish). 14 March 2004.
- ^ "Elecciones Generales y de la Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía. Sondeo de Ipsos-EcoConsulting para RTVE - Domingo 14 de Marzo". RTVE (in Spanish). 14 March 2004. Archived from the original on 26 March 2004.
- ^ "Guerra, terrorismo y elecciones: incidencia electoral de los atentados islamistas en Madrid". ResearchGate (in Spanish). 10 March 2005.
- ^ "El PP vence pero no logra la mayoría absoluta". Informativos Telecinco (in Spanish). 14 March 2004. Archived from the original on 27 March 2004.
- ^ "Dos de los cuatro sondeos avanzaban la victoria de los socialistas". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 14 March 2004.
- ^ Ekaizer, Ernesto (9 March 2004). "Si Hitler se levantara de su tumba". El País (in Spanish).
- ^ "El PSOE recorta a 2,5 puntos la distancia del PP, que se aleja de la mayoría absoluta". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 8 March 2004.
- ^ a b c "Pulsómetro 08/03/2004". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 8 March 2004. Archived from the original on 4 November 2011.
- ^ "La distancia entre PP y PSOE se reduce a 3,5 puntos a una semana para las elecciones". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 7 March 2004.
- ^ a b c "Pulsómetro 07/03/2004". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 7 March 2004. Archived from the original on 13 March 2004.
- ^ "La distancia entre el PP y el PSOE se reduce a 3,5 puntos". El País (in Spanish). 8 March 2004.
- ^ "El PP tendría entre 168 y 173 escaños a seis días de las elecciones generales". El Mundo (in Spanish). 8 March 2004.
- ^ "Encuesta marzo 2004" (PDF). El Mundo (in Spanish). 7 March 2004.
- ^ "Voto". Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 6 March 2004. Archived from the original on 26 November 2004. Retrieved 21 December 2020.
- ^ "Ficha técnica". Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 6 March 2004. Archived from the original on 26 November 2004. Retrieved 21 December 2020.
- ^ "El PSOE recorta un punto al PP a una semana de las elecciones". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 6 March 2004.
- ^ a b c "Pulsómetro 06/03/2004". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 6 March 2004. Archived from the original on 9 April 2004.
- ^ "El PSOE recorta un punto al PP". El País (in Spanish). 7 March 2004.
- ^ a b "Voto, terrorismo y rendición de cuentas: las elecciones de 2004 en España". ResearchGate (in Spanish). January 2009.
- ^ "Los sondeos dejan en suspenso la mayoría absoluta de Rajoy aunque confirman la clara victoria del PP". Libertad Digital (in Spanish). 7 March 2004. Archived from the original on 6 April 2005.
- ^ "Cinco encuestas coinciden en que el PP no tiene asegurada la mayoría absoluta". El Periódico de Aragón (in Spanish). 7 March 2004.
- ^ "El PP consolida cinco puntos de ventaja sobre el PSOE". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 5 March 2004.
- ^ a b c "Pulsómetro 05/03/2004". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 5 March 2004. Archived from the original on 17 March 2004.
- ^ "El PP llega a mitad de campaña con 5 puntos de ventaja sobre el PSOE". El País (in Spanish). 6 March 2004.
- ^ "La campaña electoral de marzo de 2004". Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 3 March 2004. Archived from the original on 26 May 2007. Retrieved 21 December 2020.
- ^ "El PP aumenta su ventaja a cinco puntos pero no logra la mayoría absoluta". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 4 March 2004.
- ^ a b c "Pulsómetro 04/03/2004". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 4 March 2004. Archived from the original on 18 April 2004.
- ^ "El PP se acerca a la mayoría absoluta". El País (in Spanish). 5 March 2004.
- ^ a b c "Los conservadores pueden lograr entre 169 y 173 diputados, y el PSOE, de 135 a 140". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 7 March 2004. Archived from the original on 22 March 2016. Retrieved 9 November 2015.
- ^ a b "Del 11-M al 14-M: Los mecanismos del cambio electoral" (PDF). Universitat Pompeu Fabra (in Spanish). 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on 17 February 2012.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "La marca ZP fue decisiva el 14-M". La Gauche Divine (in Spanish). 27 September 2005.
- ^ "La mayoría absoluta se le escapa al PP". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 7 March 2004.
- ^ "El PP recupera ventaja y se distancia del PSOE en 4 puntos y medio". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 3 March 2004.
- ^ a b c "Pulsómetro 03/03/2004". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 3 March 2004. Archived from the original on 18 April 2004.
- ^ "El PP recupera medio punto". El País (in Spanish). 4 March 2004.
- ^ "El PP obtendría entre 172 y 177 escaños si la votación fuera hoy". El Mundo (in Spanish). 4 March 2004.
- ^ "Encuesta marzo 2004" (PDF). El Mundo (in Spanish). 4 March 2004.
- ^ "El PP mantiene 4 puntos de ventaja sobre el PSOE a 12 días del 14-M". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 2 March 2004.
- ^ a b c "Pulsómetro 02/03/2004". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 2 March 2004. Archived from the original on 18 May 2006.
- ^ "El PP mantiene su ventaja de 4 puntos". El País (in Spanish). 3 March 2004.
- ^ "El PP consolida su ventaja frente al PSOE sin llegar a la mayoría absoluta". El País (in Spanish). 7 March 2004.
- ^ "Estimación de voto. Elecciones Generales 2004". El País (in Spanish). 6 March 2004.
- ^ a b c "Encuesta España. Estimación electoral. Marzo 2004" (PDF). Instituto Opina (in Spanish). 7 March 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on 7 May 2005. Retrieved 21 December 2020.
- ^ "Se recorta a cuatro puntos la distancia entre PP y PSOE". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 1 March 2004.
- ^ a b c "Pulsómetro 01/03/2004". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 1 March 2004. Archived from the original on 21 July 2006.
- ^ "El PSOE recorta distancias". El País (in Spanish). 2 March 2004.
- ^ a b c "Elecciones Generales 2004". La Página Definitiva (in Spanish). 8 March 2004.
- ^ "Consideraciones sobre los efectos electorales de los atentados terroristas del 11-M" (PDF). Aposta Digital (in Spanish). November 2004.
- ^ "Pulsómetro: el PSOE recorta medio punto respecto al PP". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 29 February 2004.
- ^ a b c "Pulsómetro 29/02/2004". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 29 February 2004. Archived from the original on 21 July 2006.
- ^ "Pulsómetro: el PP mantiene 5 puntos sobre el PSOE". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 28 February 2004.
- ^ a b c "Pulsómetro 28/02/2004". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 28 February 2004. Archived from the original on 18 May 2006.
- ^ "Rajoy no repetiría la mayoría absoluta alcanzada por Aznar". El País (in Spanish). 29 February 2004.
- ^ "El PP sacaría menos de 3 puntos al PSOE y perdería la mayoría absoluta". Foros Expansión (in Spanish). 1 March 2004. Archived from the original on 30 April 2016. Retrieved 9 November 2015.
- ^ "Las encuestas dan mayoría absoluta muy ajustada al PP". El Mundo (in Spanish). 4 March 2004.
- ^ "El PP, que aventaja en cinco puntos al PSOE, perdería la mayoría absoluta". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 27 February 2004.
- ^ a b c "Pulsómetro 27/02/2004". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 27 February 2004. Archived from the original on 21 July 2006.
- ^ "El PP está cerca de la mayoría absoluta". El País (in Spanish). 28 February 2004.
- ^ a b "Prospectiva Electoral. Elecciones Generales 2004" (PDF). Infortécnica (in Spanish). 26 February 2004.
- ^ "Rajoy se quedaría a cinco escaños de la mayoría absoluta, según un sondeo de La Razón". Libertad Digital (in Spanish). 27 February 2004.
- ^ a b "Encuestas y sondeos". Libertad Digital (in Spanish). 8 March 2004.
- ^ "Elecciones generales. Estimación de resultado electoral" (PDF). El Correo (in Spanish). 29 February 2004.
- ^ "El PP se sitúa al filo de la mayoría absoluta, 174-177 escaños, en el inicio de la campaña". ABC (in Spanish). 29 February 2004.
- ^ a b "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Febrero 2004". Gallup España (in Spanish). 9 March 2004. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
- ^ "Expectativas de voto elecciones generales del 14-M. Datos globales (conj. de España)". El Correo (in Spanish). 22 February 2004.
- ^ "La mayoría absoluta del PP peligra y CC se afianza como llave de gobierno". eldia.es (in Spanish). 22 February 2004.
- ^ a b c d "Preelectoral elecciones generales y autonómicas de Andalucía, 2004 (Estudio nº 2555. Enero-Febrero 2004)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 4 March 2004.
- ^ "La mayoría absoluta pende de un hilo". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 5 March 2004.
- ^ "Rajoy roza la mayoría absoluta". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 15 February 2004.
- ^ "El PSOE recorta distancias con el PP y se sitúa a tres puntos, según el Pulsómetro". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 16 February 2004.
- ^ "Pulsómetro 16/02/2004". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 16 February 2004. Archived from the original on 21 February 2004.
- ^ "Un sondeo de 'Sigma Dos' da al PP ocho puntos sobre el PSOE". El Mundo (in Spanish). 14 February 2004.
- ^ "Rajoy es el más eficaz y Zapatero el más cercano, según un sondeo". eldia.es (in Spanish). 14 February 2004.
- ^ "Los sondeos no se ponen de acuerdo sobre los efectos del "escándalo Carod" en el PSOE". Libertad Digital (in Spanish). 8 February 2004.
- ^ "El PSOE sigue vivo tras el golpe de Carod". El Mundo (in Spanish). 8 February 2004.
- ^ "El "caso Carod" no pasa factura al PSOE, que sigue a cuatro puntos del PP". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 2 February 2004.
- ^ a b c "Pulsómetro 31/01/2004". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 2 February 2004. Archived from the original on 10 March 2005.
- ^ "El PP saca al PSOE 5,5 puntos de ventaja". El País (in Spanish). 25 January 2004.
- ^ a b c "Informe Encuesta Electoral. Enero 2004" (PDF). Instituto Opina (in Spanish). 25 January 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on 7 May 2005. Retrieved 21 December 2020.
- ^ a b "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Enero 2004". Gallup España (in Spanish). 18 February 2004. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
- ^ a b "Rajoy, a las puertas de la mayoría absoluta con el 43% de los votos". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 25 January 2004. Archived from the original on 8 March 2016. Retrieved 9 November 2015.
- ^ "El PP aventaja en cuatro puntos al PSOE en intención de voto". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 19 January 2004.
- ^ a b c "Pulsómetro 16/01/2004". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 19 January 2004. Archived from the original on 24 September 2005.
- ^ "El PP saca cuatro puntos al PSOE en voto decidido, según el Pulsómetro". El País (in Spanish). 20 January 2004.
- ^ "Rajoy roza la mayoría absoluta". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 11 January 2004.
- ^ "El PP mantiene 10,7 puntos sobre el PSOE en vísperas de la disolución de las Cortes". El Mundo (in Spanish). 4 January 2004.
- ^ "El PSOE reduce a dos puntos la ventaja del PP en intención de voto". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 7 January 2004.
- ^ a b c "Pulsómetro 02/01/2004". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 7 January 2004. Archived from the original on 9 January 2004.
- ^ "Primer 'Pulsómetro' de 2004 sobre las elecciones generales". El País (in Spanish). 7 January 2004.
- ^ "El PP se distancia más del PSOE en intención de voto, y se sitúa a 8,9 puntos". Gallup España (in Spanish). 16 January 2004. Archived from the original on 24 February 2004.
- ^ a b "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Diciembre 2003". Gallup España (in Spanish). 16 January 2004. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "Estimaciones de voto para elecciones al Congreso de los Diputados. En porcentaje sobre voto estimado (VI Legislatura)". Argos GVA (in Spanish). 3 March 2008. Archived from the original on 3 March 2008.
- ^ "El PP mejora el resultado de marzo de 2000". El Mundo (in Spanish). 7 December 2003.
- ^ "El PSOE sigue a tres puntos del PP". El País (in Spanish). 7 December 2003.
- ^ "Encuesta Constitución. Diciembre 2003" (PDF). Instituto Opina (in Spanish). 7 December 2003. Archived from the original (PDF) on 7 May 2005. Retrieved 21 December 2020.
- ^ "El PP de Rajoy repetirá la mayoría absoluta que obtuvo Aznar en el 2000". Diario de León (in Spanish). 14 December 2003.
- ^ "El PP se distancia del PSOE 6,8 puntos en intención de voto". Gallup España (in Spanish). 8 January 2004. Archived from the original on 24 February 2004.
- ^ a b "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Noviembre 2003". Gallup España (in Spanish). 8 January 2004. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
- ^ "El PSOE sigue a tres puntos del PP tras las elecciones catalanas". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 24 November 2003.
- ^ a b c "Pulsómetro 24/11/2003". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 24 November 2003. Archived from the original on 8 February 2004.
- ^ a b "Barómetro de octubre 2003 (Estudio nº 2541. Octubre 2003)". CIS (in Spanish). 24 November 2003.
- ^ "El CIS sitúa al PP en mayoría absoluta dos meses después de designar sucesor a Rajoy". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 25 November 2003.
- ^ "El PP obtiene el respaldo del 42,4% del electorado y el PSOE el 36,8%, 5,6 puntos de diferencia". Gallup España (in Spanish). 4 December 2003. Archived from the original on 24 February 2004.
- ^ a b "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Octubre 2003". Gallup España (in Spanish). 4 December 2003. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
- ^ "La revista que preside Alfonso Guerra da 9,5 puntos de ventaja al PP, dos más que el CIS". El Mundo (in Spanish). 27 November 2003.
- ^ a b c d "Tendencias electorales 2006. Empatados" (PDF). Fundación Sistema (in Spanish). 2006. Archived from the original (PDF) on 22 February 2014.
- ^ "PP still leads in Spain". Angus Reid. 28 November 2003. Archived from the original on 17 January 2013.
- ^ "El cambio de líder eleva la ventaja del PP a 8,5 puntos". El Mundo (in Spanish). 28 September 2003.
- ^ "Se mantiene la distancia electoral entre PP y PSOE". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 29 September 2003.
- ^ a b c "Pulsómetro 24/09/2003". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 29 September 2003. Archived from the original on 11 October 2003.
- ^ a b "El PP saca siete puntos al PSOE y roza una nueva mayoría absoluta". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 3 October 2003. Archived from the original on 23 August 2017. Retrieved 9 November 2015.
- ^ a b "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Septiembre 2003". Gallup España (in Spanish). 17 October 2003. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
- ^ "Rajoy mantiene los 3 puntos de ventaja que tenía el PP sobre el PSOE antes de su designación como candidato". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 15 September 2003.
- ^ a b c d e f "Pulsómetro 15/09/2003". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 15 September 2003. Archived from the original on 19 September 2003.
- ^ "El 70% cree que el PP ganará las elecciones generales". El País (in Spanish). 16 September 2003.
- ^ "El PP capitaliza la designación de Rajoy". El País (in Spanish). 7 September 2003.
- ^ "El Gobierno logra dar un vuelco a la situación que atravesaba en marzo". El País (in Spanish). 7 September 2003.
- ^ "Encuesta Septiembre 2003. España" (PDF). Instituto Opina (in Spanish). 7 September 2003. Archived from the original (PDF) on 7 May 2005. Retrieved 21 December 2020.
- ^ "El PP mantiene tres puntos de ventaja sobre el PSOE". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 4 September 2003.
- ^ "El PP empieza el curso político con tres puntos de ventaja". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 1 September 2003.
- ^ a b c "Pulsómetro 27/08/2003". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 1 September 2003. Archived from the original on 5 September 2003.
- ^ a b "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Agosto 2003". Gallup España (in Spanish). 22 September 2003. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
- ^ a b "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Julio 2003". Gallup España (in Spanish). 14 August 2003. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
- ^ "El PP mantiene una cómoda ventaja de 6,9 puntos". El Mundo (in Spanish). 20 July 2003.
- ^ a b "Barómetros CIS. Indicadores electorales. Estimación de voto". CIS (in Spanish). 28 November 2000.
- ^ a b "Barómetro de julio 2003 (Estudio nº 2531. Julio 2003)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 28 August 2003.
- ^ "El PSOE paga la factura de Tamayo". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 29 August 2003.
- ^ "El PSOE se sitúa a un punto del PP". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 7 July 2003.
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