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2019 Prince Edward Island electoral reform referendum

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Electoral System Referendum
April 23, 2019 (2019-04-23)
Should Prince Edward Island change its voting system to a mixed member proportional voting system?[1]
Websitereferendumpei.ca
Results
Choice
 Votes %
Yes 39,516 48.26%
No 42,372 51.74%
Valid votes 81,888 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 0 0.00%
Total votes 81,888 100.00%
Registered voters/turnout 107,109 76.45%
Results by district

A referendum on electoral reform was held on April 23, 2019, in the Canadian province of Prince Edward Island – simultaneously with the 2019 provincial election – to determine if the province should adopt a mixed-member proportional representation voting system (MMP). A narrow majority voted to keep the existing first-past-the-post system. However, the referendum was not binding, as neither the yes or no side received majority support in 60% or more of the province's 27 electoral districts.

Background

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A referendum on the issue was held October 27 to November 7, 2016. That referendum asked which of five voting systems residents would prefer to use in electing members to the Legislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island.[2][3][4] The referendum, after four instant run-off rounds, indicated mixed member proportional representation was the preferred choice with over 52% support on the final ballot.[5]

Premier Wade MacLauchlan said after the vote that he is doubtful the result of the referendum "can be said to constitute a clear expression of the will of Prince Edward Islanders" due to the low voter turnout relative to provincial general elections.[6] As the result of political pressure, MacLauchlan's government introduced a motion in the Legislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island to hold another referendum on electoral reform at the next provincial general election, stating that the low turnout for the referendum did not provide a mandate to implement the change and the need for a more specific referendum question with two choices.[7][8] A motion by Green Party leader Peter Bevan-Baker to implement mixed-member proportional representation in line with the referendum results was defeated on November 22, 2016, by a vote of 6–20.[9]

On June 12, 2018, legislation governing the new referendum passed in the legislature.[10][11]

Referendum question and threshold

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The Electoral System Referendum Act passed by the Legislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island on June 13, 2018, set the referendum question as:[12]

Should Prince Edward Island change its voting system to a mixed member proportional voting system?

  • No
  • Yes

(According to the Act, "No" was required to appear on the referendum ballot above "Yes")

In order for the referendum to be legally binding, either side was required to receive a majority of voters in at least 60% (17) of the province's 27 provincial electoral districts.[13][14] Before the results were announced, Gerard Mitchell, the referendum commissioner, confirmed the 60% threshold saying if the vote was close "whoever is governing will have to make a decision".[15][16]

Campaign

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The campaign period for the referendum began on February 1, 2019, and applications opened for Yes and No campaigns to apply for public funding.[17]

During the campaign, Premier (and Liberal leader) Wade MacLauchlan did not take a public position on the vote. The leaders of all other parties, however, were on record as supporting a move to MMP.[18] The leaders were also asked about their referendum positions in the CBC Leaders' Debate.[19]

The form of MMP proposed would have had 18 district seats and nine island-wide top-up seats filled in compensatory fashion to address disproportionality of the district winners.[20]

Open list PR was to be used to fill the top-up seats. The voter's marked preference on the Party Vote part of the ballot "would be used to determine each party's province-wide popular vote, and the number of votes each candidate on the party list receives will determine their ranking."[21] The party share of popular vote would determine the party's share of total seats, and if the party did not win that many district seats, the party would receive top-up seats, if possible, with the party's top-up seats being allocated to the most-popular of the party's top-up candidates.[21] A sample MMP ballot was issued during the campaign.[3]

Opinion polls

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Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample size No Yes Unsure Lead
14–17 Apr 2019 Mainstreet Research 636 48.8% 51.2% — 2.4%
12–15 Apr 2019 Narrative Research/The Guardian 538 42% 42% 16% Tie
11–16 Apr 2019 MQO Research 400 35% 47% 18% 12%
7 Nov 2016 2016 plebiscite 37,040 42.8% 52.4% — 9.6%

Results

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The referendum was defeated, with 15 districts voting to adopt MMP and 12 voting to maintain the current system.[22] The popular vote was a narrow majority in favour of keeping the current first-past-the-post system. Neither side, however, received a majority in 60% of districts (17/27) and therefore the referendum was not binding on the government.[13][14] A recount in District 20 widened the FPTP victory somewhat, with the final popular vote approximately 52% for FPTP and 48% for MMP.[23]

Option District vote Popular vote
Districts won % Votes %
No
Current FPTP system retained		 13 48.15% 42,372 51.74
Yes
Province adopts MMP as electoral system		 14 51.85% 39,516 48.26
Source: Elections PEI

Analysis

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2019 PEI referendum - synopsis of riding results, grouped by federal riding[a 1]
Riding (and number) Choice Majority Winner
Yes No Total Yes No Yes No
Cardigan
Belfast-Murray River 4 1,338 1,585 2,923 247 Green tickY
Georgetown-Pownal 2 1,448 1,589 3,037 141 Green tickY
Mermaid-Stratford 5 1,736 1,271 3,007 465 Green tickY
Montague-Kilmuir 3 1,339 1,586 2,925 247 Green tickY
Morell-Donagh 7 1,375 1,626 3,001 251 Green tickY
Souris-Elmira 1 1,203 1,763 2,966 560 Green tickY
Stanhope-Marshfield 8 1,698 1,564 3,262 134 Green tickY
Stratford-Keppoch 6 1,665 1,300 2,965 365 Green tickY
Malpeque
Borden-Kinkora 19 1,511 1,665 3,176 154 Green tickY
Brackley-Hunter River 15 1,568 1,544 3,112 24 Green tickY
Cornwall-Meadowbank 16 1,769 1,619 3,388 150 Green tickY
Kensington-Malpeque[a 2] 20 1,548 1,655 3,203 107 Green tickY
New Haven-Rocky Point 17 1,919 1,539 3,458 380 Green tickY
Rustico-Emerald 18 1,696 1,619 3,315 77 Green tickY
Charlottetown
Charlottetown-Belvedere 11 1,599 1,571 3,170 28 Green tickY
Charlottetown-Brighton 13 1,893 1,316 3,209 577 Green tickY
Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park 9 1,365 997 2,362 368 Green tickY
Charlottetown-Victoria Park 12 2,041 1,078 3,119 963 Green tickY
Charlottetown-West Royalty 14 1,583 1,415 2,998 168 Green tickY
Charlottetown-Winsloe 10 1,787 1,572 3,359 215 Green tickY
Egmont
Alberton-Bloomfield 26 595 2,271 2,866 1,676 Green tickY
Evangeline-Miscouche 24 1,079 1,329 2,408 250 Green tickY
O'Leary-Inverness 25 667 1,992 2,659 1,325 Green tickY
Summerside-South Drive 22 1,465 1,476 2,941 11 Green tickY
Summerside-Wilmot 21 1,624 1,570 3,194 54 Green tickY
Tignish-Palmer Road 27 590 2,199 2,789 1,609 Green tickY
Tyne Valley-Sherbrooke 23 1,415 1,661 3,076 246 Green tickY
Totals
Votes 39,516 42,372 81,888 3,968 6,824 14 13
Percent 48.26 51.74 100.00 4.84 8.33
  1. ^ 2019 Referendum Results. Elections Prince Edward Island. 2019. {{cite book}}: |website= ignored (help)
  2. ^ initial count showed a Yes majority
  = results revised on recount

Aftermath

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Following the preliminary results, Brenda Oslawsky of Vote Yes P.E.I. said that the result showed there was "significant support" for MMP, and that the group was calling on the government to convene a citizens assembly to study electoral reform.[22] Responding to the results, Progressive Conservative leader Dennis King said Islanders have an interest in furthering the conversation on how they govern themselves and elect members of the legislature. He said he would like to see continued discussion of electoral reform in the Legislature.[24] Peter Bevan-Baker, leader of the Green Party, called the results "agonizingly close" and said it is inevitable that proportional representation is coming but that PEI is not going to be the province leading the charge.[13]

John Barrett of No What to Vote said the result was closer than expected but they were pleased with the result overall.[25][26] Calling the result decisive, he said "Fifty-one per cent is a win and we'll take it".[13] Barrett also said electoral reform is not off the table going forward, noting that his group was not opposed to electoral reform, only the specific model which had been proposed (MMP).[26]

References

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  1. ^ "2019 Provincial General Election" (PDF). Chief Electoral Office of PEI. April 23, 2019.
  2. ^ Roberts, Rob (July 7, 2016). "PEI sets voting-reform plebiscite for fall". The Globe and Mail. Toronto. Retrieved October 2, 2016.
  3. ^ McKenna, Peter (September 21, 2016). "Electoral reform in P.E.I. redux". Charlottetown, PEI: The Guardian Charlottetown. Archived from the original on October 3, 2016. Retrieved October 2, 2016.
  4. ^ Campbell, Kerry (April 16, 2016). "P.E.I. electoral reform: 4 unanswered questions about the plebiscite". CBC. Archived from the original on October 5, 2016. Retrieved October 2, 2016.
  5. ^ Bradley, Susan (November 8, 2016). "P.E.I. plebiscite results favour mixed member proportional representation". CBC News. Retrieved November 8, 2016.
  6. ^ Sinclair, Jesara (November 8, 2016). "Premier calls plebiscite results 'debatable,' cites low turnout". CBC News. Retrieved November 11, 2016.
  7. ^ "Motion No. 80, Democratic renewal: a clear question and a binding vote". www.assembly.pe.ca. Legislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island. Archived from the original on March 28, 2019. Retrieved June 13, 2018.
  8. ^ Wright, Teresa (November 22, 2016). "Motion urging P.E.I. government to honour electoral reform vote defeated". The Guardian. Charlottetown. Archived from the original on November 24, 2016. Retrieved November 25, 2016.
  9. ^ "Motion No. 54 , Plebiscite on electoral reform". www.assembly.pe.ca. Legislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island.
  10. ^ "Much-amended P.E.I. referendum legislation passes". CBC News. June 12, 2018. Retrieved June 13, 2018.
  11. ^ Ross, Ryan (June 13, 2018). "Liberals vote to support P.E.I. referendum bill". The Guardian. Retrieved June 14, 2018.
  12. ^ The Canadian Press (June 12, 2018). "PEI poised for battle over electoral reform". Toronto Star. Retrieved June 14, 2018.
  13. ^ a b c d The Canadian Press (April 24, 2019). "Slim majority vote 'no' to electoral reform in P.E.I. referendum". CTV News. Retrieved April 25, 2019.
  14. ^ a b Section 4 of Electoral System Referendum Act, RSPEI 1988, c E-2.2 available at [1] and on CanLII at [2].
  15. ^ Tutton, Michael (April 23, 2019). "Prince Edward Island voters say 'no' to electoral reform referendum by slim majority". Global News. Retrieved April 25, 2019.
  16. ^ Tutton, Michael (April 24, 2019). "P.E.I. Voters Narrowly Reject Switch To Proportional Representation In Referendum". HuffPost. Archived from the original on April 25, 2019. Retrieved April 25, 2019.
  17. ^ Neatby, Stu (January 31, 2019). "Election in the air: P.E.I. electoral reform referendum campaigning period begins Feb. 1". The Guardian. Charlottetown. Retrieved February 1, 2019.
  18. ^ Campbell, Kerry (April 4, 2019). "Leaders say they will honour the vote in P.E.I's referendum on electoral reform". CBC News. Retrieved April 25, 2019.
  19. ^ CBC News (April 16, 2019). "Watch the CBC P.E.I. Leaders Debate April 16". CBC News. Retrieved April 25, 2019.
  20. ^ "Electoral System Referendum Act".
  21. ^ a b Schedule 2, Election System Referendum Act. p. 23.
  22. ^ a b Smith, Katie (April 23, 2019). "P.E.I. voters split on electoral reform". The Guardian. Charlottetown, PEI. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  23. ^ CBC News (May 17, 2019). "Elections P.E.I. discovers error in referendum vote count". CBC News. Retrieved May 24, 2019.
  24. ^ Yarr, Kevin (April 24, 2019). "P.E.I.'s new minority government will proceed 'issue-by-issue,' says premier designate". CBC News. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  25. ^ Smith, Katie (April 24, 2019). "'No' side pleased with status quo after P.E.I. electoral reform referendum". The Guardian. Charlottetown, PEI. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  26. ^ a b CBC News (April 24, 2019). "What's next for the referendum question on P.E.I.?". CBC News. Retrieved April 25, 2019.
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