Statewide opinion polling for the June 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries
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 Leading Republican 2012 primary candidate by state (parentheses indicate a shared lead, italics indicates polling data, non-italics indicates a primary win). Stars indicate a completed primary. States in gray have no polling data or no relevant data due to a leading candidate having withdrawn or declined to enter the race.
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This article contains opinion polling by U.S. state for the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries.
As of May 2012, both Ron Paul and Mitt Romney have led polls in multiple states. They have both also reached at least 20 percent in polls in multiple states. Before announcing that they would not run, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin were also leading polls in multiple states with numbers above 20 percent. Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum were also able to lead polls in multiple states earlier in the race, but Cain suspended his campaign on December 3 after multiple allegations of sexual impropriety,[1] Bachmann dropped out on January 4, one day after her poor showing in the Iowa caucuses, in which she came in sixth place and received just 5 percent of the vote,[2] Perry dropped out on January 19 after finishing fifth in Iowa with just over 10 percent of the vote, finishing sixth in New Hampshire with less than 1 percent of the vote and with "lagging" poll numbers ahead of the South Carolina primary,[3] and Santorum suspended his campaign on April 10.[4] Newt Gingrich announced he would drop out of the race after a poor showing in the northeast on April 24.[5]
Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Jeb Bush of Florida, Chris Christie of New Jersey, Jim DeMint of South Carolina, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and John Thune of South Dakota all succeeded in leading polls in their home states at some point in 2011, although only Pawlenty actually launched a campaign. Pawlenty exited the race on August 14, one day after finishing third in Iowa's Ames Straw Poll, citing a lack of campaign funds.[6][7]
Polling for completed primaries
[edit]Winner: 
Mitt Romney
Primary date: June 5, 2012
Delegates: 172
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[8] Margin of error: ±4.8% Sample size: 439 |
Mar. 29 – Apr. 2, 2012 | Mitt Romney 44% |
Rick Santorum 23% |
Newt Gingrich 12% |
Ron Paul 12%, Other 1%, Undecided 8% |
| USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times [9] Margin of error: Sample size: 465 |
Mar. 14–19, 2012 | Mitt Romney 42% |
Rick Santorum 23% |
Newt Gingrich 12% |
Ron Paul 10%, Other 2%, Undecided 9%, Will not vote 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports[10] Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 750 |
Mar. 12, 2012 | Mitt Romney 43% |
Rick Santorum 23% |
Newt Gingrich 15% |
Ron Paul 8%, Someone other candidate 3%, Undecided 8% |
| Mitt Romney 55% |
Rick Santorum 36% |
– | – | ||
| Public Policy Institute[11] Margin of error: ±7.4% Sample size: 281 |
Feb. 21–28, 2012 | Mitt Romney 28% |
Rick Santorum 22% |
Newt Gingrich 17% |
Ron Paul 8%, Someone else 2%, Don't know 22% |
| Field[12] Margin of error: ±7% Sample size: 220 |
Feb. 11–18, 2012 | Mitt Romney 31% |
Rick Santorum 25% |
Ron Paul 16% |
Newt Gingrich 12%, Other 2%, Undecided 14% |
| Field[13] Margin of error: ±7% Sample size: 180 |
Feb. 2–10, 2012 | Mitt Romney 38% |
Rick Santorum 18% |
Newt Gingrich 13% |
Ron Paul 9%, Other 4%, Undecided 18% |
| SurveyUSA[14] Margin of error: ±4.6% Sample size: 479 |
Feb. 8–9, 2012 | Mitt Romney 33% |
Rick Santorum 31% |
Newt Gingrich 17% |
Ron Paul 9%, Other 3%, Undecided 7% |
| Public Policy Institute[15] Margin of error: ±8.1% Sample size: 286 |
Nov. 29 – Dec. 5, 2011 | Newt Gingrich 30% |
Mitt Romney 24% |
Herman Cain 8% |
Ron Paul 8%, Rick Perry 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Michele Bachmann 3%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Someone else 1%, Don't know 16% |
| Newt Gingrich 33% |
Mitt Romney 25% |
Ron Paul 9% |
Michele Bachmann 7%, Rick Perry 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Someone else 1%, Don't know 16% | ||
| Field[16] Margin of error: ±5.7% Sample size: 330 |
Nov. 15–27, 2011 | Mitt Romney 26% |
Newt Gingrich 23% |
Herman Cain 9% |
Ron Paul 5%, Michele Bachmann 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Other 2%, Undecided 26% |
| Public Policy Polling[17] Margin of error: ±5.5% Sample size: 316 |
Nov. 10–13, 2011 | Newt Gingrich 33% |
Mitt Romney 23% |
Herman Cain 22% |
Rick Perry 6%, Ron Paul 5%, Michele Bachmann 3%, Gary Johnson 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, someone else/not sure 5% |
| USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[18] Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 434 |
Oct. 30 – Nov. 9, 2011 | Mitt Romney 27% |
Herman Cain 20% |
Newt Gingrich 14% |
Ron Paul 6%, Rick Perry 3%, Michele Bachmann 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Undecided 22%, Other/refused 3% |
| Field[19] Margin of error: ±5.6% Sample size: 333 |
Sep. 1–12, 2011 | Mitt Romney 28% |
Rick Perry 20% |
Sarah Palin 8% |
Newt Gingrich 7%, Ron Paul 7%, Michele Bachmann 6%, Herman Cain 4%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, other/undecided 17% |
| Mitt Romney 30% |
Rick Perry 22% |
Michele Bachmann 7% |
Newt Gingrich 7%, Ron Paul 7%, Herman Cain 4%, Jon Huntsman 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, other/undecided 19% | ||
| USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[20] Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 453 |
Aug. 17–28, 2011 | Mitt Romney 22% |
Rick Perry 22% |
Ron Paul 11% |
Michele Bachmann 10%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Herman Cain 4%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Fred Karger 0%, Thaddeus McCotter 0%, Buddy Roemer 0%, someone else/undecided 16% |
| Field[21] Margin of error: ±5.7% Sample size: 322 |
Jun. 3–13, 2011 | Mitt Romney 25% |
Rudy Giuliani 17% |
Sarah Palin 10% |
Ron Paul 7%, Herman Cain 6%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Rick Perry 5%, Michele Bachmann 4%, Tim Pawlenty 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Gary Johnson <0.5%, other/undecided 14% |
| Mitt Romney 30% |
Sarah Palin 12% |
Newt Gingrich 8% |
Ron Paul 8%, Herman Cain 7%, Rick Perry 6%, Michele Bachmann 5%, Tim Pawlenty 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Gary Johnson <0.5%, other/undecided 18% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[22] Margin of error: ±4.9% Sample size: 403 |
Jan. 28–30, 2011 | Mitt Romney 22% |
Newt Gingrich 18% |
Sarah Palin 16% |
Mike Huckabee 15%, Ron Paul 10%, Tim Pawlenty 3%, Mitch Daniels 2%, John Thune 1%, someone else/undecided 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[23] Margin of error: ±5.5% Sample size: 317 |
Oct. 29–31, 2010 | Mitt Romney 25% |
Sarah Palin 18% |
Newt Gingrich 15% |
Mike Huckabee 15%, Mike Pence 3%, Tim Pawlenty 2%, Mitch Daniels 1%, John Thune 1%, someone else/undecided 19% |
| Public Policy Polling[24] Margin of error: ±4.9% Sample size: 400 |
Sep. 14–16, 2010 | Mitt Romney 24% |
Newt Gingrich 21% |
Sarah Palin 18% |
Mike Huckabee 17%, Ron Paul 6%, someone else 5%, undecided 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[25] Margin of error: ±4.8% Sample size: 417 |
May 21–23, 2010 | Newt Gingrich 28% |
Mitt Romney 25% |
Sarah Palin 18% |
Mike Huckabee 13%, Ron Paul 10%, undecided 6% |
| Magellan Strategies[26] Margin of error: ±3.97% Sample size: 612 |
Feb. 25, 2010 | Mitt Romney 31% |
Sarah Palin 18% |
Mike Huckabee 13% |
Newt Gingrich 12%, Ron Paul 8%, Tim Pawlenty 3%, other candidate 3%, undecided 12% |
Winner: Mitt Romney
Primary date: June 5, 2012
Delegates: 26
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[27]
Margin of error: ±4.9%
|
Apr. 26–29, 2012 | Mitt Romney 66% |
Ron Paul 25% |
– | Undecided 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[28]
Margin of error: ±4.5%
|
Nov. 28–30, 2011 | Newt Gingrich 37% |
Ron Paul 12% |
Mitt Romney 11% |
Michele Bachmann 10%, Herman Cain 10%, Rick Perry 5%, Jon Huntsman 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, Gary Johnson 1%, Someone Else 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[29]
Margin of error: ±5.0%
|
Jun. 16–19, 2011 | Sarah Palin 20% |
Michele Bachmann 18% |
Mitt Romney 17% |
Newt Gingrich 9%, Ron Paul 9%, Herman Cain 8%, Tim Pawlenty 7%, Jon Huntsman 4%, Someone else/Not sure 9% |
| Michele Bachmann 25% |
Mitt Romney 22% |
Newt Gingrich 11% |
Ron Paul 10%, Tim Pawlenty 9%, Herman Cain 8%, Jon Huntsman 4%, Someone else/Not sure 10% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[30]
Margin of error: ±4.2%
|
Nov. 10–13, 2010 | Sarah Palin 23% |
Mike Huckabee 22% |
Newt Gingrich 16% |
Mitt Romney 12%, Ron Paul 9%, Tim Pawlenty 3%, John Thune 3%, Mitch Daniels 2%, undecided 10% |
Winner: Mitt Romney
Primary date: June 5, 2012
Delegates: 50
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University[31]
Margin of error: ±4.3%
|
Apr. 3–9, 2012 | Mitt Romney 51% |
Rick Santorum 14% |
Newt Gingrich 9% |
Ron Paul 7%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Don't know/No answer 14% |
| Rutgers-Eagleton Institute of Politics[32]
Margin of error: ±5.9%
|
Feb. 9–11, 2012 | Mitt Romney 36% |
Rick Santorum 19% |
Newt Gingrich 11% |
Ron Paul 11%, Someone else 11%, None of them 3%, Don't know 8% |
| Quinnipiac University[33]
Margin of error: ±4.6%
|
Jan. 10–16, 2012 | Mitt Romney 40% |
Newt Gingrich 14% |
Rick Santorum 14% |
Ron Paul 12%, Jon Huntsman 4%, Rick Perry 2%, Wouldn't vote 3%, DK/NA 13% |
| Mitt Romney 41% |
Rick Santorum 15% |
Newt Gingrich 14% |
Ron Paul 12%, Rick Perry 2%, Wouldn't vote 3%, DK/NA 13% | ||
| Quinnipiac University[34]
Margin of error: ±4.2%
|
Nov. 9–14, 2011 | Mitt Romney 29% |
Newt Gingrich 22% |
Herman Cain 12% |
Ron Paul 6%, Jon Huntsman 4%, Michele Bachmann 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, someone else 2%, wouldn't vote 2%, DK/NA 16% |
| Quinnipiac University[35]
Margin of error: ±2.9%
|
Oct. 5–10, 2011 | Mitt Romney 28% |
Herman Cain 17% |
Ron Paul 11% |
Rick Perry 7%, Newt Gingrich 5%, Michele Bachmann 4%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, someone else/undecided 23% |
| Public Policy Polling[36]
Margin of error: ±5.7%
|
Jul. 15–18, 2011 | Chris Christie 38% |
Mitt Romney 13% |
Michele Bachmann 12% |
Ron Paul 9%, Rick Perry 8%, Herman Cain 5%, Newt Gingrich 4%, Tim Pawlenty 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%, someone else/not sure 8% |
| Mitt Romney 22% |
Michele Bachmann 21% |
Ron Paul 11% |
Rick Perry 10%, Herman Cain 8%, Newt Gingrich 7%, Tim Pawlenty 5%, Jon Huntsman 3%, someone else/not sure 12% | ||
| Mitt Romney 21% |
Michele Bachmann 18% |
Sarah Palin 16% |
Ron Paul 10%, Rick Perry 10%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Tim Pawlenty 6%, Herman Cain 5%, Jon Huntsman 2%, someone else/not sure 5% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[37]
Margin of error: ±4.9%
|
Jan. 6–9, 2011 | Mike Huckabee 18% |
Mitt Romney 18% |
Newt Gingrich 15% |
Sarah Palin 14%, Ron Paul 8%, Tim Pawlenty 4%, Mitch Daniels 3%, John Thune 2%, someone else/undecided 19% |
Winner: Mitt Romney
Primary date: June 5, 2012
Delegates: 23
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38]
Margin of error: ±5.7%
|
Dec. 10–12, 2011 | Newt Gingrich 39% |
Mitt Romney 14% |
Gary Johnson 11% |
Ron Paul 8%, Rick Perry 8%, Michele Bachmann 6%, Rick Santorum 3%, Jon Huntsman 2%, someone else/not sure 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[39]
Margin of error: ±4.9%
|
Jun. 23–26, 2011 | Michele Bachmann 22% |
Mitt Romney 22% |
Sarah Palin 14% |
Herman Cain 10%, Ron Paul 7%, Tim Pawlenty 7%, Newt Gingrich 4%, Jon Huntsman 3%, someone else/not sure 12% |
| Michele Bachmann 27% |
Mitt Romney 23% |
Herman Cain 12% |
Ron Paul 8%, Tim Pawlenty 7%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Jon Huntsman 4%, someone else/not sure 13% | ||
| Michele Bachmann 21% |
Mitt Romney 18% |
Gary Johnson 13% |
Sarah Palin 11%, Herman Cain 10%, Tim Pawlenty 7%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Ron Paul 5%, someone else/not sure 9% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[40]
Margin of error: ±5.2%
|
Feb. 4–6, 2011 | Sarah Palin 20% |
Mike Huckabee 17% |
Mitt Romney 16% |
Newt Gingrich 13%, Gary Johnson 13%, Tim Pawlenty 6%, Ron Paul 4%, Mitch Daniels 3%, someone else/undecided 8% |
| Sarah Palin 22% |
Mike Huckabee 18% |
Mitt Romney 16% |
Newt Gingrich 15%, Tim Pawlenty 7%, Ron Paul 6%, Mitch Daniels 3%, someone else/undecided 12% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[41]
Margin of error: ±5.4%
|
Feb. 18–20, 2010 | Mitt Romney 33% |
Sarah Palin 32% |
Mike Huckabee 18% |
undecided 17% |
Winner: Mitt Romney
Primary date: June 5, 2012
Delegates: 28
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nielson Brothers Polling[42]
Margin of error: ±5.68%
|
Dec. 6–9, 2011 | Ron Paul 22% |
Newt Gingrich 19% |
Michele Bachmann 18% |
Rick Perry 15%, Mitt Romney 10%, undecided 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[43]
Margin of error: ±4.5%
|
Jan. 28–30, 2011 | Sarah Palin 21% |
Mike Huckabee 19% |
Mitt Romney 17% |
Newt Gingrich 12%, Ron Paul 7%, Tim Pawlenty 5%, Mitch Daniels 1%, undecided 19% |
| John Thune 37% |
Sarah Palin 12% |
Mitt Romney 12% |
Mike Huckabee 11%, Newt Gingrich 10%, Ron Paul 5%, Tim Pawlenty 2%, Mitch Daniels 1%, undecided 10% |
Winner: Mitt Romney
Primary date: June 26, 2012
Delegates: 40
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[44]
Margin of error: ±4.9%
|
Jul. 8–10, 2011 | Mitt Romney 63% |
Jon Huntsman 10% |
Michele Bachmann 6% |
Sarah Palin 5%, Herman Cain 4%, Ron Paul 4%, Rick Perry 4%, Newt Gingrich 3%, Tim Pawlenty 1% |
| Mitt Romney 60% |
Jon Huntsman 12% |
Michele Bachmann 8% |
Ron Paul 5%, Herman Cain 4%, Rick Perry 4%, Newt Gingrich 2%, Tim Pawlenty 2%, Someone else/Undecided 4% | ||
| Mitt Romney 82% |
Jon Huntsman 14% |
– | Someone else/Undecided 4% | ||
| Deseret News/KSL[45]
Margin of error: ±4.4%
|
Feb. 8–10, 2011 | Mitt Romney 72% |
Jon Huntsman 15% |
– | |
| Lake Tribune/Mason Dixon[46]
Margin of error: ±6.7%
|
Apr. 26–28, 2010 | Mitt Romney 73% |
Sarah Palin 9% |
Ron Paul 5% |
Newt Gingrich 4%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Tim Pawlenty 1%, other candidate 3%, undecided 4% |
| Dan Jones Poll[47]
Margin of error: ±6.2%
|
Apr. 27, 2009 | Mitt Romney 55% |
Jon Huntsman 32% |
– | other candidate/undecided 13% |
See also
[edit]- Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries
- Straw polls for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012
- Nationwide opinion polling for the Republican Party 2012 presidential primaries
References
[edit]- ^ James Oliphant, "Herman Cain drops out of presidential race" (December 3, 2011). Los Angeles Times.
- ^ Sarah Wheaton, "Bachmann Says She Will Not Continue in the Race" (January 4, 2012). New York Times.
- ^ Zeleny, Jeff; Shear, Michael D. (January 19, 2012). "Perry to End Bid for Presidency". The Caucus. The New York Times. Retrieved January 19, 2012.
- ^ Blake, Aaron; Henderson, Nia-Malika (April 10, 2012). "Rick Santorum drops out of the presidential race". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 19, 2012.
- ^ "Gingrich Drops Out of the Race". Election Coverage 2012. Retrieved 1 May 2012.
- ^ Kate O'Hare, "Tim Pawlenty quits after third-place straw-poll finish" (August 14, 2011). Los Angeles Times.
- ^ Robert J. Vickers, "Pawlenty to headline state GOP meeting" (January 3, 2012). The Patriot-News.
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Public Policy Institute
- ^ Field
- ^ Field
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ Public Policy Institute
- ^ Field
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times
- ^ Field
- ^ USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times
- ^ Field
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Magellan Strategies
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ "Quinnipiac University". Archived from the original on 2012-09-12. Retrieved 2012-11-30.
- ^ "Rutgers-Eagleton Institute of Politics" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2012-03-12. Retrieved 2012-11-30.
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Nielson Brothers Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Deseret News/KSL
- ^ Lake Tribune/Mason Dixon
- ^ Dan Jones Poll