User:N2e/sandbox/Economics of space launch

For general commercial use of space, see Commercialization of space.

Astronaut Dale A. Gardner holding a "For Sale" sign

The economics of space launch deals with the cost to supply and the price to purchase orbital space transport services, and the resultant (coordination problem) effects and consequences which emerge. Orbital spaceflight is generally defined as flight beyond the Kármán line—above the nominal edge of space at 100 km (62 mi) Earth altitude) at a velocity that will ensure the spacecraft will stay in orbit sufficiently long to perform some economically useful service.

Space transport is essentially a FOURTH form of HUMAN transportation—developed by humans after the middle of the 20th century—after land mobility,[DISTINGUISH POWERED VS. HUMAN POWERED...] rail mobility and air/aviation mobility ...

Cost affects both government and commercial customers of space launch services, and so has been an important, but not determinative factor since the beginning of the space age. Market prices have only begun to appear, and have (the expected?) ordinary effects in exchange relations of market allocation of goods and services, since approximately the 2000s, although the prices for commsat launches were more influenced by market prices from approx. the mid-1980s. (while governments GENERALLY allowed sale of commsat launch services to non-domestic enterprises (note: this is addressed in the AIAA c. apr 2014 article ...)

[Granularity summary]

Prices may be presented in normalized price per unit mass, say US dollars per kilogram, but space transport services may not, at present, be purchased by the kilogram. Rather space launch services are purchased as a set of services for a launch of a particular satellite of a specific mass and volume characteristic, along with a fairly broad array of other services and characteristics. This basket of services typically (may include?) includes integration of the ... Specification of the date and time of launch, as well as choosing the specific set of orbital elements to be targeted, is generally the perogative of the _____________; in the commercial launch industry, this belongs to the entity that has contracted for the primary payload. Mass, volume and orbital elements constraints are typically limited by the specific launch vehicle utilized for the launch. Classes of payloads are typically broken down... distinguished ... as large commsat, small commsat, or small satellites more generally. Small sats are _________ further broken down into categories of

Having said that, the price to launch a unit mass of spacecraft to a particular orbital altitude and a particular orbital inclination are the principle three metrics used to differentiate space launch costs of the various launch system launch system providers... For launches from Earth, orbital altitude is generally considered in broad bands—LEO/MEO/HEO—where economic _____ are generally in the lower altitudes of each broad range.

The cost of space access ... generally high > US$n thousand per kilogram in _________--- time frame trending down, especially in the NewSpace or private spaceflight paradigm of a new entrant, not tied to all across-the-board existing technologies or ways of doing business, as exemplified by SpaceX? (sources go here!)

the early decades of the Space Age, the government space agencies of the Soviet Union and United States pioneered space technology augmented by collaboration with affiliated design bureaus in the USSR and private companies in the US. The European Space Agency was formed in 1975, largely following the same model of space technology development.

Later on, large defense contractors began to develop and operate space launch systems, derived from government rockets and commercial satellites.

APPLICATIONS Private spaceflight in Earth orbit includes communications satellites, satellite television, satellite radio, astronaut transport and sub-orbital and orbital space tourism.

Recently, entrepreneurs have begun designing and deploying competitive space systems to the national-monopoly governmental systems of the early decades of the space age. Successes to date include flying suborbital spaceplanes, launching orbital rockets, and flying a couple of orbital expandable test modules (Genesis I and II). Planned private spaceflights beyond Earth orbit include personal spaceflights around the Moon. Two private orbital habitat prototypes are already in Earth orbit, with larger versions to follow. Planned private spaceflights beyond Earth orbit include solar sailing prototypes (LightSail-3).

History of commercial space transportation

Launch of a Proton rocket

In a 2012 article in Bloomberg, author Michael Burgan asserted that there is a "grand tradition of private wealth furthering advances in rocketry and space exploration" dating back to the early rocketry experiments of Robert Goddard.

Despite those earlier private undertakings, during the principal period of spaceflight in the mid-twentieth century, only nation states developed and flew spacecraft above the Kármán line, the nominal boundary of space. Spaceflight was thus the monopoly province of a small group of national governments.

Both the U.S. civilian space program and Soviet space program were operated using mainly military pilots as astronauts. During this period, no commercial space launches were available to private FIRMS? operators?, and no private organization was able to offer space launches IN ANY NATION?.

Eventually,WHEN private organizations were able to both offer and purchase space launches, thus beginning the period of private spaceflight.

The first phase of private space operation was the launch of the first commercial communications satellites. The U.S. Communications Satellite Act of 1962 opened the way to commercial consortiaDEFINITION OR BETTER NOUN owning and operating their own satellites, although these were still launched on state-owned launch vehicles.

REDUCE THIS MATERIAL History of full private space transportation includes early efforts by Germany OTRAG company in the 20th century and numerous modern projects of orbital and suborbital launch systems in the 21st century. Last ones counts the manned programs also - most famous and important of them are suborbital flights of Virgin Galactic and orbital flights of SpaceX and other COTS participants.

Development of alternatives to government-provided space launch services began in earnest in the 2000s. Private interests began funding limited development programs, but the US government later sponsored a series of programs to incentivize and encourage private companies to begin offering both cargo, and later, crew space transportation services.

By 2012, a private company had begun transporting cargo to and from the International Space Station (ISS), while a second private company was scheduled to begin making deliveries in 2013, ushering in a time of regular private space cargo delivery to and return from the government-owned space facility in low-Earth orbit (LEO). In this new paradigm for LEO cargo transport, the government contracts for and pays for cargo services on substantially privately developed space vehicles rather than the government operating each of the cargo vehicles and cargo delivery systems. As of 2013, there is a mix of private and government resupply vehicles being used for the ISS, as the Russian Soyuz and Progress vehicles, and the European Space Agency (ESA) ATV (through 2014) and the Japanese HTV (through 2014) remain in operation after the 2011 retirement of the US Space Shuttle.

Wired magazine went so far as to say that 2012 was "the year of private space," recounting the success of SpaceX in conducting two launches to the ISS, with progress toward emerging competition in that industry sector, while also highlighting the well-funded capital and experienced engineering teams behind the startup companies Planetary Resources–asteroid mining–and Golden Spike–private human Lunar surface excursions.

In June 2013, British newspaper The Independent' claimed that "the space race is flaring back into life, and it's not massive institutions such as Nasa that are in the running. The old view that human space flight is so complex, difficult and expensive that only huge government agencies could hope to accomplish it is being disproved by a new breed of flamboyant space privateers, who are planning to send humans out beyond the Earth's orbit for the first time since 1972," particularly noting projects underway by Mars One, Inspiration Mars Foundation, Bigelow Aerospace and SpaceX.

European state-sponsorship

Main article: Arianespace

On March 26, 1980, the European Space Agency created Arianespace, a company to be operated commercially after initial hardware and launch facilities were developed with government funding. Arianespace produces, operates and markets the Ariane launcher family. By 1995 Arianespace lofted its 100th satellite and by 1997 the Ariane rocket had its 100th launch. Arianespace's 23 shareholders represent scientific, technical, financial and political entities from 10 different European countries.

Private European

Main article: OTRAG

American deregulation

From the beginning of the Shuttle program until the Challenger disaster in 1986, it was the policy of the United States that NASA be the public-sector provider of U.S. launch capacity to the world market.

On October 30, 1984, United States President Ronald Reagan signed into law the Commercial Space Launch Act. This enabled an American industry of private operators of expendable launch systems. Prior to the signing of this law, all commercial satellite launches in the United States were restricted by Federal regulation to NASA's Space Shuttle.

On November 5, 1990, United States President George H. W. Bush signed into law the Launch Services Purchase Act. The Act, in a complete reversal of the earlier Space Shuttle monopoly, ordered NASA to purchase launch services for its primary payloads from commercial providers whenever such services are required in the course of its activities.

Commercial launches outnumbered government launches at the Eastern Test Range in 1997.

Russian privatization

In 1992, Resurs-500 capsule containing gifts was launched from Plesetsk Cosmodrome in what was a private spaceflight called Europe-America 500. The flight was conceived by the Russian Foundation for Social Inventions and TsSKB-Progress, a Russian rocket-building company, to increase trade between Russia and USA, and promote use of technology once reserved only for military forces. Money for the launch was raised from a collection of Russian companies. The capsule parachuted into the Pacific Ocean and was brought to Seattle by a Russian missile-tracking ship.

The Russian government sold part of its stake in RSC Energia to private investors in 1994. Energia together with Khrunichev constituted most of the Russian manned space program. In 1997, the Russian government sold off enough of its share to lose the majority position.

American subsidization

Main article: Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle

In 1996 the United States government selected Lockheed Martin and Boeing to each develop Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicles (EELV) to compete for launch contracts and provide assured access to space. The government's acquisition strategy relied on the strong commercial viability of both vehicles to lower unit costs. This anticipated market demand did not materialize, but both the Delta IV and Atlas V EELVs remain in active service, with considerable subsidies from the US government.

Launch alliances

Since 1995 Khrunichev's Proton rocket is marketed through International Launch Services while the Soyuz rocket is marketed via Starsem. The Sea Launch project flies the Ukrainian Zenit rocket.

In 2003 Arianespace joined with Boeing Launch Services and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to create the Launch Services Alliance. In 2005, continued weak commercial demand for EELV launches drove Lockheed Martin and Boeing to propose a joint venture called the United Launch Alliance to service the United States government launch market.

Russian reregulation, and the rise of India and China in the space launch market

CHINA might come first here, with the Russian rereg and Indian commercial offerings closer to 2014 (altho for diff. reasons)

Market options for human spaceflight

On February 1, 2010, United States President Barack Obama proposed in a speech that NASA exit the business of flying astronauts from Earth to low-Earth orbit—the locus of human spaceflight ever since the last Lunar manned mission in 1972—and move it to private companies who contract with the government to provide cargo resupply services to the ISS. The proposal acted on the findings of the 2009 Augustine Commission and built on the success of the Commercial Resupply Services that outsourced American cargo delivery to the International Space Station.'

In June 2012, private Dutch non-profit Mars One announced a private one-way (no return) human mission to Mars with the aim to establish a permanent human colony on Mars. The plan is to send a communication satellite and path finder lander to the planet by 2016 and, after several stages, land four humans on the Martian surface for permanent settlement in 2023. A new set of four astronauts would then arrive every two years.

In December 2012, a private US company, Golden Spike, announced plans for commercial human spaceflight missions to the Moon by no earlier than 2020. Their plan projects development budget of between $7 and $8 billion, followed by around $1.5 billion per each "two-human lunar surface mission". PRICING FULL-PACKAGE ROUND-TRIP MOON VISITS TO MAJOR PLAYERS INCLUDING NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS AT ANNOUNCED? PRICES

In February 2013, the US nonprofit Inspiration Mars Foundation announced a plan to send a married couple on a 2018 mission to travel to Mars and back to Earth on a 501-day round trip, with no landing planned on Mars. The mission will take advantage of an infrequently-occurring free return trajectory—a unique orbit opportunity which occurs only once every fifteen years—and will allow the space capsule to use the smallest possible amount of fuel to get it to Mars and back to Earth. The two-person American crew – a man and a woman – will orbit around Mars at a distance of 100 miles (160 km) of the surface. "If anything goes wrong, the spacecraft should make its own way back to Earth — but with no possibility of any short-cuts home."

LATER

• COMPETITION FROM ORDINARY FREE ENTRANCE INTO MARKETS, OR FREEER THAN IT HAD BEEN FOR THE FIRST 40 YEARS....

...BEGINNINGS OF SEEING TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION THAT IS ORDINARILY SEEN IN COMPETITIVE TECH MARKETS

• EMERGING MARKET IN THE LAUNCH AND RELEASE OF Secondary payloadS
  • ELECTRIC PROPULSION AS A COST DRIVER/REDUCER FOR COMMERCIAL AND MILITARY COMMSATS, OR ALL SATS?
• LOWER SPACE ACCESS COSTS AS A DRIVER/FACILITATOR OF NEW AND DIFFERENT DESIGN PROCESSES FOR SATELLITES, WITH DIFFERENT TRADEOFFS (SEE AIAA SPRING 2014 ARTICLE, CIRCA APRIL)
• Interplanetary_spaceflight#Launch_windows -- economic issues of launch windows; tradeoffs; e.g., to Mars ...