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2024 Irish general election

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2024 Irish general election
Republic of Ireland
← 2020 29 November 2024
174 seats in Dáil Éireann
88 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
Fianna Fáil Micheál Martin 35
Sinn Féin Mary Lou McDonald 33
Fine Gael Simon Harris 32
Green Roderic O'Gorman 12
Labour Ivana Bacik 6
Social Democrats Holly Cairns 6
PBP–Solidarity Collective leadership 5
Independent Ireland Michael Collins 3
Aontú Peadar Tóibín 1
Right to Change Joan Collins 1
Independent — 20
Ceann Comhairle Seán Ó Fearghaíl 1
Vacant — 5
Map of the Dáil constituencies to be used at the election.
Incumbent Taoiseach
Simon Harris
Fine Gael
Dáil constituencies to be used at the 2024 general election

The 2024 Irish general election is due to be held on Friday, 29 November 2024 to elect the 34th Dáil, the lower house of the Oireachtas, Ireland's parliament. It will elect Teachtaí Dála (TDs) across Dáil constituencies of between 3 and 5 seats.

Under the Electoral (Amendment) Act 2023, there will be 174 TDs at the next election, an increase of 14 seats from the current Dáil, and an increase in the number of constituencies from 39 to 43. This will be the largest Dáil in the history of the state.

The 33rd Dáil must be dissolved by the president at the request of the Taoiseach no later than 19 February 2025. The incumbent Taoiseach is Simon Harris, leader of Fine Gael, who is leading a coalition government of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party. He took office as Taoiseach on 9 April 2024, following the resignation of Leo Varadkar. Harris has confirmed that he will seek a dissolution on 8 November, in the hope of an election on 29 November 2024.

Constituency revision

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In August 2023, the Electoral Commission proposed a Dáil size of 174 TDs to be elected across 43 Dáil constituencies – an increase of 14 TDs and four constituencies.[1] This was the first review of constituencies carried out by the Commission established under the Electoral Reform Act 2022, where previously they had been carried out by a Constituency Commission. This would be the largest size of the Dáil in the history of the State, surpassing the previous number of 166 TDs from 1981 to 2016.[2] The Electoral (Amendment) Act 2023 implemented the recommendations of the commission.[3]

The preliminary results of the 2022 census showed a population of over 5.1 million, which required a minimum Dáil size of 171 TDs.[4] The Commission was required by law to recommend a size of the Dáil of between 171 and 181 TDs.[5] This range reflects the growth in the population of the state, and the requirement of Article 16.6.2° of the Constitution of Ireland that there be one TD elected for no less than every 20,000 of the population and no more than every 30,000.[6]

Electoral system

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Main article: Single transferable vote

Under the system of proportional representation by means of the single transferable vote (PR-STV), each voter may mark all candidates in order of preference. The quota is determined at the first count in each constituency by dividing the number of valid votes by one more than the number of seats (therefore, the quota is 25% in a three-seat constituency, 20% in a four-seat constituency, and 16.67% in a five-seat constituency).

Any candidate reaching or exceeding the quota is elected. If fewer candidates reach the quota than the number of seats to be filled, the last-placed candidate is removed from the count and the next available preferences on those ballot papers are redistributed until a candidate is elected. If such a candidate now has more votes than the quota, their surplus is distributed to remaining candidates in order of ranking on the ballot papers. This is repeated until sufficient candidates have passed the quota to fill the available seats,[7] or where a seat remains to be filled in a constituency and no candidate is capable of achieving a quota as there is nobody left to eliminate for a distribution then the highest place candidate without a quota is deemed elected.

The outgoing Ceann Comhairle (currently Seán Ó Fearghaíl) is due to be returned automatically, unless he announces to the Dáil that he does not wish to be a member of the incoming Dáil.[8]

Date of election

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The Taoiseach may advise the president to dissolve the Dáil at any time during the period of the Dáil, which can be refused by the president only where the Taoiseach has ceased to retain the support of a majority in the Dáil. Electoral law provides that the "same Dáil shall not continue for a longer period than five years from the date of its first meeting".[9] When the Dáil is dissolved, the Clerk of the Dáil must issue a writ of election to the returning officer for each constituency.[10] The election must take place on a date set by the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage 18 to 25 days (disregarding any excluded day) after the writs have been issued.[11][12][13]

The 33rd Dáil first met on 20 February 2020, and must be dissolved no later than 19 February 2025. This means that, per a calculation in The Irish Times, the latest date the election can be held is 22 March 2025.[14][15]

For most of 2024, many pundits believed that an autumn election was likely; coalition leaders repeatedly said they would like the government to complete its full term but were open to an early election if the circumstances provided for it.[16] Polling conducted in October 2024 indicated a majority of the public supported an early election to be held in November of the same year.[17]

Following the announcement on 1 October 2024 of the 2025 budget, speculation began in earnest that an election would be called for November or December.[18][19] In late October, Taoiseach Simon Harris said that he expected the election to be held before the end of 2024.[20] On 6 November, Harris confirmed that he would seek a dissolution of the Dáil on 8 November, in the hope of setting a polling date of 29 November 2024.[21]

Vacancies

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Four TDs were elected to the European Parliament and took office on 16 July, vacating their seats in the Dáil; a writ to fill the vacancies must be moved within six months of that date, unless there has been a dissolution of the Dáil.[22] One TD, Joe Carey, has resigned from the Dáil.[23]

TD Constituency Party Date Reason
Barry Cowen Laois–Offaly Fianna Fáil 16 July 2024 Elected to the European Parliament
Kathleen Funchion Carlow–Kilkenny Sinn Féin 16 July 2024 Elected to the European Parliament
Michael McNamara Clare Independent 16 July 2024 Elected to the European Parliament
Aodhán Ó Ríordáin Dublin Bay North Labour 16 July 2024 Elected to the European Parliament
Joe Carey Clare Fine Gael 27 August 2024[23] Resignation due to illness

Retiring incumbents

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The following members of the 33rd Dáil are not seeking re-election:

Departing TD Constituency Party First elected Date confirmed
Joe McHugh Donegal Fine Gael 2007 4 May 2022[24][25]
Brendan Griffin Kerry Fine Gael 2011 31 January 2023[26]
Denis Naughten Roscommon–Galway Independent 1997 13 February 2023[27]
John Paul Phelan Carlow–Kilkenny Fine Gael 2011 18 April 2023[28]
Michael Creed Cork North-West Fine Gael 1989 24 April 2023[29]
David Stanton Cork East Fine Gael 1997 23 May 2023[30]
Bríd Smith Dublin South-Central PBP–Solidarity 2016 10 July 2023[31][32]
Richard Bruton Dublin Bay North Fine Gael 1982 5 September 2023[33]
Charles Flanagan Laois–Offaly Fine Gael 1987 25 September 2023[34]
Brendan Howlin Wexford Labour 1987 6 October 2023[35]
Seán Sherlock Cork East Labour 2007 9 October 2023[36]
Marc MacSharry Sligo–Leitrim Independent[a] 2016 18 October 2023[37]
Fergus O'Dowd Louth Fine Gael 2002 27 November 2023[38]
Imelda Munster Louth Sinn Féin 2016 1 December 2023[39]
Seán Haughey Dublin Bay North Fianna Fáil 1987 6 February 2024[40]
Paul Kehoe Wexford Fine Gael 2002 12 February 2024[41]
Ciarán Cannon Galway East Fine Gael 2011 19 March 2024[42]
Josepha Madigan Dublin Rathdown Fine Gael 2016 22 March 2024[43]
Eamon Ryan Dublin Bay South Green 2002 18 June 2024[44]
Catherine Murphy Kildare North Social Democrats 2005 2 July 2024[45]
Róisín Shortall Dublin North-West Social Democrats 1992 2 July 2024[45]
Simon Coveney Cork South-Central Fine Gael 1998 10 July 2024[46]
Leo Varadkar Dublin West Fine Gael 2007 16 July 2024[47]
Éamon Ó Cuív Galway West Fianna Fáil 1992 24 July 2024[48]
Michael Ring Mayo Fine Gael 1994 30 July 2024[49]
Peter Fitzpatrick Louth Independent 2011 30 August 2024[50]
Damien English Meath West Fine Gael 2002 18 September 2024[51]
Heather Humphreys Cavan–Monaghan Fine Gael 2011 19 October 2024[52]
Jackie Cahill Tipperary Fianna Fáil 2016 21 October 2024[53]
  1. ^ MacSharry was elected as a Fianna Fáil TD but left the party in 2022.

Candidates

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Main article: Candidates in the 2024 Irish general election

Opinion polls

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Main article: Opinion polling for the 2024 Irish general election

On 1 November, Coimisiún na Meán announced the lifting of the reporting moratorium that had been in place since 1997, and which had prevented election coverage from 14:00 on the day prior to the election until the close of polls. However, the agency also advised broadcasters not to report on opinion polls or exit polls while voting is underway.[54]

Various organisations conduct regular opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 8 February 2020, to the next election, which can be held no later than March 2025.

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Constituency Review Report 2023" (PDF). Electoral Commission. p. 7. Archived (PDF) from the original on 30 August 2023. Retrieved 30 August 2023.
  2. ^ O'Neill, Lesley (8 May 2024). "A change is gonna come". Law Society Gazette. Archived from the original on 26 September 2024. Retrieved 26 September 2024.
  3. ^ "Electoral (Amendment) Act 2023 – Schedule". Irish Statute Book. 19 December 2023. Archived from the original on 2 July 2024. Retrieved 1 July 2024.
  4. ^ McQuinn, Cormac (23 June 2022). "Census results create a tricky and potentially controversial task for new Electoral Commission". The Irish Times. Archived from the original on 28 June 2022. Retrieved 28 June 2022.
  5. ^ Electoral Reform Act 2022, s. 57: Constituency review reports (No. 30 of 2022, s. 57). Enacted on 25 July 2022. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book.
  6. ^ McGee, Harry (13 April 2022). "Number of Dáil seats to reach record high after next election". The Irish Times. Archived from the original on 13 April 2022. Retrieved 11 May 2022.
  7. ^ "Dáil Éireann (House of Representatives)". Inter-Parliamentary Union. Archived from the original on 7 March 2016. Retrieved 24 March 2019.; "Electoral Act 1992 [Part XIX]". Irish Statute Book. 5 November 1992. Archived from the original on 14 January 2020. Retrieved 15 January 2020.
  8. ^ Electoral Act 1992, s. 36: Re-election of outgoing Chairman of Dáil (No. 23 of 1992, s. 36). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Archived from the original on 8 December 2015. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 16 June 2020.
  9. ^ Electoral Act 1992, s. 33: Maximum duration of Dáil (No. 23 of 1992, s. 33). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.
  10. ^ Electoral Act 1992, s. 39: Issue and return of writs (No. 23 of 1992, s. 39). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.
  11. ^ Electoral Act 1992, s. 96: Times of poll (No. 23 of 1992, s. 96). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.; Electoral (Amendment) Act 2001, s. 23: Amendment of section 96 of Principal Act (No. 38 of 2001, s. 23). Enacted on 24 October 2001. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.
  12. ^ "Dáil Éireann". Citizens Information. 30 August 2023. Archived from the original on 18 March 2024. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
  13. ^ "Constitution of Ireland". Irish Statute Book. January 2020. Archived from the original on 23 April 2022. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
  14. ^ Leahy, Pat (2 March 2024). "I've worked out when the general election is most likely to be". The Irish Times. Archived from the original on 30 June 2024. Retrieved 30 June 2024. The last possible polling day is Saturday, March 22nd, 2025
  15. ^ Cox, James (31 December 2023). "2024: A massive year of elections looms". BreakingNews.ie. The Irish Times DAC. Archived from the original on 2 July 2024. Retrieved 1 July 2024. The next general election has to be held by March 2025
  16. ^ "The timing of a general election - what options does Simon Harris have for going to the people?". The Irish Times. Archived from the original on 5 October 2024. Retrieved 19 October 2024.
  17. ^ "Poll: Nation wants a general election now, despite government vow to go full-term to next year". Irish Independent. 6 October 2024. Archived from the original on 6 October 2024. Retrieved 20 October 2024.
  18. ^ "Election before Christmas? Okay, says Micheál Martin". The Irish Times. Retrieved 19 October 2024.
  19. ^ "Taoiseach Simon Harris to 'engage with Coalition leaders' before deciding on election date after O'Gorman's comments". The Irish Times. Retrieved 19 October 2024.
  20. ^ "Simon Harris signals election will be in 2024 after 'couple of things' remaining for Government". The Irish Times. Retrieved 21 October 2024.
  21. ^ Ó Cionnaith, Fiachra (7 November 2024). "Taoiseach 'hopes' General Election will be on 29 November". RTÉ News. Archived from the original on 6 November 2024. Retrieved 7 November 2024.
  22. ^ Cunningham, Paul (17 June 2024). "The loopholes to avoiding four by-elections". RTÉ News. Archived from the original on 18 June 2024. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
  23. ^ a b "Resignation of Member". Dáil Debates – Vol. 1058 No. 1. 18 September 2024. Archived from the original on 18 September 2024. Retrieved 24 September 2024.
  24. ^ Hosford, Paul (4 May 2022). "Fine Gael TD and former education minister Joe McHugh won't stand for re-election". Irish Examiner. Cork. ISSN 1393-9564. Archived from the original on 4 May 2022. Retrieved 4 May 2022.
  25. ^ Lehane, Mícheál (4 May 2022). "Donegal TD Joe McHugh won't contest next general election". RTÉ News. Archived from the original on 4 May 2022. Retrieved 4 May 2022.
  26. ^ Lucey, Anne (31 January 2023). "Kerry TD Brendan Griffin will not contest next general election". Irish Examiner. Archived from the original on 31 January 2023. Retrieved 31 January 2023.
  27. ^ McQuinn, Cormac (13 February 2023). "Denis Naughten announces he will not contest next general election". The Irish Times. Archived from the original on 13 February 2023. Retrieved 14 February 2023.
  28. ^ O'Connell, Hugh (18 April 2023). "Fine Gael TD John Paul Phelan confirms he won't stand in next election". Irish Independent. Archived from the original on 19 April 2023. Retrieved 19 April 2023.
  29. ^ Phelan, Ciara (24 April 2023). "Fine Gael's Michael Creed to retire as TD". Irish Examiner. Archived from the original on 25 April 2023. Retrieved 25 April 2023.
  30. ^ Leahy, Pat (23 May 2023). "Fine Gael TD David Stanton announces he will not seek re-election". The Irish Times. Archived from the original on 23 May 2023. Retrieved 23 May 2023.
  31. ^ McGee, Harry; Wilson, Jade; Micalizzi, Alessia (10 July 2023). "People Before Profit TD Bríd Smith to retire from politics at next general election". The Irish Times. Archived from the original on 10 July 2023. Retrieved 10 July 2023.
  32. ^ Matthews, Jane (24 January 2024). "Bríd Smith among 3 People Before Profit candidates announced for European elections". TheJournal.ie. Archived from the original on 26 January 2024. Retrieved 29 January 2024.
  33. ^ O'Connell, Hugh (5 September 2023). "Richard Bruton to stand down as Fine Gael TD at next general election". Irish Independent. Archived from the original on 5 September 2023. Retrieved 5 September 2023.
  34. ^ Lehane, Mícheál (25 September 2023). "Former Minister Charlie Flanagan not contesting next general election". RTÉ News. Archived from the original on 25 September 2023. Retrieved 26 September 2023.
  35. ^ "Brendan Howlin: Former Labour leader and minister will not contest next election". The Irish Times. Archived from the original on 7 October 2023. Retrieved 6 October 2023.
  36. ^ "Labour TD Seán Sherlock says he will not run in next general election". The Irish Times. Archived from the original on 9 October 2023. Retrieved 9 October 2023.
  37. ^ "Maverick former Fianna Fáil TD Marc MacSharry to bow out of politics after more than two decades". Irish Independent. Archived from the original on 2 July 2024. Retrieved 18 October 2023.
  38. ^ "Louth TD Fergus O'Dowd announces intention to stand down at the next General Election". Irish Independent. 27 November 2023. Archived from the original on 27 November 2023. Retrieved 27 November 2023.
  39. ^ "Sinn Féin TD Imelda Munster not to seek re-election at next General Election". Irish Independent. 1 December 2023. Archived from the original on 2 July 2024. Retrieved 1 December 2023.
  40. ^ "Seán Haughey announces he won't contest the next General Election". Irish Examiner. 6 February 2024. Archived from the original on 6 February 2024. Retrieved 6 February 2024.
  41. ^ "'A difficult decision but the right time' – Paul Kehoe becomes ninth Fine Gael TD to stand down at next election". Irish Independent. 12 February 2024. Archived from the original on 12 February 2024. Retrieved 12 February 2024.
  42. ^ "Fine Gael's Ciarán Cannon not contesting next general election over 'toxicity in politics'". RTÉ News. 19 March 2024. Archived from the original on 2 July 2024. Retrieved 19 March 2024.
  43. ^ "Madigan announces resignation as Minister of State, will not contest general election". RTÉ News. 22 March 2024. Archived from the original on 22 March 2024. Retrieved 22 March 2024.
  44. ^ "Ryan will not contest general election, steps down as Green leader". RTÉ News. 18 June 2024. Archived from the original on 18 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
  45. ^ a b Bray, Jennifer (2 July 2024). "Former Social Democrats co-leaders Catherine Murphy and Róisín Shortall to step down". The Irish Times. Archived from the original on 2 July 2024. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
  46. ^ "Simon Coveney announces he won't stand in next election". RTÉ News. 10 July 2024. Retrieved 10 July 2024.
  47. ^ "Former taoiseach Leo Varadkar announces he will not contest next general election". RTÉ News. 16 July 2024. Archived from the original on 16 July 2024. Retrieved 16 July 2024.
  48. ^ "Éamon Ó Cuív will not stand in next general election". RTÉ News. 24 July 2024. Archived from the original on 24 July 2024. Retrieved 24 July 2024.
  49. ^ "Fine Gael's Michael Ring will not contest next general election". RTÉ News. 30 July 2024. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
  50. ^ "Louth Independent TD Peter Fitzpatrick will not contest next general election". The Irish Times. 30 August 2024. Archived from the original on 30 August 2024. Retrieved 30 August 2024.
  51. ^ "English to become 17th Fine Gael TD not contesting next election". RTÉ News. 18 September 2024. Archived from the original on 18 September 2024. Retrieved 18 September 2024.
  52. ^ Lehane, Mícheál (19 October 2024). "Heather Humphreys will not contest next general election". RTÉ News. Retrieved 19 October 2024.
  53. ^ Lehane, Mícheál (21 October 2024). "Fianna Fáil TD Jackie Cahill will not contest election". RTÉ News. Retrieved 21 October 2024.
  54. ^ "No broadcast moratorium for Irish general elections". BBC. 1 November 2024. Retrieved 3 November 2024.
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