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Adam Scaife

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Adam A. Scaife is a British physicist and head of long range prediction at the Met Office.[1] He is also a professor at Exeter University.[2] Scaife carries out research into long range weather forecasting and computer modelling of the climate and has published over 250 peer reviewed studies[3] on atmospheric dynamics, computer modelling and climate as well as popular science [4] and academic books[5] on meteorology.

Career

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Scaife studied Natural Sciences (Physics) at Cambridge University (1988-1991), Environmental Science at Surrey University (1991-1992) and was awarded a PhD in Meteorology from Reading University (1999, academic advisor Prof Ian N James). He joined the Met Office in 1992 where he worked on climate dynamics and the development of improved computer models of the climate.[6][7][8][9] He also joined Exeter University as Professor in Applied Maths in 2017.

Many of his studies show how predictable factors [10] [11][12][13] affect weather from months to decades ahead. Since 2003 he has led teams of scientists in the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, working on climate modeling and long range weather prediction. He now leads research and production of monthly, seasonal and decadal predictions at the Met Office.[14][15] Scaife and his team have made recent advances in long range weather forecasting[16] and have uncovered the paradox that current climate models are better at predicting the real world than they are at predicting themselves.[17] Scaife's recent research demonstrates a link between year to year climate predictions, subtle changes in the rotation rate of the Earth and hence the length of day.

Scaife was co-chair of the World Meteorological Organisation's Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction[18] and served as a member of the scientific steering group of the World Climate Research Programme's core project on the stratosphere and its role in climate.[19] He is a fellow of the Institute of Physics[20] and the Royal Meteorological Society[21] and co-led the World Meteorological Organisation's grand challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction.[22] Scaife is also member of the Royal Meteorological Society climate communications group,[23][24] regularly comments on extreme climate events,[25][26][27][28][29] and is often involved in communicating climate science to the public .[30][31][32][33][34][35][36]

Awards

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  • Institute of Physics Edward Appleton Medal (2020)[37]
  • Royal Meteorological Society's Buchan Prize (2019)[38]
  • Copernicus Medal (2018)[39][40]
  • American Geophysical Union ASCENT Award (2016)[41]
  • Royal Meteorological Society's Adrian Gill Award (2014)[42]
  • L.G. Groves Memorial prize (2013)[43]
  • Lloyds Science of Risk Prize for Climate Science (2011)[44]

References

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  1. ^ "Prof. Adam Scaife". Met Office. 4 April 2014. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  2. ^ "Prof Adam Scaife - CEMPS - - Mathematics, University of Exeter". Emps.exeter.ac.uk. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  3. ^ "Google Scholar - Adam Scaife".
  4. ^ "30s Meteorology".
  5. ^ "Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events".
  6. ^ Scaife, Adam A.; Butchart, Neal; Warner, Christopher; Swinbank, Richard (2002). "Impact of a Spectral Gravity Wave Parameterization on the Stratosphere in the Met Office Unified Model". Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 59 (9): 1473–1489.
  7. ^ Scaife, Adam A.; Butchart, Neal; Warner, Christopher; Stainforth, David; Norton, Warwick; Austin, John (2000). "Realistic Simulations of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a simulation of the global climate". Geophysical Research Letters. 27 (21): 3481–3484. doi:10.1029/2000GL011625.
  8. ^ Butchart, Neal; Scaife, Adam (2000). "Removal of chlorofluorocarbons by increased mass exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere in a changing climate". Nature. 410: 799–802. doi:10.1038/35071047.
  9. ^ Scaife, Adam A.; Copsey, Dan; Gordon, Chris; Harris, Chris; Hinton, Tim; Keeley, Sarah; O'Neill, Alan; Roberts, Malcolm; Williams, Keith (2011). "Improved Atlantic winter blocking in a climate model". Geophysical Research Letters. 38: L23703. doi:10.1029/2011GL049573.
  10. ^ Nature Geoscience. "Angular Momentum, Length of Day and Climate Predictions". Nature. Retrieved 29 September 2023.
  11. ^ Science Media Centre. "El Nino". Science Media Centre. Retrieved 20 December 2015.
  12. ^ Scaife, Adam A.; Ineson, Sarah; Knight, Jeff R.; Gray, Lesley; Kodera, Kunihiko; Smith, Doug M. (2013). "A mechanism for lagged North Atlantic climate response to solar variability". Geophysical Research Letters. 40 (2): 434–439. Bibcode:2013GeoRL..40..434S. doi:10.1002/grl.50099.
  13. ^ Scaife, Adam A.; Athanassiadou, Maria; Andrews, Martin; Arribas, Alberto; Baldwin, Mark; Dunstone, Nick; Knight, Jeff; MacLachlan, Craig; Manzini, Elisa; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Smith, Doug; Stockdale, Tim; Williams, Andrew (2014). "Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales". Geophysical Research Letters. 41 (5): 1752–1758. Bibcode:2014GeoRL..41.1752S. doi:10.1002/2013GL059160. hdl:10871/19674.
  14. ^ "Monthly to Decadal Prediction". Met Office. Retrieved 1 July 2020.
  15. ^ Camp, J.; Roberts, M.; MacLachlan, C.; Wallace, E.; Hermanson, L.; Brookshaw, A.; Arribas, A.; Scaife, A. A. (2015). "Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using the Met Office GloSea5 seasonal forecast system". Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 141 (691): 2206–2219. Bibcode:2015QJRMS.141.2206C. doi:10.1002/qj.2516.
  16. ^ Scaife, A. A.; Arribas, A.; Blockley, E.; Brookshaw, A.; Clark, R. T.; Dunstone, N.; Eade, R.; Fereday, D.; Folland, C. K.; Gordon, M.; Hermanson, L.; Knight, J. R.; Lea, D. J.; MacLachlan, C.; Maidens, A.; Martin, M.; Peterson, A. K.; Smith, D.; Vellinga, M.; Wallace, E.; Waters, J.; Williams, A. (2014). "Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 41 (7): 2514–2519. Bibcode:2014GeoRL..41.2514S. doi:10.1002/2014GL059637. hdl:10871/34601.
  17. ^ Scaife, Adam A.; Smith, Doug (2018). "A Signal to Noise Paradox in Climate Science". npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 1. doi:10.1038/s41612-018-0038-4.
  18. ^ "About WGSIP". Wcrp-climate.org. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  19. ^ SPARC (6 April 2010). "Home :: SPARC". Sparc-climate.org. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  20. ^ "Institute of Physics". IOP.org. Retrieved 28 June 2019.
  21. ^ "Royal Meteorological Society". Rmets.org. Archived from the original on 2 June 2019. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  22. ^ Hall, Isabel. "Near-term Climate Prediction". www.wcrp-climate.org.
  23. ^ "El Nino-Southern Oscillation". Rmets.org. Retrieved 7 July 2019.
  24. ^ "Solar Variability". Rmets.org. Retrieved 7 July 2019.
  25. ^ "2016 Set to be Hottest Year on Record". Telegraph Newspaper. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  26. ^ "El Niño is back in town". Geographical. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  27. ^ Nicola Davis (11 February 2014). "Why has it rained so much in the UK – and is it climate change? | Environment". The Guardian. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  28. ^ "December 2015 record weather in the UK?". Met office. 31 December 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2018.
  29. ^ McGrath, Matt (6 February 2019). "Warmest Decade". BBC News.
  30. ^ Devlin, Hannah (3 May 2015). "Climate Science Myths". The Guardian. Guardian Newspaper. Retrieved 20 December 2015.
  31. ^ "Horizon: Season 50, Episode 14 : What's Wrong with Our Weather?". IMDb.com. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  32. ^ Briggs, Helen (21 May 2015). "El Nino could 'disrupt food markets' - BBC News". BBC News. Bbc.co.uk. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  33. ^ "Horizon: Season 48, Episode 13 : Global Weirding (27 March 2012)". IMDb.com. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  34. ^ "Slowdown in Global Warming". Met Office. 19 September 2017. Retrieved 11 January 2018.
  35. ^ "El Nino explainer". Royal Meteorological Society. 8 June 2018. Retrieved 7 November 2019.
  36. ^ "Predictability Beyond the Weather Forecast". Manchester Literary and Scientific Society. 11 December 2018. Retrieved 1 July 2020.
  37. ^ "Edward Appleton Medal 2020".
  38. ^ "The Buchan Prize 2019".
  39. ^ "The Copernicus Medal".
  40. ^ "Met Office Blog".
  41. ^ "Scaife Receives 2016 Atmospheric Sciences Ascent Award - Honors Program".
  42. ^ "Adrian Gill Prize". Rmets.org.
  43. ^ "LG Groves Memorial Prize".
  44. ^ "Lloyd's Science of Risk : 2011 Conference and Winners" (PDF). Lloyds.com.
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