2023 Nigerian presidential election in Kwara State
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The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Kwara State was held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.
Background
[edit]Kwara State is a large state in the North Central with a growing economy and vast natural areas but facing agricultural underdevelopment, deforestation, and insecurity.[2][3] The state's 2019 elections had a large swing towards the state APC. Although the APC had won most 2015 elections in Kwara, the vast majority of APC officeholders left the party in 2018 to follow Senator Bukola Saraki into the PDP; despite the Saraki dynasty's longstanding control over Kwaran politics, the APC-led Ó Tó Gẹ́ movement swept the state in 2019. The APC won all three senate seats back and in the process, defeated Saraki by a wide margin. Similarly, the APC gained five PDP-held House seats to sweep all House of Representatives elections. On the state level, the APC gained the governorship and all but one seat in the House of Assembly. These results, coupled with presidential incumbent Muhammadu Buhari (APC) winning the state with nearly 70%, led to the categorization of the 2019 elections as a seismic shift in the state's politics.
Polling
[edit]| Polling organisation/client | Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
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|
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|
Others | Undecided | Undisclosed | Not voting | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinubu APC |
Obi LP |
Kwankwaso NNPP |
Abubakar PDP | |||||||
| BantuPage | January 2023 | N/A | 48% | 14% | 0% | 8% | – | 11% | 12% | 8% |
| Nextier (Kwara crosstabs of national poll) |
27 January 2023 | N/A | 35.9% | 25.6% | – | 30.8% | 2.6% | 5.1% | – | – |
| Stears | January 2023 | 500 | 26% | 11% | 2% | 6% | – | 51% | – | 6% |
| SBM Intelligence for EiE (Kwara crosstabs of national poll) |
22 January-6 February 2023 | N/A | 29% | 11% | 1% | 13% | 1% | 46% | – | – |
Projections
[edit]| Source | Projection | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa Elects[a][4] | Likely Tinubu | 24 February 2023 | |
| Dataphyte[b][5] | |||
| Tinubu: | 42.54% | 11 February 2023 | |
| Obi: | 17.66% | ||
| Abubakar: | 25.21% | ||
| Others: | 14.59% | ||
| Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence[c][6] |
Tinubu | 17 February 2023 | |
| SBM Intelligence[d][7] | Too close to call | 15 December 2022 | |
| ThisDay[e][8] | |||
| Tinubu: | 35% | 27 December 2022 | |
| Obi: | 10% | ||
| Kwankwaso: | 10% | ||
| Abubakar: | 40% | ||
| Others/Undecided: | 5% | ||
| The Nation[f][9][10] | Tinubu | 12-19 February 2023 | |
General election
[edit]Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Christopher Imumolen | |||
| AA | Hamza al-Mustapha | |||
| ADP | Yabagi Sani | |||
| APP | Osita Nnadi | |||
| AAC | Omoyele Sowore | |||
| ADC | Dumebi Kachikwu | |||
| APC | Bola Tinubu | |||
| APGA | Peter Umeadi | |||
| APM | Princess Chichi Ojei | |||
| BP | Sunday Adenuga | |||
| LP | Peter Obi | |||
| NRM | Felix Johnson Osakwe | |||
| New Nigeria Peoples Party | Rabiu Kwankwaso | |||
| PRP | Kola Abiola | |||
| PDP | Atiku Abubakar | |||
| SDP | Adewole Adebayo | |||
| YPP | Malik Ado-Ibrahim | |||
| ZLP | Dan Nwanyanwu | |||
| Total votes | 100.00% | |||
| Invalid or blank votes | N/A | |||
| Turnout | ||||
By senatorial district
[edit]The results of the election by senatorial district.
| Senatorial District | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Kwara Central Senatorial District[g] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Kwara North Senatorial District[h] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Kwara South Senatorial District[i] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By federal constituency
[edit]The results of the election by federal constituency.
| Federal Constituency | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Asa/Ilorin West Federal Constituency[j] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Baruten/Kaiama Federal Constituency[k] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Edu/Moro/Pategi Federal Constituency[l] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ekiti/Isin/Irepodun/Oke-ero Federal Constituency[m] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ilorin East/Ilorin South Federal Constituency[n] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Offa/Oyun/Ifelodun Federal Constituency[o] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By local government area
[edit]The results of the election by local government area.
| Local government area | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | Turnout (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |||
| Asa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Baruten | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Edu | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ekiti | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ifelodun | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ilorin East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ilorin South | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ilorin West | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Irepodun | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Isin | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kaiama | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Moro | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Offa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Oke Ero | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Oyun | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Pategi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
- ^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
- ^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Asa, Ilorin East, Ilorin South, and Ilorin West.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Baruten, Edu, Pategi, Kaiama, and Moro.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ekiti, Oke Ero, Offa, Ifelodun, Irepodun, Isin, and Oyun.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Asa and Ilorin West.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Baruten and Kaiama.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Edu, Moro, and Pategi.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ekiti, Irepodun, Isin, and Oke Ero.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ilorin East and Ilorin South.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ifelodun, Offa, and Oyun.
References
[edit]- ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
- ^ Hammad, Abdulrasheed (May 2022). "How charcoal, indiscriminate logging contribute to deforestation in Kwara". International Centre for Investigative Reporting. Retrieved 22 May 2022.
- ^ "It's coming South: Rising violence in Kwara". SBM Intelligence. 8 February 2022. Retrieved 18 April 2022.
- ^ Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
- ^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
- ^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (12 February 2023). "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.