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Next Bangladeshi general election

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Next Bangladeshi general election

← 2024 TBA[a]

All 300 directly elected seats in the Jatiya Sangsad
151 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Sheikh Hasina at Hyderabad House, New Delhi on June 22, 2024 (cropped).jpg
GM Quader 2023.png
Khaleda_Zia_Poses_for_a_Photo_with_Secretary_Kerry_at_U.S._Embassy_Dhaka_(29284522026)_(cropped).jpg
Leader Sheikh Hasina GM Quader Khaleda Zia
Party AL JP(E) BNP
Alliance GA
Leader since 16 February 1981 8 February 2018 10 May 1984
Last election 224 11 Boycotted
Seats needed Steady Increase 140 Increase 151

 
Syed Muhammad Rezaul Karim (2019).jpg
Shafiqur Rahman.jpg
Leader Rezaul Karim Shafiqur Rahman
Party IAB Jamaat-e-Islami
Leader since 25 November 2006 12 November 2019
Last election Boycotted Deregistered
Seats needed Increase 151 Increase 151

Constituency map

Incumbent Chief Adviser

Muhammad Yunus
Independent (interim)



The next general elections in Bangladesh are expected to take place to elect members of the 13th Jatiya Sangsad, following the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina's government by student-led protests, and the implementation of constitutional and institutional reforms by the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus. A constituent assembly election will take place before the general elections,[1] The interim government has established a Constitutional Reform Commission for this purpose.

Background

[edit]

The 12th Sangsad was dissolved by President Mohammed Shahabuddin following the resignation of Sheikh Hasina.[2] In June 2024, student protests erupted throughout the country, demanding the reform of quotas in government jobs. The protests were met with brutal crackdown by law-enforcement agencies and paramilitary forces, resulting in the deaths of many students. By August, the protests intensified into large-scale civil unrest against the government which eventually culminated in Hasina's resignation on 5 August.

Following negotiations between student leaders and the Armed Forces, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was appointed as Chief Adviser to head an interim government with a view to leading the country to new elections.[3]

The Awami League won the January 2024 general elections and formed the government.[4] There was record low turnout, and it was a controversial election. The United States Department of State, in a statement, said that the election was not free and fair[5] and the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office termed the election lacking the preconditions of democracy.[6] According to The Economist, through this election, Bangladesh effectively became a one-party state.[7]

The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), demanded that the government hand over power to a neutral caretaker government before the January 2024 elections.[8] This was rejected by Hasina, who vowed that "Bangladesh will never allow an unelected government again".[9] Hasina's resistance to a caretaker government arose following the 2006–2008 crisis, during which a caretaker government assumed military control of the country and arrested a number of political leaders, including Hasina and Khaleda Zia. [10] Zia was sentenced to prison for five years on February 8, 2018, for her involvement in the Zia Orphanage corruption case.[11] The sentence was then modified to 10 years.[12] Zia’s successor as chair of the party, her son Tarique Rahman, was also found guilty of criminal conspiracy and multiple counts of murder for a grenade attack in 2004 that injured Hasina and killed 24 people.[13] He was sentenced to life in prison. As such, he was barred from running for office.[14] Zia was released by Shahabuddin following Hasina's resignation.[15]

Electoral system

[edit]

The 350 members of the Jatiya Sangsad consist of 300 directly elected seats using first-past-the-post voting (FPTP) in single-member constituencies, and an additional 50 seats reserved for women. The reserved seats are elected proportionally by the elected members. Each parliament sits for a five-year term.[16] The electoral system has been criticised as disproportional[17][18][19] and a key driver of political deadlock in the country.[19] Some of the leading minor parties, including Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, Islami Andolan Bangladesh, Communist Party of Bangladesh, Gono Odhikar Parishad, Amar Bangladesh Party etc., had been in staunch opposition to the system and in support of proportional representation (PR), where Bangladesh Nationalist Party remains a supporter of FPTP.[20][21][22][23]

Parties and alliances

[edit]
Alliance/Party Flag Leader Seats Contested Seats Contested under Alliance
Jamaat Shafiqur Rahman
GA AL Sheikh Hasina
JaSaD Hasanul Haque Inu
WPB Rashed Khan Menon
GP Arosh Ali
JP(M) Anwar Hossain Manju
BTF Syed Najibul Bashar Maizbhandari
BSD-ML Dilip Barua
JF BKP Syed Muhammad Ibrahim
BJP(M) Mohammed Abdul Muqit
BML(B) Sheikh Zulfiqar Bulbul Chowdhury
LDA CPB 100×100px Shah Alam
BaSaD Bazlur Rashid Firoz
RCLB Mosharraf Hossain Nannu
BaSaD–M Mubinul Haider Chowdhury
GM JSD(R) A.S.M. Abdur Rab
RWPB Saiful Haq
GSA 50×50px Zonayed Saki
JP(E) GM Quader
ZP Mustafa Amir Faisal
TBNP Shamsher Mobin Chowdhury
BKSJL Kader Siddique
BDB Bikalpadhara Bangladesh A. Q. M. Badruddoza Chowdhury
GF Kamal Hossain
BNP Khaleda Zia
IAB Rezaul Karim
BJP Andaleeve Rahman
LDP Oli Ahmed
ABP Abdul Wohab
GOP Nurul Haq Nur

Surveys and polls

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Opinion polls

[edit]
Vote share projections
Polling agency Date published Sample size Margin of error AL JP(E) BNP IAB Jamaat Student supported–New Party Others Independents None "Can't say"/Undecided Lead
Bangladesh Speaks September 2024 5,115 (field) ± 1.4% 5% 1% 21% 3% 14% 10% 1% 3% 2% 38% 7%
3,581 (online) ± 1.67% 10% 0% 10% 1% 25% 35% 1% 3% 3% 11% 10%
Average 7.5% 0.5% 15.5% 2% 19.5% 22.5% 1% 3% 2.5% 24.5% 3%
Seat projections
Polling agency Date published Sample size Margin of error AL JP(E) BNP IAB Jamaat Others Lead

Exit polls

[edit]
Vote share projections
Polling agency Date published Sample size Margin of error AL JP(E) BNP IAB Jamaat Others Lead
Seat projections
Polling agency Date published Sample size Margin of error AL JP(E) BNP IAB Jamaat Others Lead

Results

[edit]
Party
Awami League
Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami
Bangladesh Nationalist Party
Islami Andolan Bangladesh
Jatiya Party (Ershad)
Other parties
Independents
Total

Division wise

[edit]
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Rangpur Division
Party Seats Votes
Contested Won +/– In total Average
% +/–pp
AL
JP(E)
BNP
IAB
Jamaat-e-Islami
Others
IND
Total
Valid Votes
Invalid Votes
Total Votes Cast
Registered/Turnout
Source:
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Rajshahi Division
Party Seats Votes
Contested Won +/– In total Average
% +/–pp
AL
JP(E)
BNP
IAB
Jamaat-e-Islami
Others
IND
Total
Valid Votes
Invalid Votes
Total Votes Cast
Registered/Turnout
Source:
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Khulna Division
Party Seats Votes
Contested Won +/– In total Average
% +/–pp
AL
JP(E)
BNP
IAB
Jamaat-e-Islami
Others
IND
Total
Valid Votes
Invalid Votes
Total Votes Cast
Registered/Turnout
Source:
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Barishal Division
Party Seats Votes
Contested Won +/– In total Average
% +/–pp
AL
JP(E)
BNP
IAB
Jamaat-e-Islami
Others
IND
Total
Valid Votes
Invalid Votes
Total Votes Cast
Registered/Turnout
Source:
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Mymensingh Division
Party Seats Votes
Contested Won +/– In total Average
% +/–pp
AL
JP(E)
BNP
IAB
Jamaat-e-Islami
Others
IND
Total
Valid Votes
Invalid Votes
Total Votes Cast
Registered/Turnout
Source:
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Dhaka Division
Party Seats Votes
Contested Won +/– In total Average
% +/–pp
AL
JP(E)
BNP
IAB
Jamaat-e-Islami
Others
IND
Total
Valid Votes
Invalid Votes
Total Votes Cast
Registered/Turnout
Source:
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Sylhet Division
Party Seats Votes
Contested Won +/– In total Average
% +/–pp
AL
JP(E)
BNP
IAB
Jamaat-e-Islami
Others
IND
Total
Valid Votes
Invalid Votes
Total Votes Cast
Registered/Turnout
Source:
Next Bangladeshi general election (13th Jatiya Sangsad) : Chattogram Division
Party Seats Votes
Contested Won +/– In total Average
% +/–pp
AL
JP(E)
BNP
IAB
Jamaat-e-Islami
Others
IND
Total
Valid Votes
Invalid Votes
Total Votes Cast
Registered/Turnout
Source:

Constituency-wise

[edit]
Parliamentary Constituency Winner Runner Up Margin Turnout
No. Division Name Total Voters Candidate Party Votes % Candidate Party Votes %
1 Rangpur Division Panchagarh-1
2 Panchagarh-2
3 Thakurgaon-1
4 Thakurgaon-2
5 Thakurgaon-3
6 Dinajpur-1
7 Dinajpur-2
8 Dinajpur-3
9 Dinajpur-4
10 Dinajpur-5
11 Dinajpur-6
12 Nilphamari-1
13 Nilphamari-2
14 Nilphamari-3
15 Nilphamari-4
16 Lalmonirhat-1
17 Lalmonirhat-2
18 Lalmonirhat-3
19 Rangpur-1
20 Rangpur-2
21 Rangpur-3
22 Rangpur-4
23 Rangpur-5
24 Rangpur-6
25 Kurigram-1
26 Kurigram-2
27 Kurigram-3
28 Kurigram-4
29 Gaibandha-1
30 Gaibandha-2
31 Gaibandha-3
32 Gaibandha-4
33 Gaibandha-5
34 Rajshahi Division Joypurhat-1
35 Joypurhat-2
36 Bogra-1
37 Bogra-2
38 Bogra-3
39 Bogra-4
40 Bogra-5
41 Bogra-6
42 Bogra-7
43 Chapainawabganj-1
44 Chapainawabganj-2
45 Chapainawabganj-3
46 Naogaon-1
47 Naogaon-2
48 Naogaon-3
49 Naogaon-4
50 Naogaon-5
51 Naogaon-6
52 Rajshahi-1
53 Rajshahi-2
54 Rajshahi-3
55 Rajshahi-4
56 Rajshahi-5
57 Rajshahi-6
58 Natore-1
59 Natore-2
60 Natore-3
61 Natore-4
62 Sirajganj-1
63 Sirajganj-2
64 Sirajganj-3
65 Sirajganj-4
66 Sirajganj-5
67 Sirajganj-6
68 Pabna-1
69 Pabna-2
70 Pabna-3
71 Pabna-4
72 Pabna-5
73 Khulna Division
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109 Barishal Division Bhola-1
110 Bhola-2
111 Bhola-3
112 Bhola-4
113 Barisal-1
114 Barisal-2
115 Barisal-3
116 Barisal-4
117 Barisal-5
118 Barisal-6
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130 Dhaka Division
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138 Mymensingh Division
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162 Dhaka Division
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224 Sylhet Division
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243 Chattogram Division
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ It is likely to take place between 2025 and 2026.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Constituent assembly to be convened for charter reform: Nahid". Archived from the original on September 24, 2024.
  2. ^ "Bangladesh Parliament dissolved, president's office says". Reuters. 6 August 2024. Retrieved 9 August 2024.
  3. ^ "Who is Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel laureate leader of Bangladesh's interim government?". CNN. 9 August 2024. Retrieved 7 August 2024.
  4. ^ "Sheikh Hasina wins fifth term in Bangladesh amid turnout controversy". Al Jazeera. 4 January 2024. Retrieved 9 August 2024.
  5. ^ "Bangladesh Election 'Not Free Or Fair': US". Barron's. Archived from the original on 8 January 2024. Retrieved 9 January 2024.
  6. ^ "UK Says Boycotted Bangladesh Poll Not 'Democratic'". Barron's. Agence France-Presse. Archived from the original on 10 January 2024. Retrieved 9 January 2024.
  7. ^ "Bangladesh is now in effect a one-party state". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. Archived from the original on 9 January 2024. Retrieved 9 January 2024.
  8. ^ Kamruzzaman, Md. (January 17, 2023). "Bangladesh's main opposition party demands formation of caretaker government ahead of polls". Anadolu Agency. Retrieved 20 April 2024.
  9. ^ "Bangladesh will never allow an unelected government again, says Hasina". BDNews24. February 10, 2023. Retrieved 20 April 2023.
  10. ^ "Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Arrested". NPR. 16 July 2007.
  11. ^ "Minister: Khaleda Zia's release will be revoked if she participates in politics". Dhaka Tribune. June 11, 2023.
  12. ^ "Zia Orphanage Graft Case: Khaleda's jail term raised to 10 years". The Daily Star. October 31, 2018.
  13. ^ "Tarique Rahman acting chairman: BNP leader". The Daily Star. February 8, 2018.
  14. ^ "Adequate data found to try Jamaat for war crimes". Bangladesh Post. June 11, 2023.
  15. ^ "Who is Khaleda Zia, Sheikh Hasina's rival and former Bangladesh PM who was on 'deathbed' a few months ago". The Economic Times. 6 August 2024. Retrieved 9 August 2024.
  16. ^ "IPU Parline database: Bangladesh (Jatiya Sangsad), Electoral system". Inter-Parliamentary Union. Retrieved 18 April 2021.
  17. ^ Katherine L. Ekstrand, No Matter Who Draws the Lines: A Comparative Analysis of the Utility of Independent Redistricting Commissions in First-Past-the-Post Democracies, 45 GJICL (2016).
  18. ^ "4: Persistent Factionalism: Bangladesh, Bolivia, Zimbabwe", Democratization and the Mischief of Faction, Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1 July 2018, pp. 85–112, doi:10.1515/9781626377363-006, ISBN 978-1-62637-736-3, retrieved 7 October 2024
  19. ^ a b "Women's Reserved Seats in Bangladesh: A Systemic Analysis of Meaningful Representation". International Foundation for Electoral Systems. June 2016. Retrieved 7 October 2024.
  20. ^ প্রধান উপদেষ্টার সঙ্গে পীর সাহেব চরমোনাই'র নেতৃত্বে ৬ সদস্যের প্রতিনিধি দলের সংলাপ. Islami Andolan Bangladesh. 5 October 2024.
  21. ^ "পিআর নির্বাচন পদ্ধতি কী? প্রচলিত ব্যবস্থার সঙ্গে পার্থক্য কোথায়". Jugantor. 20 October 2024.
  22. ^ "সংখ্যানুপাতিক নির্বাচন পদ্ধতি কী, কীভাবে হতে পারে বাস্তবায়ন". www.banglanews24.com. 16 October 2024.
  23. ^ বাশার, খাইরুল (24 October 2024). "কেমন হবে যদি নির্বাচন হয় সংখ্যানুপাতিক পদ্ধতিতে". Shokal Shondha.