Opinion polling for the 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom
Various opinion polls were conducted in advance of the 2019 European Parliament election. Before the April delay, a number of polls asked respondents to imagine how they would vote in a then-hypothetical scenario in which European elections would be held.
Great Britain
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit]The chart below depicts opinion polls conducted for the 2019 European Parliament elections in the UK; trendlines are local regressions (LOESS).
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National opinion polling
[edit]| Pollster/client(s) | Date(s) conducted |
Area | Sample size |
UKIP | Lab | Con | Green | Lib Dem | SNP | Plaid Cymru | Change UK | Brexit Party | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 European Parliament election | 23 May 2019 | GB | – | 3.3% | 14.1% | 9.1% | 12.1%[a] | 20.3% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 3.4% | 31.6% | 1.6% | 11.3% |
| UK | 3.2% | 13.6% | 8.8% | 11.8%[b] | 19.6% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 3.3% | 30.5% | 4.7% | 11.0% | |||
| Survation/Daily Mail | 22 May 2019 | UK | 2,029 | 3% | 23% | 14% | 7% | 12% | 3% | – | 4% | 31% | 4% | 8% |
| BMG/The Independent | 20–22 May 2019 | GB | 1,601 | 2% | 18% | 12% | 8% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 35% | 1% | 17% |
| Ipsos MORI/The Evening Standard | 20–22 May 2019 | GB | 1,527 | 3% | 15% | 9% | 10% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 35% | 3% | 15% |
| YouGov/The Times | 19–21 May 2019 | GB | 3,864 | 3% | 13% | 7% | 12% | 19% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 37% | 2% | 18% |
| Number Cruncher Politics | 18–21 May 2019 | GB | 1,005 | 2% | 19% | 15% | 7% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 33% | 1% | 14% |
| Kantar | 14–21 May 2019 | GB | 2,316 | 4% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 27% | 1% | 3% |
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 14–21 May 2019 | GB | 2,033 | 3% | 25% | 12% | 7% | 15% | 4% | – | 3% | 30% | 1% | 5% |
| Opinium | 17–20 May 2019 | UK | 2,005 | 2% | 17% | 12% | 7% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 38% | 2% | 21% |
| Survation/Daily Mail | 17 May 2019 | UK | 1,000 | 3% | 24% | 14% | 4% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 30% | 4%[c] | 6% |
| ComRes/Electoral Calculus/Centrum Campaign | 13–17 May 2019 | GB | 4,161 | 3% | 22% | 12% | 7% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 32% | 1% | 10% |
| YouGov/Best for Britain/Hope Not Hate | 8–17 May 2019 | GB | 9,260 | 3% | 15% | 9% | 11% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 34% | 3% | 17% |
| ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Sunday Express | 15–16 May 2019 | GB | 2,041 | 2% | 23% | 9% | 9% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 31% | 1% | 8% |
| Opinium/The Observer | 14–16 May 2019 | UK | 2,009 | 2% | 20% | 12% | 6% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 34% | 3% | 14% |
| YouGov/The Times | 12–16 May 2019 | GB | 7,192 | 3% | 15% | 9% | 10% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 35% | 3% | 19% |
| Hanbury Strategy/Politico | 9–13 May 2019 | GB | 2,000 | 3% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 14% | 4% | – | 6% | 30% | 0% | 5% |
| ComRes/The Daily Telegraph | 10–12 May 2019 | GB | 2,028 | 3% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 6% | 27% | 1% | 2% |
| Opinium/The Observer | 8–10 May 2019 | UK | 2,004 | 4% | 21% | 11% | 8% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 34% | 2% | 13% |
| BMG/The Independent | 7–10 May 2019 | GB | 1,541 | 3% | 22% | 12% | 10% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 26% | 1% | 4% |
| ComRes/Brexit Express | 9 May 2019 | GB | 2,034 | 3% | 25% | 13% | 8% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 6% | 27% | 1% | 2% |
| Survation/Good Morning Britain | 8–9 May 2019 | UK | 1,303 | 4% | 24% | 12% | 7%[d] | 11% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 30% | 3%[e] | 6% |
| YouGov/The Times | 8–9 May 2019 | GB | 2,212 | 3% | 16% | 10% | 11% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 34% | 3% | 18% |
| Opinium/People's Vote | 3–7 May 2019 | UK | 2,000 | 4% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 29% | 1% | 3% |
| ComRes/Electoral Calculus/Centrum Campaign | 1–6 May 2019 | GB | 4,060 | 2% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 8% | 28% | 1% | 2% |
| Local elections in England and Northern Ireland[1][2] | ||||||||||||||
| YouGov/The Times | 29–30 Apr 2019 | GB | 1,630 | 4% | 21% | 13% | 9% | 10% | 4% | 9% | 30% | 1% | 9% | |
| YouGov/Hope Not Hate | 23–26 Apr 2019 | GB | 5,412 | 5% | 22% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 10% | 28% | 1% | 6% | |
| Survation | 17–25 Apr 2019 | UK | 1,999 | 7% | 27% | 16% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 27% | 3%[c] | Tie |
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 18–24 Apr 2019 | GB | 2,030 | 5% | 33% | 20% | 4% | 7% | 4% | – | 5% | 20% | 1% | 13% |
| Opinium/The Observer | 21–23 Apr 2019 | UK | 2,004 | 3% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 7% | 28% | 1% | Tie |
| YouGov/The Times | 16–17 Apr 2019 | GB | 1,755 | 6% | 22% | 17% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 8% | 23% | 1% | 1% | |
| ComRes/Brexit Express | 16 Apr 2019 | GB | 1,061 | 5% | 33% | 18% | 5% | 9% | 4% | 0% | 9% | 17% | 1% | 15% |
| YouGov/People's Vote | 15–16 Apr 2019 | GB | 1,855 | 7% | 22% | 15% | 10% | 9% | 4% | 6% | 27% | 1% | 5% | |
| Opinium/The Observer | 9–12 Apr 2019 | UK | 2,007 | 13% | 29% | 17% | 6% | 10% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 12% | 2% | 12% |
| YouGov/The Times | 10–11 Apr 2019 | GB | 1,843 | 14% | 24% | 16% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 15% | 1% | 8% | |
| Hanbury Strategy/Open Europe | 5–8 Apr 2019 | GB | 2,000 | 8% | 38% | 23% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 10% | 1% | 15% |
| Opinium/The Observer | 28–29 Mar 2019 | UK | 2,008 | 18% | 30% | 24% | 8% | 10% | 4% | 1% | – | – | 5% | 6% |
| Nigel Farage becomes leader of the Brexit Party[3] | ||||||||||||||
| Opinium/The Observer | 12–15 Mar 2019 | UK | 2,008 | 17% | 29% | 28% | 6% | 11% | 4% | 1% | – | – | 5% | 1% |
| Number Cruncher Politics/Politico | 10–17 Jan 2019 | UK | 1,003 | 10% | 37% | 36% | 5% | 8% | 3% | 1% | – | – | 1% | 1% |
| 2014 European Parliament election | 22 May 2014 | GB | – | 27.5% | 25.4% | 23.9% | 7.9%[a] | 6.9% | 2.5% | 0.7% | – | – | 5.3% | 2.1% |
| UK | 26.6% | 24.4% | 23.0% | 7.6%[b] | 6.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% | – | – | 8.6% | 2.2% | |||
MRP and RPP estimates
[edit]ComRes, like YouGov in the 2017 general election, employed multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) as well as regularised prediction and poststratification (RPP) to model voting behavior in every region in Great Britain using large numbers of survey interviews on voting intentions (an approach described as identifying "patterns in responses across [regions] that have similar characteristics, and then work[ing] out the implications of those patterns for each").[4]
| Pollster/client(s) | Date(s) conducted |
Area | Sample size |
UKIP | Lab | Con | Green | Lib Dem | SNP | Plaid Cymru | Change UK | Brexit Party | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 European Parliament election | 23 May 2019 | GB | – | 3.3% | 14.1% | 9.1% | 12.1%[a] | 20.3% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 3.4% | 31.6% | 1.6% | 11.3% |
| UK | 3.2% | 13.6% | 8.8% | 11.8%[b] | 19.6% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 3.3% | 30.5% | 4.7% | 11.0% | |||
| ComRes/Electoral Calculus/Centrum Campaign (RPP) | 13–17 May 2019 | GB | 3,572 | 2% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 15% | 4% | 4% | 32% | 0% | 8% | |
| ComRes/Electoral Calculus/Centrum Campaign (MRP) | 1–6 May 2019 | GB | 3,583 | 3% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 11% | 4% | 8% | 26% | 0% | 1% | |
| 2014 European Parliament election | 22 May 2014 | GB | – | 27.5% | 25.4% | 23.9% | 7.9%[a] | 6.9% | 2.5% | 0.7% | – | – | 5.3% | 2.1% |
| UK | 26.6% | 24.4% | 23.0% | 7.6%[b] | 6.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% | – | – | 8.6% | 2.2% | |||
London only
[edit]| Pollster/client(s) | Date(s) conducted |
Sample size |
Lab | Con | UKIP | Green | Lib Dem | Change UK | Brexit Party | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 European Parliament election | 23 May 2019 | – | 23.9% | 7.9% | 2.1% | 12.4% | 27.2% | 5.2% | 17.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| YouGov/Queen Mary University of London | 7–10 May 2019 | 1,015 | 24% | 10% | 1% | 14% | 17% | 7% | 20% | 5% | 4% |
| 2014 European Parliament election | 22 May 2014 | – | 36.7% | 22.5% | 16.9% | 8.9% | 6.7% | – | – | 8.3% | 14.1% |
Scotland only
[edit]| Pollster/client(s) | Date(s) conducted |
Sample size |
SNP | Lab | Con | UKIP | Green | Lib Dem | Change UK | Brexit Party | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 European Parliament election | 23 May 2019 | – | 37.8% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 1.8% | 8.2% | 13.9% | 1.9% | 14.8% | 0.5% | 23.0% |
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 14–17 May 2019 | 1,021 | 38% | 16% | 11% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 2% | 16% | <1% | 22% |
| YouGov/The Times | 24–26 Apr 2019 | 1,029 | 40% | 14% | 10% | 3% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 13% | 0% | 26% |
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 18–24 Apr 2019 | 1,018 | 39% | 20% | 16% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 10% | <1% | 19% |
| 2014 European Parliament election | 22 May 2014 | – | 29.0% | 25.9% | 17.2% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | – | – | 2.3% | 3.1% |
Wales only
[edit]| Pollster/client(s) | Date(s) conducted |
Sample size |
Lab | UKIP | Con | Plaid Cymru | Green | Lib Dem | Change UK | Brexit Party | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 European Parliament election | 23 May 2019 | – | 15.3% | 3.3% | 6.5% | 19.6% | 6.3% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 32.5% | – | 12.9% |
| YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 16–20 May 2019 | 1,009 | 15% | 2% | 7% | 19% | 8% | 10% | 2% | 36% | 1% | 17% |
| YouGov/Plaid Cymru | 10–15 May 2019 | 1,113 | 18% | 3% | 7% | 16% | 8% | 10% | 4% | 33% | 0% | 15% |
| YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 2–5 Apr 2019 | 1,025 | 30% | 11% | 16% | 15% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 1% | 14% |
| 2014 European Parliament election | 22 May 2014 | – | 28.1% | 27.6% | 17.4% | 15.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | – | – | 3.1% | 0.6% |
Northern Ireland
[edit]The following polls reflect first preferences only.
| Pollster/client(s) | Date(s) conducted |
Sample size |
Sinn Féin | DUP | UUP | SDLP | TUV | Alliance | UKIP | Green | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 European Parliament election | 23 May 2019 | – | 22.2% | 21.8% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 10.8% | 18.5% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| LucidTalk/The Times/U105[5] | 18–19 May 2019 | 1,482 | 26.3% | 21.8% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 0.9%[f] | 4.5% |
| LucidTalk/The Times/U105[5] | 4–7 May 2019 | 1,405 | 27.2% | 20.2% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 1.6%[g] | 7.0% |
| 2014 European Parliament election | 22 May 2014 | – | 25.5% | 20.9% | 13.3% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 4.6% |
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d Including the Scottish Green Party
- ^ a b c d Including the Scottish Green Party and the Green Party in Northern Ireland
- ^ a b Including the DUP with 2% and English Democrats with 1%
- ^ Including the Scottish Green Party with 1%
- ^ Including the DUP with 2%
- ^ Includes independent Jane Morrice with 0.7%
- ^ Includes independent Jane Morrice with 1.4%
References
[edit]- ^ "England local elections 2019". BBC News. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
- ^ "Northern Ireland local elections 2019". BBC News. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
- ^ "Nigel Farage back in frontline politics as Brexit Party leader". BBC News. 22 March 2019. Retrieved 22 May 2019.
- ^ "YouGov UK General Election MRP Estimates - February 2019" (PDF). YouGov. 11 February 2019. Retrieved 22 May 2019.
- ^ a b "NI TRACKER POLL – NI EUROPEAN ELECTION (23RD May 2019) POLL QUESTIONS RESULTS – GENERAL REPORT" (PDF). LucidTalk. 30 May 2019. Retrieved 2 June 2019.