Talk:2022–2023 mpox outbreak

Is the outbreak over or just the PHEIC?

Inspired by similar discussions related to the COVID-19 pandemic, do sources actually agree that the mpox outbreak, specifically, is over, or at least refer to it in past tense, or is it considered to be continuing at present? The PHEIC ended, yes, but so did the one for COVID-19, yet the COVID-19 pandemic article uses present tense and contains information up to the present. Normally I'd consider the PHEIC ending to be enough in the absence of anything indicating otherwise, but this article does contain case and death counts extending into March 2024. Therefore, we should either more clearly describe the outbreak as over and remove information about after that time as out of scope (perhaps belonging in the general mpox article), or a rename may be warranted, though I'd suggest "Mpox outbreak" over "2022-2024 mpox outbreak". Crossroads ^-talk- 05:26, 29 March 2024 (UTC)

As per the previous Talk section, maybe “Global mpox outbreak”. There have been other outbreaks.

Something like the ECDC report from January 20244 implies the outbreak is ongoing, yes. Bondegezou (talk) 06:39, 29 March 2024 (UTC)

i agree with "global mpox outbreak", Bondegezou. But the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) weekly communication you cited does not imply the outbreak is ongoing, it just reports figures. It makes absolutely no epidemiological analysis at all. Please look at the epi curve on ECDC/WHO Regional Office for Europe Mpox, Joint Epidemiological overview which does this, and there you will see visually: the outbreak in Europe was over at the end of 2022 with extremely few cases until March 2023. (My reply to Crossroads) Global, WHO data with similar epicurve here. 2023 showed minor outbreaks in the Western Pacific Region (who knows whats happening in Russia...?) and Africa, but no global outbreak like 2022.

The CDC in MMWR May 16, 2024 takes a more differentiated view calling the past outbreak "2022 global mpox outbreak by clade II", which in light of the ongoing increase in clade I and likely future global spread at some point, is smart and makes perfect sense to me.--Wuerzele (talk) 08:49, 17 May 2024 (UTC)

I dont understand why @Gtoffoletto closed the curious discussion below, namely Crossroads s suggestion to rename the page Global mpox on 22 April 2024. He closed it after just 6 days and just 3 editors input. The questionn will pop up again.- I would go along with @Graham Beards and @WhatamIdoing that the global outbreak by clade II is over and there is merely ongoing low level transmission, see the epicurves I cited. I d call the page 2022 global mpox outbreak. 2023 outbreaks werent global, but multi-country. --Wuerzele (talk) 09:22, 17 May 2024 (UTC)

It wasn't I who closed the discussion below. I was just the last to comment. {{u|Gtoffoletto}}  ^talk 18:43, 17 May 2024 (UTC)

The move request was open for 7 days and 4.5 hours, which I believe is a pretty typical timeframe for move requests. Improving the article to provide a little background information about the difference between "outbreak" and "this virus you'd never heard of, that's been circulating forever, still exists" might help. WhatamIdoing (talk) 21:01, 17 May 2024 (UTC)

Wuerzele, thanks for weighing in. The situation here and at COVID-19 pandemic seemed to be similar - a disease that was formerly not present in a population now is, and it got there via a big notable outbreak, but now the numbers are much lower and more stable; but there is (was?) a lack of high quality sources specifically saying the outbreak is over. A case count of zero would make the call easy, but alas that is not the case. At the Covid pandemic article, there was some resistance to the idea of putting the article in past tense, mainly due to the lack of sources specifically saying so (although no one seems to have looked in a while). The idea that a lack of sources affirmatively saying it is ongoing would mean it should be put in past tense was controversial. This is why I was under the impression that for consistency something like the Mpox outbreak was also considered ongoing. All in all I think these articles could definitely use more editors with relevant expertise. Crossroads ^-talk- 01:57, 19 May 2024 (UTC)

Requested move 22 April 2024

The following is a closed discussion of a requested move. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made in a new section on the talk page. Editors desiring to contest the closing decision should consider a move review after discussing it on the closer's talk page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

The result of the move request was: no consensus. (closed by non-admin page mover) – Hilst [talk] 23:15, 29 April 2024 (UTC)

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2022–2023 mpox outbreak → Global mpox outbreak – Please see the previous two brief headings on this page. The global outbreak did not actually end in 2023 (see also [1]), and it is more properly described as the global outbreak to distinguish it from outbreaks in previously endemic regions. There is no need for naming specific years in the title; other disease outbreak/epidemic articles do not do this. Crossroads ^-talk- 18:48, 22 April 2024 (UTC)

Note: WikiProject Disaster management, WikiProject Viruses, WikiProject LGBT studies, WikiProject Medicine/Dermatology task force, and WikiProject Medicine have been notified of this discussion. RodRabelo7 (talk) 05:31, 28 April 2024 (UTC)

• Support – there is no clear evidence/consensus amongst scientists that the outbreak ended in 2023, and there has not been any other global Mpox outbreaks. DaniloDaysOfOurLives (talk) 06:00, 28 April 2024 (UTC)
• Oppose – Other disease articles do have years for example 2009 swine flu pandemic. The outbreak is over. The one or two remaining cases are isolated events. The link says:

As of January 10, 2024, the data on this page are no longer being updated. Low-level transmission of the mpox clade II subtype is occurring in the U.S. There has not been a marked change in weekly or monthly national case counts during the last 6 months.

The current title is accurate. Graham Beards (talk) 07:06, 28 April 2024 (UTC)

@Graham Beards, is that source saying that the outbreak is over in the US, rather than globally? WhatamIdoing (talk) 17:24, 28 April 2024 (UTC)

The World Health Organization lifted the Public health emergency of international concern notice on mpox in May 2023.[2] The 2022–2023 global outbreak of mpox was caused by a strain known as clade IIb. [3] Yes, the source refers to the US but the outbreak is over in Europe.[4] Sporadic cases have occured since the outbreak and no doubt will continue to occur. But unless we can find a source that clearly says the outbreak caused by this clade is ongoing (in gay men), I would be not agree to the page move. Graham Beards (talk) 17:59, 28 April 2024 (UTC)

I wonder whether some people/sources misunderstand statements that low-level transmission is still occurring as meaning the outbreak isn't over. They might think that "when the outbreak is over, nobody has it", when the typical definitions are closer to "when it's over, only the usual number of people have it" (like people getting flu on the off season).

PMID 37717593 ("What happened to the mpox pandemic?") says things like "Multiple countries have had recent pockets of infection, but the numbers of weekly cases have usually been in single digits" and "the small number of new cases recently reported in Barcelona do not represent the start of any new large-scale outbreak". PMID 36708724 ("The end of the mpox pandemic?") from early last year suggests that the global outbreak was ending. PMID 38401555 said "WHO declared the mpox pandemic over on May 11, 2023". PMID 38543691 calls it the "2022-2023 Mpox multi-country outbreak". PMID 38456029 (from this year) says "the 2022-23 Mpox outbreak" and "the 2022-23 global outbreak". This all suggests to me that the outbreak is not (technically) continuing.

(Also, we probably need an article on network immunity.) WhatamIdoing (talk) 18:58, 28 April 2024 (UTC)

Very wise and well sourced. Thank you. Graham Beards (talk) 19:37, 28 April 2024 (UTC)

• Oppose per Graham Beards. {{u|Gtoffoletto}}  ^talk 19:01, 28 April 2024 (UTC)

The discussion above is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

Lede needs rewriting

The lede is an accumulation of timeline events and does not adequately, concisely summary the global outbreak, doesnt even mention clade specificity; it needs rewriting- that s why I actually came to this talk page, though I replied to the question of whether the outbreak is over above.. Wuerzele (talk) 09:21, 17 May 2024 (UTC)

Just a question on something

We name these based on what they were called at the time, right? The 2003 Outbreak is still Monkeypox, the one that just broke out is Mpox, that makes sense.

How did people decide which title to use for this one given the name change happened midway through? WHO changed the name November 27-December 1st 2022 (Can't confirm which article dates are screwy), CDC didn't change until January 2023, other national organizations in Canada and the UK took longer, PHAC switched to Mpox in February 2023 and NIH in March 2023. The virus itself was never renamed and the organization in charge of that has refused to budge. (There isn't a single group legally in control of disease names like there is with pathogen names, though WHO commands a lot of power). Mayo Clinic and OSHA didn't change until after the outbreak ended in May.

The outbreak broke out in May and was declared one officially in July. So for the first 5/7 months(depending on where you start counting) or basically the first half, everyone called it Monkeypox. It wasn't until January 2023 (7/9 months out of 10/12) that the two biggest disease orgs changed, but several others took longer and some didn't change until after the outbreak ended. So for both the start of the outbreak and more than half of the outbreak the official name was Monkeypox, and in some places it still was. (Again, disease names aren't top down in the same way pathogen names are, and the pathogen guys stuck with Monkeypox).

That's not even mentioning the fact that... 1. Most non-English language sources still use some variant of Monkeypox OR took way longer to switch, so during this outbreak basically all for Monkeypox. 2. While officially it was Monkeypox for at least half and arguably longer, in terms of just common what did a layperson call it...it was Monkeypox all the way through, even in the final months most news articles either used both or still said Monkeypox and people talking about it said Monkeypox for the most part, MPox didn't overtake it in Google trends until a couple months ago well after this ended.

So if we're going by what people called it at the time, both officially and commonly(just like the 2003 article), this one should still be Monkeypox, with the 2024 one being Mpox as by this point all organizations have adopted MPox at least partially and it's finally seeing common usage on par or ahead of Monkeypox. 2604:3D09:1F80:CA00:5C6F:6104:EB5F:388D (talk) 20:06, 15 August 2024 (UTC)

(Even we didn't rename the articles until after this outbreak ended as it took time to catch on. I get wanting to help a new name catch on, but it's kinda revisionist to act like Mpox was the nomenclature when this outbreak happened. It really wasn't. Now there's a new worse outbreak occuring at a time when the nomenclature WP:Common really IS Mpox, that name is everywhere now and doesn't need help, can we fix this one to call it what we did in 2022?) 2604:3D09:1F80:CA00:5C6F:6104:EB5F:388D (talk) 20:08, 15 August 2024 (UTC)

TL:DR These are titled with how we called the disease at the time. 2003 outbreak is Monkeypox, 2024 outbreak is Mpox.

The disease was called Monkeypox universally by both official sources and common usage for the first half (including when it started). First two quarters basically 100%. By the third quarter it was mixed (WHO changed, CDC hesitated and then changed, near the end the Canadians did) and it was only in the last 1/4 of this outbreak that the majority of official disease groups changed their usage(and even then, not all of them, Mayo and OSHA took longer). So Monkeypox was officially when it started, completely official for the first half, mostly official for the 3rd quarter, and still official in a few places for the 4th. So it passes that side of things.

And Common Usage at the time was heavily Monkeypox. Google Trends shows it only being overtaken in May 2024, and they were on parr until this month(August 2024) when the recent outbreak finally firmly put Mpox ahead. Even Wikipedia didn’t get the consensus to rename the disease pages until after this was over. Kind of prescriptive. And the need to help encourage the new name to be used (which we really shouldn’t be doing anyway) is gone now, both because Mpox is finally firmly ahead and because there’s a new Mpox outbreak that’s bigger and is everywhere.

So if we’re going by what it was called when it actually happened and what people called it when it actually happened, the 2022 Outbreak should still be titled Monkeypox just like the 2003 outbreak. The 2024 one is Mpox because that’s the consensus fully now, disease page is fine since that’s about the official name, I’m talking about this one. That is not the same widely used when it happened 2604:3D09:1F80:CA00:7161:A155:F548:F46 (talk) 19:36, 16 August 2024 (UTC)

Wikipedia first renamed the Mpox page Feb 28 - March 1 and there was initially a ton of back and forth that wasn’t fully settled until months later.

I’m not denying that by May or April 2023 the majority of official sources had switched, but I am pointing out that’s the tail end of the outbreak. May 2022 through November 2022, more than half the outbreak, 100% Monkeypox. and then December-February was a transition with conflicting usage. And in common usage it was still Monkeypox (that’s a lot harder for me to cite, I can really only point to google trends, but anecdotally in both IRL family circles and like Reddit comments still mostly Monkeypox in mid 2023).

We aren’t renaming old events to fit new names. The diseases themselves sure, but not outbreaks. Cities themselves, but not old battles. Swine Flu in 2009 hurting the pork industry combined with MERS racism in 2011 is what prompted WHO to change their naming system for new diseases in 2013. They said they weren’t changing old disease names for the most part, but they ditched that plan with Monkeypox. Swine Flu WAS renamed, they just called it H1N1 officially now, but the 2009 page is still Swine Flu Pandemic because that’s what the world used at the time. The 2003 Monkeypox outbreak is still titled that because that’s what was used then. This was called Monkeypox by common people the whole time and by official sources for more than half including when it started 2604:3D09:1F80:CA00:7C13:6213:82BC:6EF0 (talk) 20:09, 16 August 2024 (UTC)

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